600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation

Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 23, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings 3 S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues 4 S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins 5 S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 6 S&P 400 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 7 S&P 600 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 8 S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Earnings 9 S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth 10 S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings 11 S&P 500/400/600 Forward Revenues & Margins 12 S&P 500/400/600 P/Es 13 S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales 14 S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 15 S&P 400 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 16 S&P 600 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 17 S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels 18 S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings 19 S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings 20 S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2017 21 S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2018 22 S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 23 S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues 24 S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 25 S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 26 S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales 27 S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 28 S&P 500 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 29 S&P 400 Sectors Forward Earnings 30 S&P 400 Sectors Forward Revenues 31 S&P 400 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 32 S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Es 33 S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Sales 34 S&P 400 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 35 continued...

January 23, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

S&P 400 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index S&P 600 Sectors Forward Earnings S&P 600 Sectors Forward Revenues S&P 600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Es S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Sales S&P 600 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index S&P 600 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Es S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Sales

January 23, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46


S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings Figure 1. 175 150

175

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE

19

(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

17

18

1/18

150

Consensus Forecasts 125

125

Annual Earnings Forward Earnings*

100

100

75

75 2017 2018 2019 Frwd Jan 11 131.48 150.15 165.35 150.73 Jan 18 131.58 151.76 167.31 152.66

50

50 2003

125

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019 125

S&P 400

19

105 85

2015

17

1/18

105

18

Consensus Forecasts

85


65

65

45

45

Jan 11 Jan 18

2017 2018 2019 Frwd 89.85 106.26 117.93 106.71 90.21 106.99 119.21 107.70

25

25 2003

60

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019 60

S&P 600

50 40

2015

17

18

19

50

1/18

Consensus Forecasts

40


30

30

20

20

Jan 11 Jan 18 10

2017 39.21 39.32

2018 48.29 48.65

2019 54.96 55.47

Frwd 48.55 49.04

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2004

10 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 3 / January 23, 2018 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation


S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues Figure 2. 1400

1400

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE

(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

19

1300

18

1/18

1300

17 1200

1200

1100

1100

Consensus Forecasts Annual Revenues Forward Revenues*

1000

1000

900

900 2006

1600

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 1600

S&P 400 17

1400

18

19

1/18

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000


800

800

600

600 2006

975

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 975

S&P 600

19

1/18

850

850 18

725

725 17

600

600

Consensus Forecasts

475

350

475

Annual Revenues Forward Revenues*

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350 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins Figure 3. 13 12

13

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN

(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 17

18

19

12 1/18

11

11

10

10

9

9

Consensus Forecasts Annual Margins

8

8

Forward Margins* (11.5) 7

7

6

6 2006

8

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 8

S&P 400 19

1/18

7

7 17

18

6

6


5

5

Forward Margins* (7.2)

4

4 2006

7

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 7

S&P 600 17 18

6

6 19 1/18

5

5


4

4

Forward Margins* (5.2) yardeni.com

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2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

3

2019

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.



S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings Figure 4. 175

175



19

150

18

17

1/18

150

Consensus Forecasts Annual Forward*

125

125

100

100

75

75

2017 2018 2019 Frwd Jan 11 131.48 150.15 165.35 150.73 Jan 18 131.58 151.76 167.31 152.66 yardeni.com

50 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

50

2019

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 5. 39

39

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017 (consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

2017 By Quarter as of 01/18/18 37

Jan 11 Jan 18

Q4

Q1 30.90 30.90

Q2 32.58 32.58

Q3 33.45 33.45

Q4 34.78 34.95

37

Q3 35

35 Q2

33

33

Q1 31

29

31

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2016 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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IV

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S&P 400 Annual & Quarterly Earnings Figure 6. 125

125

S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE*

19

(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly) 105

17

Consensus Forecasts

1/18

105

18

Annual

85

85

52-Week Forward* 65

65

45

45

Jan 11 Jan 18

2017 2018 2019 Frwd 89.85 106.26 117.93 106.71 90.21 106.99 119.21 107.70

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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

25

2019

* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 7. 28

28

S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017 (consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

2017 By Quarter as of 01/18/18 26 Jan 11 Jan 18

Q4

Q1 20.30 20.30

Q2 23.16 23.16

Q3 23.34 23.34

Q4 23.83 23.80

26

Q3

24

24

Q2 22

22

20

20

Q1

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S&P 600 Annual & Quarterly Earnings Figure 8. 60 50

60

S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)

19 17

Consensus Forecasts

50

1/18

18

Annual

40

40

52-Week Forward* 30

30

20

20

Jan 11 Jan 18

2017 39.21 39.32

2018 48.29 48.65

2019 54.96 55.47

Frwd 48.55 49.04

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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

10

2019

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 9. 14

14

S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017 (consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

2017 By Quarter as of 01/18/18 13

13 Jan 11 Jan 18

Q1 8.70 8.70

Q2 9.73 9.73

Q3 9.91 9.91

Q4 10.60 10.63

12

12 Q4 Q3

11

11 Q2

10

10 Q1

9

9

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S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Earnings Figure 10. 38

38

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017 (consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly) Q4

36

36

Q3 Q2

34

34

32

32 Q1


Q1 30.90 30.90

Q2 32.58 32.58

Q3 33.45 33.45

30

Q4 34.78 34.95

28

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2016 28

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26

26 Q4 Q3

24

24

Q2 22

22

20

20

Q1


Q1 20.30 20.30

Q2 23.16 23.16

Q3 23.34 23.34

Q4 23.83 23.80

16

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2016 13

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II 2018 13


12

12 Q4 Q3

11

11 Q2

10

10 Q1

9

9


Q1 8.70 8.70

Q2 9.73 9.73

Q3 9.91 9.91

8

Q4 10.60 10.63

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S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth Figure 11. 22 20

22

S&P 500: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2017 (consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)

2017 By Quarter as of 01/18/18

18

Q1 14.6 14.6

Jan 11 Jan 18

16

Q2 10.0 10.0

Q3 7.2 7.2

Q4 11.2 11.7

Q1

14

20 18 16 14

12

Q4

12

10

Q2

10

8

8

Q3

6

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2016 20 18

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S&P 400: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2017


(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)

Q1 13.9 13.9

Jan 11 Jan 18

16

Q2 NA NA

Q3 12.4 12.4

Q4 9.7 9.5

Q2 Q1

14

10

18 16 14

Q3

12

20

12 10

Q4

8

8

6

6

4

4

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2016 30

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S&P 600: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2017 (consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)


25

Q1 8.7 8.7

Jan 11 Jan 18

Q2 6.1 6.1

Q3 5.5 5.5

Q4 10.3 10.6

25

20

20

15

15 Q4 Q1

10

10

Q2 Q3

5

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S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings Figure 12. 3350 2950 2550

S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES

1/23

(daily, ratio scale)

3350 2950 2550

2150

2150

1750

1750

1350

1350

950

950

550

550

S&P Stock Price Indexes

S&P 500 LargeCap (2839.13) S&P 400 MidCap (1993.88) S&P 600 SmallCap (979.19) yardeni.com

150

150

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 13. 185 160

185

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS

1/18

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

160

135

135

110

110

85

85

60

60

35

35

Forward Earnings*

S&P 500 LargeCap (152.66) S&P 400 MidCap (107.70) S&P 600 SmallCap (49.04)

yardeni.com

10

10

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500/400/600 Forward Revenues & Margins Figure 14. 1675 1475

1675

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES (dollars per share, ratio scale)

1475 1/18

1275

1275

1075

1075

875

875

675

675

475

475

Forward Revenues*

S&P 500 LargeCap (1311) S&P 400 MidCap (1428) S&P 600 SmallCap (894)

yardeni.com

275 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

275

2019

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 15. 12

12

S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*

1/18


11

10

10

9

9

S&P 500 (11.5) S&P 400 (7.2) S&P 600 (5.2)

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4 yardeni.com

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2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

3

2019




S&P 500/400/600 P/Es Figure 16. 28 26

28

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (weekly)

26

24

24

22

22

20

20 1/19

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12


10

10 yardeni.com

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8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 17. 28 26

28

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily)

26

24 22 20

24


22 1/23

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8 yardeni.com

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6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.



S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales Figure 18. 2.2

FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*

2.2

1/18

(weekly)


2.0

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

.8

.8

.6

.6 yardeni.com

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2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

.4

2019

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 19. 2.2

FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*

2.2

1/23

(daily)


2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

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2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

.8

2019

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.



S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins Figure 20. 1400

1400



19

1300

18

1/18

1300

17 1200

1200

1100

1100


1000

1000

900

900 2006

175 150

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 175


19


17

18

1/18

150

125

125

100

100

Consensus Forecasts

75

75


50

50 2006

13 12

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 13



19

18

12 1/18

11

11

10

10

9

9

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Margins Forward Margins* (11.5)

8

8

7

7 yardeni.com

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2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

6

2019




S&P 400 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins Figure 21. 1600

1600

S&P 400 17

1400

19

18

1/18

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000


800

800

600

600 2006

130 110

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 130


19

(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 17

110

1/18

18

90

90

70

70

Consensus Forecasts

50

50


30

30 2006

8

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 8



1/18

7

7 17

18

6

6


5

5


4 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

4

2019




S&P 600 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins Figure 22. 975 850

975


19


1/18 850

18 725

725 17

600

600

Consensus Forecasts 475

475

Annual Revenues Forward Revenues*

350

350 2006

65 55

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 65


(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 17

45

19

18

55 1/18 45

35

35

Consensus Forecasts

25

25


15

15 2006

7

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 7


(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

17 18

6

6 19 1/18

5

5


4

4


3 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

3

2019




S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels Figure 23. 3500

3500

S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION S&P 500 01/23/18

3000

x20 x18

S&P 500 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 01/18/18

2500

3000

2500

x16 x14

2000

2000 x12 x10

1500

1500

1000

1000

500

500 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2400

2400

S&P 400 01/23/18

2100

X20


1800

2100

X18 1800

x16 x14

1500

1500

x12 1200

1200 x10

900

900

600

600

300

300 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

1300

1300

1100

900

S&P 600 01/23/18

x22


x18

1100

x20 900

x16

700

700

x14 x12 x10

500

500

300

300 yardeni.com

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2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

100

2019

* Implied stock price index calculated using actual 52-week consensus expected forward earnings times hypothetical forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings Figure 24. 210 185

210 185

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES PER SHARE (ratio scale)

160 135

1/18

160 135

110

110

85

85

60

60

35

35

Forward Earnings* (152.7) Forward Revenues* Divided by 10 (131.1)

10

7% Growth Rate**

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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. ** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 25. 25

25

S&P 500 CONSENSUS ANNUAL OPERATING EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS (percent)

20

20

18

11

15

17 19

2011 (14.9) 2012 (6.0) 2013 (6.1) 2014 (7.0) 2015 (0.5) 2016 (1.5) 2017 (11.0) 2018 (15.7) 2019 (10.4)

10

5

0

12

13

5

15

16 0

Latest data thru 01/18/18 2009

2010

10

14

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15

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-5

2019

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings Figure 26. 80 70

80

S&P 500 SECTORS: FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials

60

Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities

50

70 60 50

40

40

1/18

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

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2014 140

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S&P 400 SECTORS:

100

IV

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120

III

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2017

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120 100

80

80

60

60 1/18

40

40

20

20

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S&P 600 SECTORS:

100

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120

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120 100

80

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60

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40

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1/18

20

20

0

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2014 2015 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2017 Figure 27. 80 70

80

S&P 500 SECTORS: 2017 EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care

60

Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities

70 60

50

50

40

40 1/18

30

30

20

20

10

10

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S&P 400 SECTORS:


160 140


120

160 140 120

100

100

80

80

60

60 1/18

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40 I

II

III

IV

I

II

2015 150

III

IV

I

II

2016

III

IV

I

2017

II 2018 150

S&P 600 SECTORS:


125 100


125 100

75

75

50

50 1/18

25

25

0

0

-25

-25 yardeni.com

-50 I

II

III

IV

I

2015 * Consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

II

III 2016

IV

I

II

III 2017


IV

I

-50

II 2018


S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2018 Figure 28. 80 70

80

S&P 500 SECTORS: 2018 EARNINGS PER SHARE*


60


50

70 60 50

40

40

1/18

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 I

II

III

IV

I

II

2016 180

III

IV

I

II

2017

III

IV

I

2018

II 2019 180

S&P 400 SECTORS:


160 140


120

160 140 120

100

100

80

80

60

60

1/18

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20 I

II

III

IV

I

II

2016 150

III

IV

I

II

2017

III

IV

I

2018

II 2019 150

S&P 600 SECTORS:


125


100

125 100

75

75

50

50 1/18

25

25

0

0 yardeni.com

-25 I

II

III

IV

I

2016 * Consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

II

III 2017

IV

I

II

III 2018


IV

I

-25

II 2019


S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings Figure 29. 210 180 150

S&P 500

INDUSTRIALS

(forward earnings*)

17 18

19

17 18

1/18

19

43 37

1/18

31

120

25

Annual consensus estimates Forward earnings

90

19

60 53 41

13 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 17

18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

1/18

17 18

29

17 19

18

19

1/18

75 60 45

17 30

5 37 31

15 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

CONSUMER STAPLES

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

MATERIALS

1/18

15 17

16 18

17 19

18

19

1/18

21 16

25

11

19

6

13 108 88 68 48

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

REAL ESTATE 17

28

18

19

16

17

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

1/18

3

1/18

1 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

18

19

FINANCIALS

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 19

32

1/18

17

17 18

18

19

1/18

13 11 9

Includes Real Estate through September 2016 8

65

17 15

20

80

9 7 5

8 56 44

26

7 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

HEALTH CARE

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES 1/18

50

17

18

19

1/18

18 17 16 15 14

35

13 12 yardeni.com

20 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

11

19

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues Figure 30. 1400 1300 1200

S&P 500

(forward revenues*)

17

18

19

410

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

19 17

1100

18

1/18

360 310

Annual consensus estimates Forward revenues

1000 900

260

800 550

210 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

475

16

17

18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

1/18

17

17 19

17

18

18

19

1/18

325 275

400

225

325

175

250 500 425

125 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

CONSUMER STAPLES 17

16 18

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

MATERIALS

1/18

220 17

350

18

19

200

1/18

275

180

200 775 675

160 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE

35

17 18

17

475

18 375

19

1/18

30

1/18 25

275

20 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

FINANCIALS

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

240

135 125

Includes Real Estate through September 2016

200 160

19

17 18

1/18

115 19

17 18

1/18 105

120 675 575

45 40

575

280

240

95 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

HEALTH CARE

475

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

1/18

165

375

150

17 18

275

19

1/18

135

yardeni.com

175 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

180

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

120

19

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin Figure 31. 13 12 11

S&P 500

17 18

(profit margin, percent)

19

12

INDUSTRIALS 17

1/18

18

19

9

Annual Forward* (11.5)

8 7

10

1/18

10

8

(9.6)

6 11

6 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14


9

15 17

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 18

19

7

1/18

1/18 20

5

15

(7.8)

3

(21.4)

1 7.5

10 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

CONSUMER STAPLES

15

16

17 18

7.0

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

MATERIALS

15 17

1/18

16

17 19

18

18

19

10 8

6.0

(6.9)

6

(10.9)

5.5

4 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE 17 18

9 17 18

6

19

19 1/18

18 15

1/18

12

(5.7)

3

(17.0)

9 6

0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

FINANCIALS

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

17

(18.2) 10

15

16

17

18

19


1/18

15

18

19

14 12

1/18

10


8

(11.8)

5 12.0

24 21

12

20

12

1/18

6.5

15

25

6 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

11.5

17 18

(10.8)

11.0

19

19

18

1/18

12

1/18

11

17

10.5

10

(11.5)

10.0

9

yardeni.com

9.5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

13

16

17

18

8

19

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es Figure 32. 20 18

S&P 500

(forward P/E)

23

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

(19.5)

P/E (18.5)

16

20

1/18

17

14 14

12

11

10 8 30

8 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (19.6)

(21.5)

20

1/18

1/18

20

16 12

15 10 22 20

8 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

CONSUMER STAPLES

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

MATERIALS

1/18

(19.6)

18

(18.8)

15

14

10

12 10

55

5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE (24.6)

45

55 45 1/18

1/18

25

35

15

25

5 18

15 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

FINANCIALS

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (14.2)

16

18

1/18

16

12

14

10

1/18


8

12 10

6

18

22 20

(12.5)

14

20

75 65

(38.0)

35

20

25 20

1/18

16

65

24

8 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

07

08

09

10

UTILITIES

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20 18

(16.6)

1/18

(17.2)

16

06

1/18

16

14

14

12

12

10

10 yardeni.com

8 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

8

19

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.



S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales Figure 33. 2.25 2.00 1.75

1/18

S&P 500

INDUSTRIALS

(forward P/S ratio)

2.00

1/18

1.75

(1.87)

1.50

P/S (2.14)

1.50

1.25

1.25

1.00

1.00

.75

.75

.50

.50 1.9

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


18

19

07

08

09

10

11

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1/18

4.5 4.0 3.5

(4.18)

(1.67)

1.3

12


1/18

1.6

06

3.0 2.5

1.0

2.0 .7

1.5

.4 1.6

1.0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

1.4

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

MATERIALS

19

1/18

1/18

(1.36)

18

2.25 2.00

(2.04)

1.75

1.2

1.50

1.0

1.25 1.00

.8

.75

.6 1.75

.50 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE

1.50

(1.41)

7

1/18

(6.47)

1/18

8 6

1.25

5

1.00

4 3

.75

2

.50 3.0

1 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

FINANCIALS

2.5

18

19

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


1/18

(2.59)

06

1.75

(1.47)

2.0

1.50

1/18

1.5

1.25 Includes Real Estate through September 2016

1.0

1.00

.5 2.25 2.00

2.00

.75 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

UTILITIES

(1.86)

1.75

06

19

2.25 2.00

1/18

(1.91)

1/18

18

1.75 1.50

1.50

1.25

1.25

1.00

1.00 yardeni.com

.75 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

.75 .50

19

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.



S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index Figure 34. 20 10

S&P 500

50

INDUSTRIALS

Jan

30

0

Jan

-10

10

-20

-10

-30 -40

NERI (12.9)

-50 60 40

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

-30

(17.3)

Net Earnings Revisions Index*

-50 21


95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21


40

20

20

Jan

Jan

0

0

-20

-20 (5.4)

-40

(16.5)

-40

-60 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 60 40

-60 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

CONSUMER STAPLES

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

MATERIALS

0 -20

(12.0)

-40

(11.1)

-60 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

ENERGY

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

REAL ESTATE

30 15

Jan

0

Jan

0

-15

-20 -40

-30

(-5.7)

(20.9)

-45

-60

20

40 20

Jan

Jan

20

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60

60

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

FINANCIALS

19

21

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21


Jan

Jan Includes Real Estate through September 2016

(29.4) 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

(-5.0) 21

HEALTH CARE

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

UTILITIES

10 Jan

0

Jan

-10

(2.4)

(2.4) -20 95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40

21

* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



S&P 500 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index Figure 35. 45 30

S&P 500

40

INDUSTRIALS Jan

15

Jan

20 0

0 -20

-15 -30

NERI (10.0)

Net Revenue Revisions Index*

-40

(16.3)

-60

-45 45 30

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Jan

15

-20

-15 -30

(5.6)

-40

(16.9)

-60

-45 30 20

20 0

Jan

0

40

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

CONSUMER STAPLES

MATERIALS Jan

Jan

10

40 20 0

0 -10

-20

-20 -30

(8.8)

-40

(14.1)

-40 60 40

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ENERGY

REAL ESTATE

15 Jan

20

Jan

0

-30

(-2.2)

(19.2)

-45

-60 20 10

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

FINANCIALS


Jan

Jan

-10

0 -20

-20 (9.7)

-40

(-4.0)

-40 20

40 20

0

-30

0 -15

-20 -40

30

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

HEALTH CARE

UTILITIES

10

20 10

Jan 0

0 Jan

-10 -20

-10 (4.4)

-20

(-5.6)

-30

-30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19





S&P 400

(forward earnings)

17 18

19

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

17 18

19

65 55 45

1/18

70

35


50

25

30 69 54

15 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14


15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15


1/18

17 19

17

39

16 18

18

19

1/18

110 70

24

30

9 115

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

CONSUMER STAPLES

15 17

85

16

17

18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

MATERIALS

1/18

17 19

18

19

1/18

17 18

19

25

100

9 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

REAL ESTATE 17

75

16 18

17 19

18

19

1/18

4

17

25 0

10 8 6

50 18

19

16

17

1/18

-25 95 75

49 39 29

55

125

150

2 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

FINANCIALS 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

1/18

55

20 10

17 18

17 18

19

35

30

1/18

0 -10 -20

15 115 95 75

-30 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

HEALTH CARE

15

16

17 19

17 18

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

UTILITIES

1/18

15

16

17 18

17 19

18

19

1/18

29 25

55

21

35

17 yardeni.com

15 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

13

19





S&P 400

17 18

(forward revenues*)

19

1100

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

17

18

19

900

1/18

700

1000


800

500

600 1250 1050 850

300 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


18

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15


17

16 18

1/18

17 19

18

19

1/18

1700 1300

650

900

450

250 3000 2400

500 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

CONSUMER STAPLES 17

16 18

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

MATERIALS 19

1800

17 19

1/18

18

19

400 300

600

200 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

REAL ESTATE

17 19

17 18

750

19

17

1/18

18

19

18

45 35

250 400

65 55

1/18

500

450

600 500

1/18

17 18

1200

1500 1250 1000

2100

25 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

FINANCIALS

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

19


1/18

350

17 18

19

1100 850 600 350

18

300

18

1/18

17 250 200 1800 1400

100 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

HEALTH CARE

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

1/18

1000

17

300 18

600

19 250

1/18 yardeni.com

200 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

350

16

17

18

200

19




S&P 400 Sectors Forward Profit Margin Figure 38. 9 8

S&P 400

8

INDUSTRIALS

(profit margin)

7

17 18

6

19

17 18

1/18

6 5 4

(6.3)

4 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


06

07

08

09

10

11

12

3 13

14

15

16

17

18

19


6

17

18

19

7

1/18

1/18

6

17 18

5

5

4

(5.9) 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

4

(6.8)

3 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

3 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

MATERIALS

6 19 17 18

4

17 18

1/18

19

1/18

7 6

3

5

(4.5)

2

20

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

(7.0) 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

4 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE 17

18

16 19

10

1/18

14 12

5

17

0

18

19

16

17

10

(14.0)

1/18

8

-5

6 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

FINANCIALS 17

15

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


1/18

12 8

18

12

4 17 18

9

(16.9)

6 8

20 18

(1.2)

15

18

9 8

5

25

9 8

19

7

7

7 1/18


5

8

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

19

1/18

0

(0.8) 14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

-4 13

14

15

16

17

UTILITIES

7

19

19 1/18

17

18

6

18

19

10

18

8

17

5

6

(6.5)

4 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

(10.9) 13

14

15

12

1/18

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com 14

15

16

17

18

4

19




S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Es Figure 39. 22 20 18

S&P 400

1/18

(forward P/E)

25

INDUSTRIALS (20.0)

1/18

20

16

15

14 12

10

P/E (19.2)

10

5

8 25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


06

07

08

09

10

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1/18

(20.4)

(16.4)

20

11

20 15

1/18 15

10 5

10 25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

MATERIALS

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

(15.7)

(19.3)

20

25 20

1/18

1/18

15

15

10 5

10 80

25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

REAL ESTATE (60.0)

60

14

15

16

17

18

19

(29.3)

1/18

60 50 40

40 1/18

30

20

20

0 25

10 06

07

08

09

10

11

FINANCIALS

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


(15.8)

1/18

(40.0)

20 1/18

15

10 30

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

(18.9)

(19.4)

20

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 24 20

1/18

1/18

16

15 12

10 yardeni.com

5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

8

19




S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Sales Figure 40. 1.75 1.50 1.25

S&P 400

1.50

INDUSTRIALS

(forward P/S ratio) P/S (1.38)

1/18

(1.25)

1/18

1.25 1.00

1.00

.75

.75

.50

.50 1.2

.25 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


1.0

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


(0.97)

18

19

1/18

1.25

(1.39)

1/18

1.50

1.00 .8 .75 .6

.50

.4 1.25

.25 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

12

13

14

15

16

17

MATERIALS

(0.86)

1.00

11

18

19

1.25

1/18

(1.09)

1.00

1/18 .75

.75

.50

.50

.25 3.5 3.0

.25 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE (0.77)

2.5

6

(4.10)

5

2.0

1/18

4

1.5

3

1.0

1/18

.5

2

.0 3.0

7

1 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

FINANCIALS

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


1/18

(2.67)

2.5

18

2.5 2.0

(0.55)

1.5 2.0 1.0 1.5

1/18

.5

1.0 2.00 1.75

.0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

UTILITIES (1.24)

1.50

18

19

1/18

(2.11)

2.0

1/18

1.25

2.5

1.5

1.00

1.0

.75 yardeni.com

.50 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

.5

19





S&P 400

Jan

30

INDUSTRIALS

Jan

15

0 -10

0

-20

-15

-30 -40

NERI (11.2)

-50 45 30


-30

(16.2)

-45

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19



15

20 Jan

Jan

-10

-15

-20 (9.6)

-30

(7.0)

-40

-45 30 20

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

CONSUMER STAPLES

MATERIALS Jan

10

Jan

0 -10 -20

(6.2)

(12.2)

-30 45 30

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ENERGY

REAL ESTATE

15

Jan

0

Jan

-15 -30 -45

(8.1)

(-4.5)

-60 45 30

10 0

0

-30

30

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

FINANCIALS


Jan

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 50 25

Jan

15

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50

0

0

-25

-15

-50

-30

(30.2)

-75

(1.7)

-100

-45 20

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

HEALTH CARE

UTILITIES

10

10 Jan

0

Jan

-10 -20

20

0 -10

(1.4)

-20

(-0.1)

-30

-30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19





S&P 400

30

INDUSTRIALS

10

Jan

Jan

0

15 0

-10

-15

-20 -30

NERI (5.9)


-30

(16.3)

-40 30

-45 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19



15

15 Jan

0

Jan

-15 -30

(2.1)

-30

(1.4)

-45 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

CONSUMER STAPLES

MATERIALS

30

Jan

15

30

(7.7)

-40

(15.7)

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ENERGY

REAL ESTATE

15

0 -10

-15

-20

-30 (5.0)

-30

(1.6)

-60 20

20 10

Jan

Jan

0

-45

20

-20

-30 45

40

0

Jan

0 -15

0 -15

-45 45

30

-40 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

FINANCIALS


10

60 40

Jan

20

0

0 Jan

-10 -20

(7.7)

-40

(-13.3)

-30 20

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

HEALTH CARE

UTILITIES

10

20 10

Jan

0

Jan

-10 -20

-20

0 -10

(0.8)

-20

(-1.8)

-30

-30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19





S&P 600

17 18

(forward earnings)

19

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

17 18

19

75 60

1/18

45

30

30


20

10 45 35

15 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


18

19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


1/18

17 19

17 18

25

18

19

1/18

35 20

15

5 115 95 75

65 50

5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

CONSUMER STAPLES

15

16 18

17 19

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

MATERIALS

1/18

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

1/18

45 35 25

55 15

35

5

15 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 85 70 55

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

17 18

19

18

19

REAL ESTATE

17

18

19

1/18

5.5

1/18

.5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

FINANCIALS

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

1/18

1.00 .75

17 18

40

.50

25 17 18

.25 19

1/18

.00 -.25

10 115 90

20.5 15.5 10.5

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

HEALTH CARE

15

16

17

17 18

19

65

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

UTILITIES 17 18

1/18

17 19

18

19

1/18

50 40

40

30

yardeni.com

15 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

20

19





S&P 600

19

(forward revenues*) 17

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

17 18

18

19

1400 1200

1/18

1000

600

800


450

600

300 1300 1050

400 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15


800

16 18

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15


1/18

17

16 18

17 19

18

19

1/18

17

325

550

225

300 5600 4600 3600

625 525 425

125 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

CONSUMER STAPLES

17 19

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

MATERIALS

1/18

16

17 18

17 18

2600

15

17 19

18

19

1/18

800 700 600 500

1600

400 600 4250 3250 2250

300 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

REAL ESTATE

17

19

19 1/18

17

1250

18

40

18

17 18

19

35 1/18

30

250 700 600

25 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

FINANCIALS

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


500 19

400 300

17

1/18

21 16 11 6

1/18

18 17 18

19

200 2250 1750

55 50 45

1 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

HEALTH CARE

17 19

1250

17

18

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

1/18

700 625 550 475

17

19

750 18

1/18

400 325

yardeni.com

250 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

250

19




S&P 600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin Figure 45. 8 7

S&P 600

6

INDUSTRIALS

(profit margin)

17

6 5

18

17 19


4 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

4

16

17

18

19


06

07

08

09

10

11

3 13

14

15

16

18

19

2

16

17

17

1/18

(3.3) 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

18

19

1/18

18

(7.5)

1 06

17 19

17

3

14

15

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

MATERIALS

4 17

17 18

19

4 1/18

3

(2.1) 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

(4.7) 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

2 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE

20

5

17

0

18

19

17

1/18

18

15

1/18

10

(12.2)

-5

5

(3.1)

-10 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

0 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

FINANCIALS

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 17 18

15

19

17

1/18

18

5

19 1/18

10

(16.9)

5 7

15 10

20

8

30 25

10

25

7

5

1/18

19

2 1

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

6

18

3

15

12


4

20

5 1/18

(4.6) 06

5

5

19

1/18

3 6

18

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

HEALTH CARE

15 17

6

16

(-0.1) 17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

-5 14

15

UTILITIES

16 18

17 19

18

5

18

19

1/18

12 10

17

19

4

0

8 1/18

3

6

2

(3.7)

1 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

(10.3) 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

yardeni.com 14

15

16

17

18

4

19




S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Es Figure 46. 24 20

S&P 600

25

INDUSTRIALS

(forward P/E)

1/18

(20.0)

1/18

20 15

16 12

10

P/E (20.8)

5

8 25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


(17.8)

1/18

(20.4)

20

20

1/18

15

15

10 5

10 25

25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

11

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

MATERIALS

(19.3)

20

12

(17.4)

25 20

1/18

1/18

15 15

10 5

10 80

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

REAL ESTATE (60.0)

60

14

15

16

17

18

19

(34.8)

1/18

60 50

40

40

1/18

30

20

20

0 25

10 06

07

08

09

10

11

FINANCIALS

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


(15.8)

(NA)

1/4

20 1/18

15

10 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10

70

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES 1/18

(40.8)

(22.3)

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 30 25

1/18 20 15 yardeni.com 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

10

19




S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Sales Figure 47. 1.4 1.2

S&P 600

INDUSTRIALS

(forward P/S ratio by sector)

(0.94)

1/18

P/S (1.08)

1.0

1.0

1/18

.8

.8

.6

.6 .4 1.0

.4 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


.8

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


1.50

(1.37)

(0.59)

1.75

1/18 1.25

1/18

.6

1.00 .4

.75 .50

.2 1.0

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

11

MATERIALS

13

14

15

16

17

(0.82)

(0.44)

.8

12

18

19

1/18

.8

.6

.6 1/18

.4

.4

.2 2.0

.2 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

ENERGY

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE (1.02)

1.5

7 6

(4.27)

5 1/18

1/18

1.0

4 3

.5

2

.0 3.5

1.0

1 06

07

08

09

10

11

FINANCIALS

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


(2.62)

3.0

06

2.5

(0.58)

1/18

2.5

3.0

2.0 1.5

2.0

1.0 1/18

1.5

.5

1.0 2.00 1.75

.0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

(1.49)

1.50

06

(2.31)

1/18

3.0 2.5

1/18

2.0

1.25 1.5

1.00

1.0

.75 yardeni.com

.50 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

.5

19





S&P 600

Jan

30

INDUSTRIALS Jan

0

15

-10

0

-20

-15

-30 -40

NERI (7.5)

-50 30 20


-30

(11.8)

-45

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Jan

10

10 Jan

0

-20

-20 (8.9)

-30

(0.6)

-40 30 20

-40 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

CONSUMER STAPLES

MATERIALS Jan

0

Jan

(-1.7)

-30

(3.2)

-45

-30 30

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ENERGY

REAL ESTATE

15

10

Jan Jan

-15 -30

0 -10 -20

(-4.9)

(10.7)

-30

-60 30

30 20

0

-45

0 -15

-10

45

30 15

10

-20

0 -10

-10 -30

20

-40 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

FINANCIALS


15

Jan

15 Jan

0

30

0 -15

-15 -30

-30 (17.5)

-45

(1.4)

-45 10 5

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

HEALTH CARE

UTILITIES Jan

0 -5

Jan

-10 -15

(1.1)

(-1.5)

-20 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19





S&P 600

30

INDUSTRIALS Jan

10

0

Jan

0

-15

-10 -20

NERI (4.6)


-30

(12.6)

-45

-30 30 20

15

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19



30 15

10

Jan

Jan

0 -10

0 -15

-20 -30

(5.2)

-30

(4.9)

-40 30

-45 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

CONSUMER STAPLES

MATERIALS

30

20 Jan

Jan

10

45

15 0

0 -10

-15 (13.0)

-30

(17.2)

-20 60 40

-45 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ENERGY

REAL ESTATE

20 10

20 Jan

0

Jan

-20 -40

-40 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

FINANCIALS


40

Jan

Jan

0 -20

-10 (-0.9)

-40

(-1.1)

-20

-60 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

HEALTH CARE

UTILITIES Jan

5

30 20

10

10 0

0

Jan

-10

-5 -10

60

20

0

15

-10 -30

10

20

0 -20

(-4.3)

(5.4)

-60 20

30

(-1.3)

-20

(5.9)

-15

-30 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19




S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin Figure 50. 14 12 10

S&P 500/400/600

1/18

(profit margin)

11

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

9 7

8 6


4 2 0 9

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


19

06

07

08

3 1 09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


1/18

(7.8) (5.9) (3.3)

7

18

5

(9.6) (6.3) (4.6) 18

19

1/18

20

(21.4) (6.8) (7.5)

5

15 10

3

5

1 12 10

0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

CONSUMER STAPLES

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

16

17

18

19

1/18

10

6 4

(10.9) (7.0) (4.7)

2 0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

ENERGY

14

15

16

17

18

19

10

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

2 0 15

16

17

18

19

REAL ESTATE

(5.7) (1.2) (3.1)

15

20 15

1/18

10

(17.0) (14.0) (12.2)

0 -5 -10 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

FINANCIALS

15

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

5 0 17

18

19

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (18.2) (16.9) (16.9)

20

06

30 25

1/18

5

12

8

4

25

15

1/18

6

20

14

MATERIALS

(6.9) (4.5) (2.1)

8

25

25

(11.8) (0.8) (-0.1)

1/18

20 15

1/18

10 5

10

0

5 15

-5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

HEALTH CARE

13

14

15

16

17

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

UTILITIES

(10.8) (6.5) (3.7)

12

18

12

1/18

1/18

14

10

9

(11.5) (10.9) (10.3) yardeni.com

6 3 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

8 6 4

19




S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Es Figure 51. 25 20

S&P 500/400/600

25

INDUSTRIALS

(forward P/Es)

20

1/18

1/18

15

15

5 30

(19.5) (20.0) (20.3)


10

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06


25

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1/18

1/18

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

CONSUMER STAPLES

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

19

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

ENERGY (24.6) (45.0) (33.0)

30

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

5 19

40

1/18

30

(38.0) (29.3) (34.8)

0 08

09

10

11

12

13

14

FINANCIALS

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

20 10 13

14

15

16

17

18

19


(14.2) (15.8) (15.5)

25

15

60 50

(12.5) (40.0) (NA)

20

40 30 20

1/18

1/18

10

10

5 50

70

50

10 07

25

60

1/18

20

06

5

10

REAL ESTATE

40

10

20

(18.8) (15.7) (17.4) 06

15

15

10

30

18

1/18

1/18

15

35

17

MATERIALS

(19.6) (19.3) (20.8)

20

30

20

(19.6) (20.4) (18.3)

10

50

5 19

25

15

25

18


(21.5) (16.4) (17.8)

20

07

10

0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

HEALTH CARE

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

(17.2) (18.9) (40.8)

40 30

25

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

(16.6) (19.4) (22.3)

5

0 10

11

12

13

18

19

1/18

10

09

17

UTILITIES

1/18

08

16

15

10 07

15

20

20

06

14

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

yardeni.com 15

16

17

18

19




S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Sales Figure 52. 2.5 2.0

S&P 500/400/600 (forward P/Sales)

2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 .75 .50 .25 .00

1/18

INDUSTRIALS

1/18

1.5 1.0


.5 .0 2.0

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


1.6

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


1/18

(1.67) (0.97) (0.59)

1.2

18

(1.87) (1.25) (0.94) 18

19

1/18

3.75

(4.18) (1.39) (1.37)

.8 .4

1.50

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CONSUMER STAPLES

06

07

08

09

10

11

MATERIALS

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1/18

(2.04) (1.09) (0.82)

1/18

1.00 .75

(1.36) (0.86) (0.44)

.50 .25 .00

2.5

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

ENERGY

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1.50

5 4

1.0

(6.5) (4.1) (4.3)

.5 .0 07

08

09

10

FINANCIALS

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

3 2 1 13

14

15

16

17

18

19


(2.59) (2.67) (2.62)

3.0

18

(1.47) (0.55) (0.58)

1/18

2.5

8 6

1/18

06

2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 .75 .50 .25 7

1/18

1.5

3.5

12

REAL ESTATE

(1.41) (0.77) (1.02)

2.0

4.0

2.25

.00 06

1.25

3.0

3.00

.75

.0 1.75

4.50

2.5 2.0

1/18

1.5

2.0

1.0

1.5 .5

1.0 .5 2.5

.0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

HEALTH CARE

2.0

07

08

09

10

UTILITIES

(1.86) (1.24) (1.49)

1.5

06

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

3.0

(1.91) (2.11) (2.31)

1/18

3.5

2.5 2.0

1/18

1.5

1.0

1.0 yardeni.com

.5 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

.5

19




Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on http://blog.yardeni.com www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, http://blog.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. [email protected]

600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation

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