Ham Trends Provided by: National Pork Board
Contents Ham definitions Ham nutritional profile In-home ham consumption In-home ham intake development indices Ham sales at retail Away-from-home ham consumption
2
Ham definitions
Ham defined Hind leg of a hog Types: Wholes, halves, portions, boneless, bone-in, semi-boneless skinless shankless, spiral sliced, steak/slices, country hams, canned Formats: Fresh, cured, cured-and-smoked, ready-to-eat (fully cooked hams, canned and prosciutto), luncheon and deli ham
Source: www.fsis.usda.gov
4
Ham label designations Ham contains no added water is at least 20.5% protein
Ham with Natural Juices contains at least 18.5% protein
Ham - Water Added contains at least 17% protein, with 10% added solution
Ham and Water Product may contain any amount of water but the label must state the percent of “added ingredients” 5
Butt end, half or portion Upper, meatier part of whole leg Butt portion has some center slices removed for sale separately as ham steaks or center cut ham slices. The half includes this meat. Semi-boneless Ham
Source: www.fsis.usda.gov; www.cooksham.com
6
Half Ham
Portion Ham
Spiral sliced Bone-in ham that is pre-sliced Honey Baked Ham had exclusive patent on spiral slicing process (expired in 1981)
Source: Business Courier, June, 2001; www.cooksham.com
7
Skinless, shankless Skin and shank removed Leg bone and hip bone remain
Source: www.fsis.usda.gov; www.cooksham.com
8
Curing solutions Addition of salt, sodium nitrate, nitrites and sometimes sugars, seasonings, phosphates and ascorbates For preservation, color development and flavor enhancement Nitrate and nitrites contribute to cured flavor and reddish-pink color of cured pork Nitrite and salt inhibit bacteria growth Can be added by injection by needle or tumbling/massaging/soaked Source: www.fsis.usda.gov
9
Dry curing Country hams and prosciutto Fresh meat is rubbed with a dry-cure mixture of salt and other ingredients Process draws out moisture and results in more concentrated ham flavor Aged from a few weeks to more than a year, six months is common Can be injected with curing solutions or placed in curing solutions but they may not be smoked Source: www.fsis.usda.gov
10
Wet curing or brine cure Brine curing is most popular way of producing hams Wet cure whereby fresh meat is injected with a curing solution before cooking Smoke flavoring (liquid smoke) may also be injected
Source: www.fsis.usda.gov
11
Smoking and smoke flavoring After curing, some hams are smoked Process where hams are hung in a smokehouse and allowed to absorb smoke from smoldering fires Gives added flavor and color, slows development of rancidity Flavor depends upon what wood is used
Source: www.fsis.usda.gov, Albuquerque Journal, December, 2001
12
Ham nutritional profile
Nutritional Profile Ham is a lean protein 3.4-ounce serving of roasted extra-lean ham 145 calories 5.5 grams fat 21 grams of protein 53 milligrams cholesterol
Significant amount of thiamin (vitamin B-1) and vitamin B-12 Low and reduced sodium products available Ham steaks 94 % lean 14
Source: www.cooksham.com
In-home ham consumption
24% of individuals consume entree ham at least one time in an average two week period S IZ E O F M A R K E T H a m (E xc l L u n c h m e a t) % o f In d ivid u a ls C o n s u m in g a t L e a s t O n c e in T w o W e e k s 2 0 0 6 /2 0 0 7
76
24
C onsum e
D o N ot C onsum e
P e rc e n t o f In d ivid u a ls C o n su m in g a t L e a s t O n c e in T w o W e e k s b y Y e a r Y r. E n d in g F e b .
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
H a m (E x cl L u n c h m ea t)
1 9 .3
2 0 .9
1 9 .5
1 7 .0
1 8 .8
1 9 .2
1 7 .8
2 2 .0
2 4.1
2 4 .0
A ll d a ta is fo r ye a r e n d in g F e b ru a ry.
16
Page 5
And, almost 30% of individuals consume ham lunchmeat regularly at least one time in an average two week period. S IZ E O F M A R K E T H a m L u n c h m e a t (P o rk B a s e d ) % o f In d iv id u a ls C o n s u m in g a t L e a s t O n c e in T w o W e e k s 2 0 0 6 /2 0 0 7
72
28
C onsum e
D o N ot C onsum e
P e rc e n t o f In d ivid u a ls C o n s u m in g a t L e a s t O n c e in T w o W e e k s b y Y e a r Y r. E n d in g F e b .
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
H a m L u n c h m e a t (P o rk B a s e d )
3 5 .7
3 8 .8
3 7 .5
3 8 .0
3 7 .5
3 6 .9
3 8 .1
3 2 .4
2 6 .8
2 8 .4
A ll d a ta is fo r ye a r e n d in g F e b ru a ry.
17
Page 5
Ham entrée consumption has rebounded from 2004. T R E N D IN P E R C A P IT A C O N S U M P T IO N H am (E xcl Lunchm eat) An n u al E atin g s P er C a p ita 12.89 10.31
10.07 9.10
8.48
9.29 8.02
7.46
1998
1999
A ll data is for year ending F ebruary.
18
12.42
11.17
2000
2001
2002
P age 6
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Ham consumed most at dinner meal; lunchmeat at midday Ham entrees - % of Eatings In-Hom e Dinner
41
In-Hom e Lunch
38
In-Hom e Breakfast
12
Carried From Hom e
In-Hom e Snack
8
Ham lunchmeat - % of Eatings
1
53
In-Hom e Lunch
20
Carried From Hom e
19
In-Hom e Dinner
7
In-Hom e Breakfast
In-Hom e Snack
Two Years Ending February 2007 Source: The NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends
19
2
Entrée ham consumption skews to holiday months W E E K P A R T V S . S E A S O N A L IT Y P R O F IL E H a m (E x c l L u n c h m e a t) % o f E a tin g s 2 0 0 6 /2 0 0 7 69
27
S p rin g (M AM )
22
22
Sum m er (J JA)
F all (S O N )
In d e x to S a m p le In d s : E a tin g s 10 8 88
A ll d ata is fo r ye ar en d in g F e bru a ry.
20
88
29
31
W in te r (D J F )
W e e k en d (S S)
1 16
Page 8
10 8
W e e kd ay (M -F )
97
Ham lunchmeat consumption skews to spring/summer; weekday meals W E E K P A R T V S . S E A S O N A L IT Y P R O F IL E H a m L u n c h m e a t (P o rk B a s e d ) % o f E a tin g s 2 0 0 6 /2 0 0 7 74
30 24
23
F a ll (S O N )
W in te r (D J F )
23
S p rin g (M A M )
Sum m er (J J A )
In d e x to S a m p le In d s : E a tin g s 92 120
A ll d a ta is fo r ye a r e n d in g F e b ru a ry.
21
96
92
Page 8
26
W e e k e n d (S S)
91
W eekday (M -F )
104
s5
Vegetables served most often with ham entrees % of In-Home Ham Entree Meals Which Include 49.9
Vegetables Potatoes Eggs/Omelettes Bread Salads Fruit Buns/Rolls Macaroni & Cheese Rice (Plain) Cheese Cakes Biscuits Pies Baked Beans/Pork & Beans Cookies Corn Bread/Muffins Stuffing
37.5 16.0 15.2 12.9 12.6 11.3 6.4 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.4
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends 2006
22
Corn
13.0
Green Beans
12.6
Peas
5.8
Mixed/Combo
4.0
Slide 22 s5
NOT UPDATED
schafers, 3/27/2007
55% as ingredient ; 43% eaten as an entrée U S A G E P R O F IL E H a m (E xcl L u n ch m e a t) H o w U se d ? % o f E a tin g s 2006/2007 55
2
43
B a s e D is h
A ll data is for year ending F ebruary.
23
In g re d ie n t
P age 10
Ad d itive
C o o k in g Aid
Most ham entrees prepared in oven or on the stove top A P P L IA N C E B Y P R E P A R A T IO N M E T H O D H a m (E x c l L u n c h m e a t) % o f E a tin g s 2 0 0 6 /2 0 0 7 T o p A p p lia n c e /P re p a ra tio n M e th o d s
N o A p p l/N o P re p M e th o d /N r
40
M ic ro w a v e
11
O v e n : B a k e d /R o a s te d
9
S to v e T o p : F rie d /P a n B ro ile d 7
S to v e T o p : W a rm e d /H e a te d N o A p p l: C h ille d /F ro z e n
5
O v e n : W a rm e d /H e a te d
5 4
S to v e T o p : B o ild /S te w e d /S im m r N o A p p l: U n c o o k e d /R a w
A ll d a ta is fo r ye a r e n d in g F e b ru a ry.
24
Summary No Appliance (leftover): Stove Top: Oven: Microwave:
8
3
Page 11
40% 19% 14% 11%
Ham Entree consumption skews to… In-Home - Based on Index to Total Sample >120 – 2006/2007
HH Income:
Under $10k, not $60K-$69K
HH Size:
Not 1 member
Age of Female Head:
55+
Employ. Of Fem. Head:
All averages
Occupation of HH Head:
Out of the Work Force
Race:
Black, not Asian
Census Regions:
Mid Atlantic… not New England, E.N. Central, Pacific
Life Cycle Segments:
Empty Nesters, Single Active Seniors, and Married Active Seniors…not Affluent Trad. Families
Age/Sex of Eater:
Adults 55+ … not kids <6
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends 2006
25
Ham Lunchmeat consumption skews to... In-Home - Based on Index to Total Sample >120 – 2006/2007
HH Income:
All income breaks are average
HH Size:
Not 1 member households, remainder are average
Age of Female Head:
Not <34 … others average
Occupation of HH Head:
Blue collar…not professional
Race:
Hispanic … Whites are average … not Asian, Black, or Other
Census Regions:
Mid-Atlantic….not New England or Pacific
Age/Sex of Eater:
Low/Mid Income Empty Nesters not kids <6
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends
26
Entrée consumption skews to South Central R E G IO N A L P R O F IL E H a m (E x c l L u n c h m e a t) % o f E a tin g s In d e x e d to S a m p le 2 0 0 6 /2 0 0 7 146 128 112 100
110
93 75
71
63
N ew E n g la n d
M id A tla n tic
E a s t N o rth C e n tra l
W e s t N o rth C e n tra l
% o f S a m p le
3 .9 %
1 5 .1 %
1 6 .3 %
9 .2 %
1 8 .7 %
6 .8 %
9 .7 %
7 .7 %
1 2 .7 %
% o f E a tin g s :
2 .8
1 5 .1
1 5 .2
1 0 .3
2 0 .5
9 .9
1 2 .5
5 .7
8 .0
N O T E : A n in d e x o f 8 0 - 1 2 0 is c o n s id e r e d a v e r a g e A ll d a t a is f o r y e a r e n d in g F e b r u a r y .
27
Page 15
S o u th A tla n tic
E a s t S o u th C e n tra l
W e s t S o u th C e n tra l
M o u n ta in
P a c ific
Ham lunchmeat consumption skews to Mid-Atlantic and West North Central REGIONAL PROFILE Ham Lunchmeat (Pork Based) % of Eatings Indexed to Sam ple 2006/2007
115
113 103
99
109
108 92 74
66
New England
M id Atlantic
East North Central
W est North Central
% of Sam ple
3.9%
15.1%
16.3%
9.2%
18.7%
6.8%
9.7%
7.7%
12.7%
% of Eatings:
2.5
17.5
16.1
10.4
19.2
7.4
10.5
7.1
9.4
NO TE: An index of 80-120 is considered average All data is for year ending February.
28
Page 15
South Atlantic
East South Central
W est South Central
M ountain
Pacific
Ham is the number one sandwich Percent of In-Home Lunches That Include Sandwiches 8
Ham
7 6
Poultry
5 4 3
Salad*
2 1 0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
*Includes: Ham Salad, Chicken Salad, Egg Salad, Tuna Salad etc. Source: The NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends 2006
29
In-home ham intake development indices
Intake development indices An econometric analysis conducted by Texas A&M University provided insight on consumption of meats over a six year period, among individuals 18 years and older Results showed the likelihood of consumption, measured as “intake development indices”
31
Intake development indices “Intake development” represents the relationship between intake (in grams over a 2week period) and individuals (both eaters and non-eaters) Above average development is when the share of intake is greater than the share of individuals (index >100) and translates to a percent advantage For example smoked ham development is 12% higher with “at most high school” than the average across education levels 32
Intake development demographic differences Canned ham and smoked ham development is highest with “at most high school” Canned ham intake is highest at lower incomes Smoked ham intake is highest at mid-income levels Ham intake is highest for individuals over 50 Intake Development Indices: = High Development = Low Development Source: Texas A&M Econometric Analysis 2003
33
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
At Most High School
112
132
Some College
93
82
At least Undergraduate Degree
92
73
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
Less Than $10,000
74
177
Between $10,000 and $20,000
92
177
Between $20,000 and $30,000
104
76
Between $30,000 and $40,000
97
82
Between $40,000 and $50,000
112
83
Between $50,000 and $60,000
114
101
Between $60,000 and $70,000
104
66
Between $70,000 and $100,000
111
89
Between $100,000 and $150,000
81
34
Greater than $150,000
65
51
Education
Income
Intake development demographic differences Ham intake is highest for individuals over 50 Ham, and overall pork intake development, is greater in males
Age
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
18 TO24
78
48
25 TO 29
86
84
30 TO 39
83
73
40 TO 49
95
83
50 TO 59
105
125
60 TO 64
123
111
65 AND UP
127
150
Gender
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
Male
121
106
Female
82
95
Intake Development Indices: = High Development = Low Development
Source: Texas A&M Econometric Analysis 2003
34
Intake development demographic differences Hispanic intake strong for canned hams Canned hams have high development among African Americans and low development with Caucasians and Orientals Smoked ham intake is above average in rural areas
Ethnicity
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
Hispanic
58
121
Non Hispanic
102
99
Race
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
White
103
84
Black
101
305
Oriental
29
65
Other
34
67
Urbanization
Smoked Ham
Canned Ham
SMSA
94
101
NONSMSA
117
97
Intake Development Indices: = High Development = Low Development Source: Texas A&M Econometric Analysis 2003
35
Ham sales at retail
Ham dollar sales are back up after a slight decline in 2006 This was driven by increased tonnage (+1.2%) and a slight increase in price
Ham Dollar Sales - % Change 2005
2006
2007 2.0%
2.0%
-0.9% 2005 vs. 2004
2006 vs. 2005
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007 vs. prior years
37
2007 vs. 2006
In 2007, entrée hams continued to generate the greatest sales Total Ham $ Sales RFG Dinners 1%
Entrée Hams $ Sales
All Other 4% Ham Steaks 14%
2007 % Share Entrée Hams 81%
Whole 17%
Ham Steaks 8%
Halves 57%
Within Entrée Hams Portion 19%
Total Ham Pounds Sold RFG Ham <1%
Quarter 7%
Entrée Ham Pounds Sold Quarter 4%
All Other 4%
Whole 18%
Entrée Hams 87%
Within Entrée Hams
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007
Portion 27%
38 Note: RFG dinners are refrigerated ham-based prepared dinners (e.g. maple brown sugar ham entrees)
Halves 51%
Note: Within Entrée hams, whole hams have lost share (-2 share points versus last year) to more convenient halves, portions and quarters
Most ham segments show good growth Entrée hams sales (dollars and pounds) are up after a slight decrease in 2006 Ham steak sales continue to grow Refrigerated ham-based dinners (RFG dinners), although a small segment, are showing continued growth Two Year Trend - % Change 2006 (2006 vs. 2005)
2007 (2007 vs. 2006)
506%
$ Sales
Pounds Sold
143%
165% 123%
1%
1%
6%
1%
-2%
-1% -7%
Entrée Ham(1) Note:
Ham Steaks
RFG Dinners(2)
-1%
-3%
-6%
All Other(3)
(1)
Entrée Ham(1)
Ham Steaks
RFG Dinners(2)
Entrée Ham = whole hams, portions, halves and quarters RFG Dinners = refrigerated ham-based prepared dinners- exceptionally strong growth due to very low base (3) All Other = cubes, ends and pieces, fat and bones, hocks, skins, etc. (2)
39
2% 7%
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007
All Other(3)
Within entrée hams, spiral cuts show continued strength While spiral cuts have experienced strong growth over the past several years, non-spiral hams still represent largest share of sales Calendar Year 2007
Share of $ Sales
Spiral 35%
Two Year Trend - % $ Sales Change
NonSpiral Hams 65%
11% 6%
Share of Pounds Sold
Spiral 31%
5%
-1%
NonSpiral Hams 69%
-5% Spiral 2006 vs. 2005
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007. Note: This represents share of spiral cuts WITHIN entrée hams.
40
-6%
Non-Spiral 2007 vs. 2006
2 year growth
Bone-in hams represent largest share of volume… …yet boneless hams are more profitable
Calendar Year 2007 Sem i-BL 6%
Share of $ Sales
Boneless 27%
Bone-in 67%
Boneless “profit per pound” Advantage
106%
Sem i-BL 9%
Share of Pounds Sold
Boneless 20%
Bone-in 71%
Vs. Bone-In
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007
41
Source:NPB Composite Database
Ham sales are strongest during the holiday months Index of Ham $ Sales vs. Average Month in 2007 327
208 174
Average Month Index = 100
67
Jan
66
Feb
77
Mar
Apr (Easter)
45
45
46
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
54
58
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec (Thanksgiving) (Christmas) Note: An index over 100 means the month is out performing vs. the average month. An index below 100 means the month is under-performing. For example: January ham sales are 33% less than the average month and April sales are 108% more than the average month.
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007
42
47
Ham feature activity mirrors key sales periods Index of # of Ham Features vs. Average Month in 2007 330
244
175 Average Month Index = 100
52
Jan
70
Feb
87
Mar
Apr
42
46
50
May
Jun
Jul
61
64
Sep
Oct
32
Aug
Easter
Source: Leemis Promo Data ad activity analysis across 169 Grocery Accounts/Market combinations; calendar year 2007
43
Nov Thanksgiving
Dec Christmas
Holiday sales are driven by entrée hams* Index of Entrée Ham $ Sales vs. Average Month in 2007 376
234 189
Average Month Index = 100
61
Jan
56
Feb
72
Mar
Apr
38
34
34
34
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
*Entrée Hams = wholes, quarters, portions and halves Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007
44
42
46
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
However, seasonality has less impact on ham steaks… …making them a great year-round meal option Index of Ham Steaks $ Sales vs. Average Month in 2007
Average Month Index = 100
108
96
89
Jan
110
106 98
100
Jun
Jul
Aug
99
101
Nov
Dec
88
Feb
Mar
Apr
Source: Fresh Look syndicated data; calendar year 2007
45
96
111
May
Sep
Oct
Away-from-home ham consumption
Trends in Operators Menuing Ham Overall, Category Incidence Rising
# Ham Items/Operator Menuing
(Category Incidence is % Operators Menuing):
▲Chains: Casual, Fast Casual, QSR
▲ Chains: Casual, Fast Casual, QSR Indep: Cut Edge
▼Family Dining Chains, Cut Edge
▼ Family Dining Chains
Category Incidence Ham, All Menu Parts Market Sectors Casual Chains Fast Casual Chains Family Dining Chains QSR Chains Cutting Edge Independents Casual Independents Midscale Independents QSR Independents Non Commercial ** No earlier data available 47 MenuMine, Foodservice Research Institute
Ham Items/Operator
2007
2004
2001
2007
2004
2001
% 44 53 73 49 43 50 58 43 74
% 42 53 74 48 39 50 60 na** 74
% 37 47 71 40 34 na** na** na** na**
# 2.3 4.6 7.5 5.2 1.9 2.7 6.5 5.5 3.2
# 2.1 4.0 7.9 4.6 1.9 2.6 6.4 na** 3.6
# 2.2 3.2 7.8 4.8 2.0 na** na** na** na**
Ham menuing is increasing 19% of pork menu mentions are ham Ham menu mentions increased 21% from 2000 to 2005
Source: The NPD Group, Inc. CREST 2005
48
Ham entrees served most at breakfast meal Distribution of Ham Entrée Servings YE Dec 2007 PM Snack 2% +% PCYA* Supper 18% -5% PCYA
Morning Meal Lunch Supper PM Snack Lunch 17% 15% PCYA
Morning Meal 63%
9% PCYA
49 Source: The NPD Group / CREST
*Low Sample = Cannot Trend
Ham sandwiches served most at lunch meal Distribution of Ham Sandwich Servings YE Dec 2007 Morning Meal PM Snack 7% 7%+% PCYA*
+% PCYA*
Morning Meal Lunch Supper PM Snack
Supper 26% -5% PCYA
Lunch 60%
0% PCYA
50 Source: The NPD Group / CREST
*Low Sample = Cannot Trend
Ham entrée served equally at chains and independents Distribution of Ham Entree Servings YE Dec 2007
Major Chains 42%
Independents 46%
17% PCYA
1% PCYA
51 Source: The NPD Group / CREST
Major Chains Small Chains Independents
Small Chains 12% 4% PCYA
Half of ham sandwiches served at chains
Independents 30% -5% PCYA
Major Chains 53% 5% PCYA
Major Chains Small Chains Independents Small Chains 17% 7% PCYA Source: The NPD Group, Inc. CREST 2005
52
.
Ham - Product Profiles Demographic and Regional Indices* - Yr. Ending Nov. '07 Demographics Dist.
Census Regions Index Yr Ago
Dist.
Index Yr Ago
Index
East Central
16% 25%
87 117
87 112
South West
37% 22%
99 94
102 95
Index
Gender Male Female
57% 43%
119 82
117 84
Age of Eater <18
13%
18-24 25-34
7% 14%
47 76
53 72
35-49
24%
98 114
102 107
50-64 65+
25% 17%
141 146
144 141
Under $25,000 $25-$44,999
18% 20%
85 95
88 97
$45-$59,999 $60-$74,999
13% 12%
111 104
96 104
$75-$99,999
15%
105
113
$100,000 and more
22%
109
106
HH Income
*Indexed to Panel. Index of 100=Average Usage
Source: The NPD Group/NPD Foodservice®/CREST®. For the exclusive use of CREST subscribers.
53
.
Ham Sandwich - Product Profiles Demographic and Regional Indices* - Yr. Ending Nov. '07 Demographics Dist.
Census Regions Index Yr Ago
Dist.
Index Yr Ago
Index
East Central
19% 26%
100 114
104 119
South West
35% 19%
103 81
98 82
Index
Gender Male Female
51% 49%
106 94
105 95
Age of Eater <18
19%
18-24 25-34
10% 18%
83 138
78 107
35-49
25%
121 107
130 110
50-64 65+
19% 9%
103 63
110 75
Under $25,000 $25-$44,999
19% 19%
80 96
94 94
$45-$59,999 $60-$74,999
12% 12%
95 104
93 101
$75-$99,999
16%
111
120
$100,000 and more
22%
120
103
HH Income
*Indexed to Panel. Index of 100=Average Usage
Source: The NPD Group/NPD Foodservice®/CREST®. For the exclusive use of CREST subscribers.
54
