Reading Notes - The Dhandho Investor Dhandho framework: • Invest in existing businesses. (Rate of change of industry is very slow) • Invest in simple ...
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Reading Notes - The Dhandho Investor
Dhandho framework: • Invest in existing businesses. (Rate of change of industry is very slow) • Invest in simple businesses. • Invest in distressed businesses in distressed industries. • Invest in businesses with durable moats. -
We are best off never calculating a discounted cash flow stream for longer than 10 years or expecting a sale in year 10 to be at anything greater than 15 times cash flows at that time (plus any excess capital in the business).
• Few bets, big bets, and infrequent bets. -
I adjust for this by simply placing bets at 10 percent of assets for each bet.
• Fixate on arbitrage. -
The critical question is: How long is the spread likely to last and how wide is the moat?
• Margin of safety—always. -
The Mr. Market analogy.
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A stock is a piece of a business
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Margin of Safety. Make sure that you are buying a business for way less than you think it is conservatively worth
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Dhandho journeys have always been all about the minimization of risk.
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Whenever I make investments, I assume that the gap is highly likely to close in three years or less. My own experience as a professional investor over the past seven years has been that the vast majority of gaps close in under 18 months.
• Invest in low-risk, high-uncertainty businesses. -
Heads, I win; tails, I don’t lose much!
• Invest in the copycats rather than the innovators -
Innovation is a crapshoot, but investing in businesses that are simply good copycats and adopting innovations created elsewhere rules the world.
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In seeking to make investments in the public equity markets, ignore the innovators. Always seek out businesses run by people who have demonstrated their ability to repeatedly lift and scale. It is the Dhandho way.
To Enter or Not to Enter:
1. Is it a business I understand very well—squarely within my circle of competence? 2. Do I know the intrinsic value of the business today and, with a high degree of confidence, how it is likely to change over the next few years? 3. Is the business priced at a large discount to its intrinsic value today and in two to three years? Over 50 percent? 4. Would I be willing to invest a large part of my net worth into this business? 5. Is the downside minimal? 6. Does the business have a moat? 7. Is it run by able and honest managers?
Selling a stock:
Any stock that you buy cannot be sold at a loss within two to three years of buying it unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that current intrinsic value is less than the current price the market is offering
As a corollary, the only time a stock can be sold at a loss within two to three years of buying it is when both of the following conditions are satisfied: 1. We are able to estimate its present and future intrinsic value, two to three years out, with a very high degree of certainty. 2. The price offered is higher than present or future estimated intrinsic value.
Don’t hesitate to take a realized loss once three years have passed.
Within three years of buying, there is likely to be convergence between intrinsic value and price—leading to a handsome annualized return. Anytime this gap narrows to under 10 percent, feel free to sell the position and exit. You must sell once the market price exceeds intrinsic value.
