Transitions: A Roadmap to Low-Power Memory Kevin K. Yee Oct 15, 2014 MemCon 2014
A Look at History
Last three decades – PC driven
Memory Density
2013 gaming laptop 32 GB
2000 gaming computer 4 GB memory
1990 office standard 640 kB memory
1981 IBM PC 16 kB base memory
1980 2
1990
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2000
2010
What drives the market now…next? The next 3 decades - ?
Memory Use by Market Segment 13%
13%
13% 32% 31%
52%
2009 Source: ISH (iSuppli) for 2013
3
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43%
2015
A Look at the Present…Future
New Applications, new systems…new challenges
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Shifting Memory Requirements Mobile changes the priority
Mobile Consumer Networking PC/Server
Bandwidth
Power
Cost
Capacity
♦♦ ♦ ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦
♦♦♦ ♦♦ ♦ ♦
♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ ♦♦
♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦♦♦
Mobile shifts focus from DDR to LPDDR! * Cadence assessments 5
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Mobile and Low Power DDR LPDDR3 vs. LPDDR4 • LPDDR4 is more power efficient than LPDDR3 for certain tasks • For Mobile applications, this is everything
Active
Power
LPDDR3 Standby
Time Power
Active Standby
LPDDR4
Time 6
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Proof in Point
Today’s Smartphones
Performance
Xaiomi Mi4 16G Apple iPhone 6 128G Apple iPhone 5 32G
Samsung Galaxy S5 32G
2013 7
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2014
2015
The DDR Memory Roadmap
Does JEDEC drive transitions? • Not really • JEDEC drives memory specifications • Memory is a high volume manufacturing business – Driver1: Price – low cost and volume – Driver 2: Need – power or performance
• What is the inflection point? – Price vs. need – Chicken & Egg – low price first or volume demand first (cost)
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The DDR Memory Roadmap Memory Specifications HBM HMC Wide IO 2 Wide IO GDDR5 LPDDR4
GDDR4
GDDR3
LPDDR3 LPDDR2
GDDR2 LPDDR
DDR4 DDR3 DDR2 DDR SDRAM
1993
10
2000
2002
2004
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2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
What drives Memory Adoption? Breaking the Cycle • Technology or Price? – – – –
New technology hard to adopt High initial price limits adoption or transition Low initial volume keeps prices high The vicious cycle
• Breaking the cycle – Mobile could be the thing that breaks the cycle – Need is great and the volumes high (quickly) – This means that prices can drop quickly leading to faster adoption – Economy of Scales
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What drives Memory Adoption? Need vs. Cost Multi-core Processing Power (1.5 GHz+)
New Content Consumption User Experience
Larger Display (HD UHD)
Hi-speed Wireless (4G LTE, WiFi
• End Product Needs – Larger and higher resolution displays and cameras – Bigger and faster applications – Bragging rights
• Memory costs – Memory is traditionally driven by cost – If the need is not there it is all about costs – The lower the cost, the faster the adoption 12
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What drives the mobile need? Beyond Power: Density • Screens are getting larger • Smartphones going from 4 inch to 4.7 inch to 5.5 inch • Tablets going from 7 inch to 8.0 inch to 10 inch Flagship Smartphone Memory Density
2Gb LPDDRx
4Gb LPDDRx
6~8Gb LPDDRx
13
Year
Memory Density
Memory Type
2009
256MB
LPDDR
2010
512MB
LPDDR
2011
1GB
LPDDR2
2012
2GB
LPDDR2
2013
2GB
LPDDR3
2014
3GB
LPDDR3
2015
4GB ?
LPDDR3/4 ?
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More Bandwidth in Mobile Higher resolution and screen size Resolution is getting higher From 1280x720 to 3840x2160 and beyond > size and resolution = > Memory Screen size progression for smartphone and tablets 10
9
Tablets
9
Inches
8 7 5.7
6 5
4.5
Smartphones
3.4
4 3 2
2.3 1
1 0 HD 1280x720
14
FHD 1920x1280
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QXGA 2048x1536
1
WQXGA 2560x16006
QSXGA 2560x2048
UHD 3840x2160
More Performance in Mobile From 400 to over 3200
Memory Speed in Mbps
4500
4266
4000 3500
3200
3000
PC-DDR4 Bandwidth
2500 2000
LPDDR4
1600
1500
1066
1066
LPDDR3
800
1000 500
2133
400
400
LPDDR2
0 2007
15
2008
2009
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2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Case Study: Apple iPhone and iPad Volume and ramp rates iPhone Unit Sales 60000
47789
50000
37044 35064
40000
26028 26910
30000 20000 10000
8700 8752 8398
14102
20338 16235 18647 17073
0 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q2
Q3
iPad Unit Sales
Q4
2013
Data from Macworld
60000
22860
50000 40000
30000 20000 10000
3270
4188
Q3
Q4
7331
4694
9246
11123
15434
17042 11798
14036
0 16
2011
Q2
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Q3
Q4 Source: Macworld
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
Case Study: Apple iPhone Apple iPhone volume and ramp rates!
A Game Changer: 5 Million phones in a weekend
20 Million phones in a month
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Source: Macworld
LPDDR transitions in Apple iPhone Models iPhone Memory Size/Type 1500
?
1250 1 GB LPDDR2
1 GB LPDDR3
1000
750 512MB LPDDR2
500
250
128MB LPDDR
256MB LPDDR
0 iPhone 2007
iPhone 3GS 2009 Source: Wikipedia, 10/2014 18
iPhone 3G 2008
iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5C iPhone 5S iPhone 6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014
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2015
Case Study: Xiaomi Smartphone Record Shipment in 2014
Source: Xiaomi web site, 10/2014 19
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WW smartphone shipments 2009~2018 1800 1600
Units in Millions
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mobile Volumes will impact the Low-Power Memory Transition ! Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014
20
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2017
Smartphone shipments in China 2011~2013 100 95
90
91 87
80 78 70 70 60
62
50 45
40 36 30
33 26
20 17 10
15
0 Q1, 11
Q2,11
Q3, 11
Q4, 11
Q1, 12
Q2, 12
Q3, 12
Units in Millions Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014
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Q4, 12
Q1, 13
Q2, 13
Q3, 13
Q4, 13
LPDDR Exceed DDR in Performance Mobile moves into PC space
LPDDR Performance is converging! 22
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LPDDR & DDR Price converging Little to No Premium for Low Power 4Gb Equivalent prices of DRAM Alternatives
1Q 2012 Pricing − 4Gb LPDDR -> − 4Gb DDR3L -> − LP Premium =
$6.80 $4.20 62%
$7 LPDDR3 x32
$6 LPDDR2 x32
Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast − 4Gb LPDDR2 -> − 4Gb DDR3L -> − LP Premium =
Convergence
DDR3L-RS x32
$4.75 $3.60 32%
$5
DDR3L-RS x16
$4
DDR3L x16
Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast − 4Gb LPDDR3 -> − 4Gb DDR3L -> − LP Premium =
$6.40 $3.60 78%
$3
$2
$1 Q1
Q2
Q3
2012
23
© 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: JEDEC Mobile Forum 2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Mobile Market Transition Low Power High B/W Memory 120
100
WideIO2 LPDDR3
LPDDR2
80
LPDDR4
60
40
20
0 2010
2011 LPDDR
2012 LPDDR2
2013 LPDDR3
2014 LPDDR4
2015
2016
Wide IO
LPDDR Roadmap Transition is happening! 24
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The Low-Power Memory Roadmap Transition Summary • Factors Driving Transition
LPDDR4
– Lower power – Greater bandwidth – Higher volume/lower cost
• Transition is happening NOW!
LPDDR3
– From DDR to LPDDR – From LPDDR3 to LPDDR4
LPDDR2
DDR
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