Romania Market Daily
Fixed Income & FX Market
Capital Market BRD
NBR %
O/N 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M
ROBOR EURIBOR LIBOR 10.59 0.32 0.18 10.74 0.36 0.22 10.93 0.43 0.24 10.78 0.72 0.28 10.43 1.00 0.56 10.39 1.24 1.18
EUR USD GBP CHF HUF PLN SEK
4-Nov 4.3017 2.9376 4.7916 2.8449 1.5403 0.9980 0.4091
Buy 4.2350 2.8660 4.7130 2.7960 1.4720 0.9810 0.4030
Sell 4.3650 2.9710 4.8730 2.8940 1.6140 1.0320 0.4175
BRD (EUR)
MarCap
Buy Sell 1.0000 1.0000 1.4401 1.5071 0.8568 0.9376 1.4814 1.5418 262.6700 290.3100 4.0575 4.4846 10.2120 10.7356
BSE RASDAQ
BRD deposit rates O/N 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M
RON 2.00% 8.00% 9.00% 9.25% 9.00% 9.00%
EUR 0.20% 1.50% 3.00% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%
USD 0.10% 0.50% 1.70% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00%
3.3
EURRON
3.1
USDRON
9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90
Turnover RON,mn
EUR,mn 75,176.13 17,475.91 12,369.85 2,875.57
Last 4,384.96 2,579.26 20,069.72 418.08 572.92 9,234.35
%Day -1.86% -2.33% -2.90% -2.35% -2.02% -1.55%
BSE RASDAQ BONDS
y-t-d 51.15% 30.46% 59.92% 50.74% 64.43% 40.12%
4.1
3.9 2.9
3.8 3.7 29-Oct
30-Oct
2-Nov
3-Nov
EUR,mn
18.97 0.64 0.011
4.41 0.15 0.003
27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000
4,600 4,350 4,100 3,850 3,600 3,350 3,100 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 2-Nov BET
4.2
4.0
3
28-Oct
RO0809CTN0M4 RO0909CTN0M3 RO0809CTN0R3 RO0910CTN0O6 RO0910CTN0Q1 RO0910CTN0W9 RO0910CTN0Z2 RO0910CTN116 RO0910CTN0J6 RO0910CTN0N8 RO0910CTN0U3
BSE Indices BET BET-C BET-FI BET-XT BET-NG ROTX
RON,mn
4.3 3.2
2.8
BRD Bonds Offer Ask Yield(%) ISIN Code
11/4/2009
3-Nov
BET-FI
Top 5 BSE Most Traded Ticker SIF2 SIF5 SNP SIF3 BRD
Last
World Indices
Last
0.9000 1.0200 0.2500 0.5850 12.4000
%Day -3.23% -2.86% -2.72% -4.88% -1.59%
Turnover (RON,mn) 2.686 2.578 2.419 2.106 1.708
%Tot Turnover 14.88% 14.28% 13.40% 11.66% 9.46%
Romanian Benchmark Fixings ISIN Code RO0910CTN132 RO0910CTN108 RO0912DBN076 RO0914DBN049 RO0717DBN038 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Security 6M T-BILL 1Y T-BILL 3Y T-BOND 5Y T-BOND 10Y T-BOND 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ask Maturity Yield(%) Date 8.30 9.77 9.84 9.87 8.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14Apr10 22Sep10 25Oct12 05Mar14 11Jun17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
WIG PX BUX CAC 40 DJIA S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX Nikkei 25 DJ Euro Stoxx 50
37,391.24 1,112.00 19,676.52 3,584.25 9,771.91 1,045.41 5,037.21 5,353.35 9,844.31 2,712.30
%Day -2.35% -1.63% -3.01% -1.52% -0.18% 0.24% -1.32% -1.43% 0.42% -1.83%
y-t-d 37.32% 29.57% 60.73% 11.38% 11.34% 15.74% 13.60% 11.29% 11.12% 10.81%
Commodities Gold($/troy ounce) Silver($/troy ounce) Platinum($/troy ounce) Palladium($/troy ounce) Dated Brent WTI Cushing Prim Alum(LME 3M /USD/ Copper(LME 3M /USD/t) Lead(LME 3M /USD/t) Zinc(LME 3M /USD/t)
Last 1,083.80 17.23 1,355.50 329.00 77.52 79.60 1,908.00 6,460.00 2,270.00 2,180.00
Comment
Comment
Sell-off pressures seem to have eased in the region. The EURRON might fall temporarily below 4.30 today. We expect short-term interest rates to remain in the proximity of 10%.
Stocks in Romania closed again on negative territory as BET fell 1.86% and BET-FI 2.90%. The total market turnover amounted to EUR 4.56mn, out of which trades with SIFs represented 45% of total. SIF Moldova was the most traded stock with RON 2.68mn.
Key Stories
Expected Impact
Transelectrica - 3Q'09 results
Neutral
NBR keeps rates unchanged
Neutral / Positive
Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.
11/4/2009
Romania Market Daily
Detailed Corporate Stories
Transelectrica - 3Q'09 results Name
Transelectrica
BSE Ticker
TEL
Bloomberg Code
TEL RO
Sector
Utilities
Last Closing
11.8000
Recommendation
Hold
EPS'08 (RON) 0.5367
P/E'08
Latest EPS(RON)
21.99
-0.9171
11.55
TP Latest P/E
na
Transelectrica posted its 3Q’09 results according to RAS. The figures are showing a decrease of 10.6% y-o-y for the company’s turnover and an erosion of the company’s profitability from RON 132.9mn in 1-3Q’08 to RON 11.5mn in 1-3Q’09 (-91.4% y-o-y). The continued decrease in energy consumption has contributed to the negative evolution of revenues. However, we do not have yet a detailed picture of the company’s business segments for this period, so we cannot asses in detail the evolution of the company’s figures Looking at the quarterly evolution of the company’s financials, we see that turnover has decreased by 17.3% yoy, while earnings plunged by 85.8% compared to the same period in 2008. The negative evolution encountered in 1H’09 continues in 3Q’09, but earnings have fallen by a lower pace than in the second quarter. Nevertheless, considering the marking-to-market of the FX loan balance to be performed at the end of 2009 as per RAS standards, we maintain our estimates of a negative result for 2009. Please find below the common size statements for the first three quarters of 2009 and the last quarter:
RON th, ytd
y-o-y
3Q'08
Turnover Other revenues Total op revenues
2,010,788 20,003 2,030,791
99.0% 1.0% 100.0%
1,792,123 23,522 1,815,645
98.7% 1.3% 100.0%
-10.9% 17.6% -10.6%
661,283 4,896 665,108
99.4% 0.7% 100.0%
546,554 9,230 555,784
98.3% 1.7% 100.0%
-17.3% 88.5% -16.4%
Materials Cost of goods Energy Personnel expenses Amortisation Third parties expenses Taxes Other expenses Provisions Total op expenses EBIT EBITDA
1,371,631 1,280 11,265 97,340 179,461 177,157 10,993 8,079 (3,572) 1,853,634 177,157 356,618
67.5% 0.1% 0.6% 4.8% 8.8% 8.7% 0.5% 0.4% -0.2% 91.3% 8.7% 17.6%
1,297,078 1,161 10,821 104,752 186,424 162,897 7,692 12,215 (7,967) 1,775,073 40,572 226,996
71.4% 0.1% 0.6% 5.8% 10.3% 9.0% 0.4% 0.7% -0.4% 97.8% 2.2% 12.5%
-5.4% -9.3% -3.9% 7.6% 3.9% -8.0% -30.0% 51.2% na -4.2% -77.1% -36.3%
465,333 183 4,226 35,315 59,150 64,112 4,677 3,299 (66) 636,229 28,879 88,029
70.0% 0.0% 0.6% 5.3% 8.9% 9.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 95.7% 4.3% 13.2%
393,662 453 3,335 34,456 62,433 56,071 (1,067) 2,625 551,968 3,816 66,249
70.8% 0.1% 0.6% 6.2% 11.2% 10.1% -0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 11.9%
-15.4% 147.5% -21.1% -2.4% 5.6% -12.5% na -20.4% na -13.2% -86.8% -24.7%
(8,802) 168,355 35,440 132,915
-0.4% 8.3% 1.7% 6.5%
(16,216) 20,382 8,924 11,458
na 1.1% 0.5% 0.6%
84.2% -87.9% -74.8% -91.4%
(5,522) 23,357 5,998 17,359
-0.8% 3.5% 0.9% 2.6%
(2,596) 94 (2,378) 2,472
-0.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0.4%
na -99.6% na -85.8%
Financial result EBT Corporate tax EAT
1-3Q'08
1-3Q'09
Source: Transelectrica RAS financial statements, BRD GSG
Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.
3Q'09
y-o-y
Romania Market Daily
11/4/2009
Detailed Macroeconomic News NBR keeps rates unchanged NBR Board decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8% and the existing levels of reserve requirements for local banks. The decision was expected as any rate cut would have had no impact in the current context with interbank interest rates around 10.5% and pressures on the RON. However, this decision does not imply at all that the monetary easing cycle has ended. NBR will make efforts to re-attach interest rates to its key rate via open market operations and only then it will resume the easing process. We expect this decision to be slightly positive for the leu.
Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.
11/4/2009
Romania Market Daily
Events for week 02 Nov - 06 Nov Macroeconomic Data Indicator
Reference Period
Announcement Date
Previous Value
FX Reserves
Oct
02-Nov
28.30
Ind. Prices
Sep
03-Nov
-1.10%
03-Nov
8;15;30
Key rate / MRR Salaries
Sep
04-Nov
5.6%
Construction works
Sep
06-Nov
-24.9%
New Value
Obs
28.40 EUR bln -1.2% yoy 8;15;30 yoy, nominal yoy
BSE Events Type of event
Company Name
Ticker
FLAMINGO
FLA
Suspends trading: Ordinary SGM
4-Nov-09
SIF MOLDOVA
SIF2
Financial results Q3'09
3-Nov-09
TRANSELECTRICA
TEL
Financial results Q3'09
4-Nov-09
ROMPETROL RAFINARE
RRC
Financial results Q3'09
5-Nov-09
SIF TRANSILVANIA
SIF3
Financial results Q3'09
6-Nov-09
TRANSILVANIA CONSTRUCTII
COTR
Financial results Q3'09
6-Nov-09
Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.
Date of event
11/4/2009
Romania Market Daily
BSE market BSE Ticker
Bloomberg CODE
Sector
BRD-GSG
BRD
BRD RO
Banking
Banca Transilvania
TLV
TLV RO
Banca Comerciala Carpatica
BCC
BCC RO
Petrom
SNP
RompetrolRafinare Transelectrica
Company
Closing (RON)
Mcap (mn)
Turnover (mn)
Price Performance (%)
EPS
BVPS
Gross DPS
P/E
P/Bv
DivYield
RON
EUR
RON
EUR
1Day
1M
y-t-d
y-o-y
2008
Latest*
2008
Latest*
2008
2008
Latest
2008
Latest
2008
12.4000
8641.579
2008.875
1.708
0.397
-1.59
7.83
50.30
54.04
1.9421
1.8137
6.3092
6.1912
0.7283
6.38
6.84
1.97
2.00
20.27
Banking
1.7900
1896.856
440.955
1.318
0.306
-1.10
14.74
-31.68
-31.68
0.3745
0.2798
1.6173
1.5690
0.0471
4.78
6.40
1.11
1.14
45.24
Banking
0.1000
201.255
46.785
0.049
0.011
-0.99
-5.66
-44.87
-53.31
0.0004
0.0028
0.1182
0.1224
0.0000
250.97
35.16
0.85
0.82
na
SNP RO
Oil&gas
0.2500
14161.027
3291.961
2.419
0.562
-2.72
1.63
38.12
25.00
0.0180
0.0050
0.2395
0.2455
0.0000
13.85
50.30
1.04
1.02
na
RRC
RRC RO
Oil&gas
0.0623
1314.485
305.573
0.154
0.036
-1.89
16.23
236.76
125.72
-0.0220
-0.0347
0.0741
0.0617
0.0000
na
na
0.84
1.01
na
TEL
TEL RO
Utilities
11.8000
864.977
201.078
0.060
0.014
0.00
-5.60
7.27
-16.90
0.5367
-0.9171
31.8317
32.1213
0.3000
21.99
na
0.37
0.37
46.83
Transgaz
TGN
TGN RO
Utilities
145.0000
1707.207
396.868
0.202
0.047
-2.03
-3.97
18.85
5.00
20.2645
22.5163 186.7792
189.8147
10.4700
7.16
6.44
0.78
0.76
16.49
Impact
IMP
IMP RO
Real-estate
0.5000
100.000
23.247
0.362
0.084
-5.66
-6.54
59.24
102.43
0.0411
-0.0191
1.6679
1.6754
0.0000
12.16
na
0.30
0.30
na
Flamingo
FLA
FLA RO
IT&C retail and distribution
0.0290
22.592
5.252
0.016
0.004
-2.36
-8.23
-3.33
-53.15
-0.0525
-0.0799
na
0.2077
0.0000
na
na
na
0.14
na
Alro
ALR
ALR RO
Aluminium producer
2.3400
1670.243
388.275
0.071
0.016
-5.65
-4.49
85.71
-28.88
0.3420
0.0847
1.9988
1.9488
0.2877
6.84
27.62
1.17
1.20
9.68
SIF Banat Crisana
SIF1
SIF1 RO
Financials
0.9850
540.617
125.675
1.055
0.245
-1.50
-10.45
80.73
71.30
0.1739
0.2416
0.9417
0.8796
0.0300
5.66
4.08
1.05
1.12
39.09
SIF Moldova
SIF2
SIF2 RO
Financials
0.9000
467.181
108.604
2.686
0.624
-3.23
-13.46
69.81
57.89
0.1810
0.2172
0.8884
0.7710
0.0450
4.97
4.14
1.01
1.17
23.81
SIF Transilvania
SIF3
SIF3 RO
Financials
0.5850
638.904
148.524
2.106
0.490
-4.88
-13.33
115.07
91.80
0.0867
0.1182
0.5463
0.5922
0.0300
6.75
4.95
1.07
0.99
23.21
SIF Muntenia
SIF4
SIF4 RO
Financials
0.6250
504.398
117.255
0.599
0.139
-1.57
-13.19
0.00
10.62
0.1110
0.1232
1.5688
1.3843
0.0400
5.63
5.07
0.40
0.45
18.60
SIF Oltenia
SIF5
SIF5 RO
Financials
1.0200
591.769
137.566
2.578
0.599
-2.86
-10.53
74.36
50.00
0.1511
0.3726
1.0741
1.0212
0.0600
6.75
2.74
0.95
1.00
20.24
Dafora
DAFR
DAFR RO
Drilling and civil engineering
0.1040
101.252
23.538
nt
nt
0.00
2.97
165.98
79.31
0.0028
-0.0010
0.1751
0.1756
0.0000
37.00
na
0.59
0.59
na
Condmag
COMI
COMI RO
Construction of gas, oil, crude oil pipelines
0.5650
97.630
22.696
0.187
0.043
-3.42
-2.59
139.41
101.07
0.0514
0.0794
0.4526
0.4890
0.0000
10.98
7.11
1.25
1.16
na
Rompetrol Well Services
PTR
PTR RO
Well services for oil&gas companies
0.4170
116.006
26.967
0.018
0.004
-0.71
18.80
39.00
80.52
0.0869
0.0692
0.3685
0.3733
0.0240
4.80
6.03
1.13
1.12
20.68
Rasdaq market Company
Albalact Prospectiuni
BSE Ticker
Bloomberg CODE
Sector
ALBZ
ALBZ RO
Diary producer
PRSN RO
Geological and Geophysical services
PRSN
Closing (RON)
Mcap (mn)
Turnover (mn)
Price Performance (%)
EPS
BVPS
Gross DPS
P/E
P/Bv
DivYield
RON
EUR
RON
EUR
1Day
1M
y-t-d
y-o-y
2008
Latest*
2008
Latest*
2008
2008
Latest
2008
Latest
2008
0.3500
228.448
53.106
0.105
0.024
-3.85
-1.96
66.67
100.00
0.0009
0.0038
0.1310
0.1332
nav
376.62
93.15
2.67
2.63
na
0.2050
147.200
34.219
0.068
0.016
-3.30
-8.48
75.21
43.36
0.0042
0.0326
0.2511
0.2817
nav
48.83
6.28
0.82
0.73
na
Imotrust
ARCV
ARCV RO
Real-estate
0.0940
29.030
6.748
0.017
0.004
-5.05
-7.84
106.59
9.05
0.0018
0.0018
0.4966
0.4966
nav
51.74
51.74
0.19
0.19
na
Iproeb
IPRU
IPRU RO
Wire producer
1.2800
60.892
14.155
0.039
0.009
-7.25
-7.25
42.22
-24.71
0.2579
0.0987
1.3684
1.2819
0.1260
4.96
12.97
0.94
1.00
12.09
Armax Gaz
ARAX
ARAX RO
Equipment producer related to oil&gas industry
0.0880
53.184
12.363
0.109
0.025
-1.79
-7.76
57.14
18.92
0.0051
0.0035
0.1243
0.1290
nav
17.17
24.82
0.71
0.68
na
Prefab
PREH
PREH RO
Construction materials producer
1.8400
89.301
20.760
0.002
0.001
2.22
-11.11
135.90
30.50
0.0986
0.0996
4.3540
4.2751
0.0923
18.67
18.48
0.42
0.43
23.73
Argus
UARG
ARTE RO
Crude oil and fats
1.2600
45.118
10.488
0.010
0.002
0.00
0.80
-30.00
-37.00
0.6399
0.4828
2.4527
2.4561
0.0700
1.97
2.61
0.51
0.51
21.43
Ceramica Iasi
CERE
CERE RO
Construction materials producer
0.8500
97.112
22.575
nt
nt
0.00
-4.49
-15.00
-22.73
0.0737
0.0572
0.8550
0.8550
nav
11.53
14.85
0.99
0.99
na
Conpet Ploiesti
COTE
COTE RO
Transport services via pipelines
30.0000
259.726
60.377
nt
nt
0.00
-0.33
17.65
35.75
7.7385
5.8190
55.7351
54.5392
4.0982
3.88
5.16
0.54
0.55
8.71
Comnord
COSC
COSC RO
Civil and industrial construction
1.1600
46.412
10.789
0.004
0.001
-1.69
-15.94
-20.55
-62.34
0.3531
0.1183
2.2479
2.2605
0.0000
3.29
9.80
0.52
0.51
na
ELMA RO
Instruments and appliances for measuring
0.4100
138.588
32.217
0.012
0.003
-1.20
-1.44
17.14
-16.84
0.0561
0.0561
0.6994
0.7380
0.0000
7.31
7.31
0.59
0.56
na
Electromagnetica
ELMA
* Based on H1'09 RAS financial results or latest financial results available
Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.
Romania Market Daily
BRD-GSG - Research Reports
Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.
11/4/2009
11/4/2009
Romania Market Daily
BRD-GSG - Research
+40 21 301 6850
[email protected]
Florian LIBOCOR
Chief Economist / Head of Research
+40 21 301 6869
[email protected]
Angeliu URSACHE Carmen LIPARĂ Florin HANŢILĂ,CFA Dana MUNTEANU
Senior Economist Senior Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst
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