Romania Market Daily - extra.brd.ro

Romania Market Daily 11/4/2009 NBR MarCap RON,mn EUR,mn Turnover RON,mn EUR,mn % ROBOR EURIBOR LIBOR 4-Nov Buy Sell Buy Sell BSE 75,176.13 17,475.91 1...

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Romania Market Daily

Fixed Income & FX Market

Capital Market BRD

NBR %

O/N 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M

ROBOR EURIBOR LIBOR 10.59 0.32 0.18 10.74 0.36 0.22 10.93 0.43 0.24 10.78 0.72 0.28 10.43 1.00 0.56 10.39 1.24 1.18

EUR USD GBP CHF HUF PLN SEK

4-Nov 4.3017 2.9376 4.7916 2.8449 1.5403 0.9980 0.4091

Buy 4.2350 2.8660 4.7130 2.7960 1.4720 0.9810 0.4030

Sell 4.3650 2.9710 4.8730 2.8940 1.6140 1.0320 0.4175

BRD (EUR)

MarCap

Buy Sell 1.0000 1.0000 1.4401 1.5071 0.8568 0.9376 1.4814 1.5418 262.6700 290.3100 4.0575 4.4846 10.2120 10.7356

BSE RASDAQ

BRD deposit rates O/N 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M

RON 2.00% 8.00% 9.00% 9.25% 9.00% 9.00%

EUR 0.20% 1.50% 3.00% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00%

USD 0.10% 0.50% 1.70% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00%

3.3

EURRON

3.1

USDRON

9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90 9.90

Turnover RON,mn

EUR,mn 75,176.13 17,475.91 12,369.85 2,875.57

Last 4,384.96 2,579.26 20,069.72 418.08 572.92 9,234.35

%Day -1.86% -2.33% -2.90% -2.35% -2.02% -1.55%

BSE RASDAQ BONDS

y-t-d 51.15% 30.46% 59.92% 50.74% 64.43% 40.12%

4.1

3.9 2.9

3.8 3.7 29-Oct

30-Oct

2-Nov

3-Nov

EUR,mn

18.97 0.64 0.011

4.41 0.15 0.003

27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000

4,600 4,350 4,100 3,850 3,600 3,350 3,100 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 2-Nov BET

4.2

4.0

3

28-Oct

RO0809CTN0M4 RO0909CTN0M3 RO0809CTN0R3 RO0910CTN0O6 RO0910CTN0Q1 RO0910CTN0W9 RO0910CTN0Z2 RO0910CTN116 RO0910CTN0J6 RO0910CTN0N8 RO0910CTN0U3

BSE Indices BET BET-C BET-FI BET-XT BET-NG ROTX

RON,mn

4.3 3.2

2.8

BRD Bonds Offer Ask Yield(%) ISIN Code

11/4/2009

3-Nov

BET-FI

Top 5 BSE Most Traded Ticker SIF2 SIF5 SNP SIF3 BRD

Last

World Indices

Last

0.9000 1.0200 0.2500 0.5850 12.4000

%Day -3.23% -2.86% -2.72% -4.88% -1.59%

Turnover (RON,mn) 2.686 2.578 2.419 2.106 1.708

%Tot Turnover 14.88% 14.28% 13.40% 11.66% 9.46%

Romanian Benchmark Fixings ISIN Code RO0910CTN132 RO0910CTN108 RO0912DBN076 RO0914DBN049 RO0717DBN038 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Security 6M T-BILL 1Y T-BILL 3Y T-BOND 5Y T-BOND 10Y T-BOND 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Ask Maturity Yield(%) Date 8.30 9.77 9.84 9.87 8.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

14Apr10 22Sep10 25Oct12 05Mar14 11Jun17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

WIG PX BUX CAC 40 DJIA S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX Nikkei 25 DJ Euro Stoxx 50

37,391.24 1,112.00 19,676.52 3,584.25 9,771.91 1,045.41 5,037.21 5,353.35 9,844.31 2,712.30

%Day -2.35% -1.63% -3.01% -1.52% -0.18% 0.24% -1.32% -1.43% 0.42% -1.83%

y-t-d 37.32% 29.57% 60.73% 11.38% 11.34% 15.74% 13.60% 11.29% 11.12% 10.81%

Commodities Gold($/troy ounce) Silver($/troy ounce) Platinum($/troy ounce) Palladium($/troy ounce) Dated Brent WTI Cushing Prim Alum(LME 3M /USD/ Copper(LME 3M /USD/t) Lead(LME 3M /USD/t) Zinc(LME 3M /USD/t)

Last 1,083.80 17.23 1,355.50 329.00 77.52 79.60 1,908.00 6,460.00 2,270.00 2,180.00

Comment

Comment

Sell-off pressures seem to have eased in the region. The EURRON might fall temporarily below 4.30 today. We expect short-term interest rates to remain in the proximity of 10%.

Stocks in Romania closed again on negative territory as BET fell 1.86% and BET-FI 2.90%. The total market turnover amounted to EUR 4.56mn, out of which trades with SIFs represented 45% of total. SIF Moldova was the most traded stock with RON 2.68mn.

Key Stories

Expected Impact

Transelectrica - 3Q'09 results

Neutral

NBR keeps rates unchanged

Neutral / Positive

Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.

11/4/2009

Romania Market Daily

Detailed Corporate Stories

Transelectrica - 3Q'09 results Name

Transelectrica

BSE Ticker

TEL

Bloomberg Code

TEL RO

Sector

Utilities

Last Closing

11.8000

Recommendation

Hold

EPS'08 (RON) 0.5367

P/E'08

Latest EPS(RON)

21.99

-0.9171

11.55

TP Latest P/E

na

Transelectrica posted its 3Q’09 results according to RAS. The figures are showing a decrease of 10.6% y-o-y for the company’s turnover and an erosion of the company’s profitability from RON 132.9mn in 1-3Q’08 to RON 11.5mn in 1-3Q’09 (-91.4% y-o-y). The continued decrease in energy consumption has contributed to the negative evolution of revenues. However, we do not have yet a detailed picture of the company’s business segments for this period, so we cannot asses in detail the evolution of the company’s figures Looking at the quarterly evolution of the company’s financials, we see that turnover has decreased by 17.3% yoy, while earnings plunged by 85.8% compared to the same period in 2008. The negative evolution encountered in 1H’09 continues in 3Q’09, but earnings have fallen by a lower pace than in the second quarter. Nevertheless, considering the marking-to-market of the FX loan balance to be performed at the end of 2009 as per RAS standards, we maintain our estimates of a negative result for 2009. Please find below the common size statements for the first three quarters of 2009 and the last quarter:

RON th, ytd

y-o-y

3Q'08

Turnover Other revenues Total op revenues

2,010,788 20,003 2,030,791

99.0% 1.0% 100.0%

1,792,123 23,522 1,815,645

98.7% 1.3% 100.0%

-10.9% 17.6% -10.6%

661,283 4,896 665,108

99.4% 0.7% 100.0%

546,554 9,230 555,784

98.3% 1.7% 100.0%

-17.3% 88.5% -16.4%

Materials Cost of goods Energy Personnel expenses Amortisation Third parties expenses Taxes Other expenses Provisions Total op expenses EBIT EBITDA

1,371,631 1,280 11,265 97,340 179,461 177,157 10,993 8,079 (3,572) 1,853,634 177,157 356,618

67.5% 0.1% 0.6% 4.8% 8.8% 8.7% 0.5% 0.4% -0.2% 91.3% 8.7% 17.6%

1,297,078 1,161 10,821 104,752 186,424 162,897 7,692 12,215 (7,967) 1,775,073 40,572 226,996

71.4% 0.1% 0.6% 5.8% 10.3% 9.0% 0.4% 0.7% -0.4% 97.8% 2.2% 12.5%

-5.4% -9.3% -3.9% 7.6% 3.9% -8.0% -30.0% 51.2% na -4.2% -77.1% -36.3%

465,333 183 4,226 35,315 59,150 64,112 4,677 3,299 (66) 636,229 28,879 88,029

70.0% 0.0% 0.6% 5.3% 8.9% 9.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 95.7% 4.3% 13.2%

393,662 453 3,335 34,456 62,433 56,071 (1,067) 2,625 551,968 3,816 66,249

70.8% 0.1% 0.6% 6.2% 11.2% 10.1% -0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 11.9%

-15.4% 147.5% -21.1% -2.4% 5.6% -12.5% na -20.4% na -13.2% -86.8% -24.7%

(8,802) 168,355 35,440 132,915

-0.4% 8.3% 1.7% 6.5%

(16,216) 20,382 8,924 11,458

na 1.1% 0.5% 0.6%

84.2% -87.9% -74.8% -91.4%

(5,522) 23,357 5,998 17,359

-0.8% 3.5% 0.9% 2.6%

(2,596) 94 (2,378) 2,472

-0.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0.4%

na -99.6% na -85.8%

Financial result EBT Corporate tax EAT

1-3Q'08

1-3Q'09

Source: Transelectrica RAS financial statements, BRD GSG

Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.

3Q'09

y-o-y

Romania Market Daily

11/4/2009

Detailed Macroeconomic News NBR keeps rates unchanged NBR Board decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8% and the existing levels of reserve requirements for local banks. The decision was expected as any rate cut would have had no impact in the current context with interbank interest rates around 10.5% and pressures on the RON. However, this decision does not imply at all that the monetary easing cycle has ended. NBR will make efforts to re-attach interest rates to its key rate via open market operations and only then it will resume the easing process. We expect this decision to be slightly positive for the leu.

Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.

11/4/2009

Romania Market Daily

Events for week 02 Nov - 06 Nov Macroeconomic Data Indicator

Reference Period

Announcement Date

Previous Value

FX Reserves

Oct

02-Nov

28.30

Ind. Prices

Sep

03-Nov

-1.10%

03-Nov

8;15;30

Key rate / MRR Salaries

Sep

04-Nov

5.6%

Construction works

Sep

06-Nov

-24.9%

New Value

Obs

28.40 EUR bln -1.2% yoy 8;15;30 yoy, nominal yoy

BSE Events Type of event

Company Name

Ticker

FLAMINGO

FLA

Suspends trading: Ordinary SGM

4-Nov-09

SIF MOLDOVA

SIF2

Financial results Q3'09

3-Nov-09

TRANSELECTRICA

TEL

Financial results Q3'09

4-Nov-09

ROMPETROL RAFINARE

RRC

Financial results Q3'09

5-Nov-09

SIF TRANSILVANIA

SIF3

Financial results Q3'09

6-Nov-09

TRANSILVANIA CONSTRUCTII

COTR

Financial results Q3'09

6-Nov-09

Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.

Date of event

11/4/2009

Romania Market Daily

BSE market BSE Ticker

Bloomberg CODE

Sector

BRD-GSG

BRD

BRD RO

Banking

Banca Transilvania

TLV

TLV RO

Banca Comerciala Carpatica

BCC

BCC RO

Petrom

SNP

RompetrolRafinare Transelectrica

Company

Closing (RON)

Mcap (mn)

Turnover (mn)

Price Performance (%)

EPS

BVPS

Gross DPS

P/E

P/Bv

DivYield

RON

EUR

RON

EUR

1Day

1M

y-t-d

y-o-y

2008

Latest*

2008

Latest*

2008

2008

Latest

2008

Latest

2008

12.4000

8641.579

2008.875

1.708

0.397

-1.59

7.83

50.30

54.04

1.9421

1.8137

6.3092

6.1912

0.7283

6.38

6.84

1.97

2.00

20.27

Banking

1.7900

1896.856

440.955

1.318

0.306

-1.10

14.74

-31.68

-31.68

0.3745

0.2798

1.6173

1.5690

0.0471

4.78

6.40

1.11

1.14

45.24

Banking

0.1000

201.255

46.785

0.049

0.011

-0.99

-5.66

-44.87

-53.31

0.0004

0.0028

0.1182

0.1224

0.0000

250.97

35.16

0.85

0.82

na

SNP RO

Oil&gas

0.2500

14161.027

3291.961

2.419

0.562

-2.72

1.63

38.12

25.00

0.0180

0.0050

0.2395

0.2455

0.0000

13.85

50.30

1.04

1.02

na

RRC

RRC RO

Oil&gas

0.0623

1314.485

305.573

0.154

0.036

-1.89

16.23

236.76

125.72

-0.0220

-0.0347

0.0741

0.0617

0.0000

na

na

0.84

1.01

na

TEL

TEL RO

Utilities

11.8000

864.977

201.078

0.060

0.014

0.00

-5.60

7.27

-16.90

0.5367

-0.9171

31.8317

32.1213

0.3000

21.99

na

0.37

0.37

46.83

Transgaz

TGN

TGN RO

Utilities

145.0000

1707.207

396.868

0.202

0.047

-2.03

-3.97

18.85

5.00

20.2645

22.5163 186.7792

189.8147

10.4700

7.16

6.44

0.78

0.76

16.49

Impact

IMP

IMP RO

Real-estate

0.5000

100.000

23.247

0.362

0.084

-5.66

-6.54

59.24

102.43

0.0411

-0.0191

1.6679

1.6754

0.0000

12.16

na

0.30

0.30

na

Flamingo

FLA

FLA RO

IT&C retail and distribution

0.0290

22.592

5.252

0.016

0.004

-2.36

-8.23

-3.33

-53.15

-0.0525

-0.0799

na

0.2077

0.0000

na

na

na

0.14

na

Alro

ALR

ALR RO

Aluminium producer

2.3400

1670.243

388.275

0.071

0.016

-5.65

-4.49

85.71

-28.88

0.3420

0.0847

1.9988

1.9488

0.2877

6.84

27.62

1.17

1.20

9.68

SIF Banat Crisana

SIF1

SIF1 RO

Financials

0.9850

540.617

125.675

1.055

0.245

-1.50

-10.45

80.73

71.30

0.1739

0.2416

0.9417

0.8796

0.0300

5.66

4.08

1.05

1.12

39.09

SIF Moldova

SIF2

SIF2 RO

Financials

0.9000

467.181

108.604

2.686

0.624

-3.23

-13.46

69.81

57.89

0.1810

0.2172

0.8884

0.7710

0.0450

4.97

4.14

1.01

1.17

23.81

SIF Transilvania

SIF3

SIF3 RO

Financials

0.5850

638.904

148.524

2.106

0.490

-4.88

-13.33

115.07

91.80

0.0867

0.1182

0.5463

0.5922

0.0300

6.75

4.95

1.07

0.99

23.21

SIF Muntenia

SIF4

SIF4 RO

Financials

0.6250

504.398

117.255

0.599

0.139

-1.57

-13.19

0.00

10.62

0.1110

0.1232

1.5688

1.3843

0.0400

5.63

5.07

0.40

0.45

18.60

SIF Oltenia

SIF5

SIF5 RO

Financials

1.0200

591.769

137.566

2.578

0.599

-2.86

-10.53

74.36

50.00

0.1511

0.3726

1.0741

1.0212

0.0600

6.75

2.74

0.95

1.00

20.24

Dafora

DAFR

DAFR RO

Drilling and civil engineering

0.1040

101.252

23.538

nt

nt

0.00

2.97

165.98

79.31

0.0028

-0.0010

0.1751

0.1756

0.0000

37.00

na

0.59

0.59

na

Condmag

COMI

COMI RO

Construction of gas, oil, crude oil pipelines

0.5650

97.630

22.696

0.187

0.043

-3.42

-2.59

139.41

101.07

0.0514

0.0794

0.4526

0.4890

0.0000

10.98

7.11

1.25

1.16

na

Rompetrol Well Services

PTR

PTR RO

Well services for oil&gas companies

0.4170

116.006

26.967

0.018

0.004

-0.71

18.80

39.00

80.52

0.0869

0.0692

0.3685

0.3733

0.0240

4.80

6.03

1.13

1.12

20.68

Rasdaq market Company

Albalact Prospectiuni

BSE Ticker

Bloomberg CODE

Sector

ALBZ

ALBZ RO

Diary producer

PRSN RO

Geological and Geophysical services

PRSN

Closing (RON)

Mcap (mn)

Turnover (mn)

Price Performance (%)

EPS

BVPS

Gross DPS

P/E

P/Bv

DivYield

RON

EUR

RON

EUR

1Day

1M

y-t-d

y-o-y

2008

Latest*

2008

Latest*

2008

2008

Latest

2008

Latest

2008

0.3500

228.448

53.106

0.105

0.024

-3.85

-1.96

66.67

100.00

0.0009

0.0038

0.1310

0.1332

nav

376.62

93.15

2.67

2.63

na

0.2050

147.200

34.219

0.068

0.016

-3.30

-8.48

75.21

43.36

0.0042

0.0326

0.2511

0.2817

nav

48.83

6.28

0.82

0.73

na

Imotrust

ARCV

ARCV RO

Real-estate

0.0940

29.030

6.748

0.017

0.004

-5.05

-7.84

106.59

9.05

0.0018

0.0018

0.4966

0.4966

nav

51.74

51.74

0.19

0.19

na

Iproeb

IPRU

IPRU RO

Wire producer

1.2800

60.892

14.155

0.039

0.009

-7.25

-7.25

42.22

-24.71

0.2579

0.0987

1.3684

1.2819

0.1260

4.96

12.97

0.94

1.00

12.09

Armax Gaz

ARAX

ARAX RO

Equipment producer related to oil&gas industry

0.0880

53.184

12.363

0.109

0.025

-1.79

-7.76

57.14

18.92

0.0051

0.0035

0.1243

0.1290

nav

17.17

24.82

0.71

0.68

na

Prefab

PREH

PREH RO

Construction materials producer

1.8400

89.301

20.760

0.002

0.001

2.22

-11.11

135.90

30.50

0.0986

0.0996

4.3540

4.2751

0.0923

18.67

18.48

0.42

0.43

23.73

Argus

UARG

ARTE RO

Crude oil and fats

1.2600

45.118

10.488

0.010

0.002

0.00

0.80

-30.00

-37.00

0.6399

0.4828

2.4527

2.4561

0.0700

1.97

2.61

0.51

0.51

21.43

Ceramica Iasi

CERE

CERE RO

Construction materials producer

0.8500

97.112

22.575

nt

nt

0.00

-4.49

-15.00

-22.73

0.0737

0.0572

0.8550

0.8550

nav

11.53

14.85

0.99

0.99

na

Conpet Ploiesti

COTE

COTE RO

Transport services via pipelines

30.0000

259.726

60.377

nt

nt

0.00

-0.33

17.65

35.75

7.7385

5.8190

55.7351

54.5392

4.0982

3.88

5.16

0.54

0.55

8.71

Comnord

COSC

COSC RO

Civil and industrial construction

1.1600

46.412

10.789

0.004

0.001

-1.69

-15.94

-20.55

-62.34

0.3531

0.1183

2.2479

2.2605

0.0000

3.29

9.80

0.52

0.51

na

ELMA RO

Instruments and appliances for measuring

0.4100

138.588

32.217

0.012

0.003

-1.20

-1.44

17.14

-16.84

0.0561

0.0561

0.6994

0.7380

0.0000

7.31

7.31

0.59

0.56

na

Electromagnetica

ELMA

* Based on H1'09 RAS financial results or latest financial results available

Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.

Romania Market Daily

BRD-GSG - Research Reports

Please read the terms and conditions stated at the end of the report.

11/4/2009

11/4/2009

Romania Market Daily

BRD-GSG - Research

+40 21 301 6850

[email protected]

Florian LIBOCOR

Chief Economist / Head of Research

+40 21 301 6869

[email protected]

Angeliu URSACHE Carmen LIPARĂ Florin HANŢILĂ,CFA Dana MUNTEANU

Senior Economist Senior Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst

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