The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2011-2020

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2014 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions

AGENDA The market in 2014 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion battery value chain The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015


Raw materials market Supplier / customer relationship Raw material cost New entrants strategy Raw material road map 2000-2030

xEV market in 2013/2014 xEV forecasts up to 2025 Could Lithium ion replace lead acid for industrial applications? Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025 2

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2014

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

Million HEV powered by LIB

2

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

1

REALITY AVICENNE 2007

0,5

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

March 9, 2015

IIT (MARCH 2011)

4

1,5

32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

5

IIT 2007

2,5

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

3

IIT (MARCH 2010)

2

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

ROLAND BERGER (2012) AVICENNE 2007-2012

1

AAB (2012) 0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

0 2010

2015

2020

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 3

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2000 Li-ion 1500 NiMH 1000 500

Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 500 Million Units/Year


Million Units / year

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

0

400

200

2000

2014

3 2,5

80000

2 $/Wh

100000

Tons of cathode / Year

2014

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

120000


170 M Portable PCs

100

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

March 9, 2015

230 M Tablets

300

0

2000


Li-ion

60000

1,5

40000

1

20000

0,5

0

0 2000

2014

2000

2014

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 4

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 70 000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

60 000

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

40 000

Li-ion

30 000

NiMH

20 000

NiCD

MWh

50 000


10 000 0 1990 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

2000

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2015: Estimations 5

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)


400 000

450 000

350 000

400 000 350 000

300 000

Others (Flow battery, 300 000 NAS, …)

250 000

NiMH

250 000 200 000

150 000 NiCD

150 000

Lead Acid

100 000

100 000

March 9, 2015

50 000

50 000



2015

2014

2013

2012

1990

2010

0

2015

2014

2013

2012

2010

2000

1990

0

2000


200 000

MWh

MWh

Li-ion

2015: Estimations 6

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015 60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014) 70

70

60

60

Li-ion

40 NiMH 30 NiCD

20

Lead Acid

10

March 9, 2015


AUTOMOTIVE 40

INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES

30

POWER TOOLS 20

PORTABLE SLI

10

2013 2014 2015

2013 2014 2015

1990 2000 2005 2010

0

0 1990 2000 2005 2010


OTHERS

50 Billion US$

50 Billion US $


Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


2015: Estimations

7

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION Battery market in 2014 (M$) Others

70 000

18 000 Other Applications

SLI Automotive


Portable

Marine

16 000 60 000

Medical devices

Other Applications

14 000

Marine Medical devices

Wheelchair

50 000

Medical Cart

SLI

Wheelchair

12 000 Other Stationary

Medical Cart Other Stationary

40 000

Seismic

ESS


Other Stand-by

Automotive

30 000

UPS

Portable

Telecom Other Motive

Seismic

10 000

US $ 20 Billion for “other” applications

ESS

8 000

Other Stand-by UPS

6 000 Telecom

20 000

Forklift

Other Motive

4 000

Power Tools E-Bikes

Forklift

10 000 2 000

Power Tools E-Bikes


0

0

Lead Acid

LIB

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

8

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, UNITS, 1995-2015 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, Million cells, 1995-2015

Which cell are we talking about?

9000 8000


7000

Million cells

6000 5000 4000

Front Edge Technology, Inc

3000 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

2000

March 9, 2015

1000

NiCd Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

2015: estimation data

NiMH

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

0

Li-ion GS Yuasa International / Lithium Energy Japan 9

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2015 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume, MWh, 1995-2015 70 000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

60 000

MWh

50 000


2004-2014(CAGR): +16% NiCd: -2% per year NiMH: +6 per year Li-ion: +21% per year

40 000

Li-ion NiMH

30 000

NiCd 20 000 10 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


2015: estimation data 10

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2015 The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$, 1995-2015 20000 18000


16000

2004 – 2014 CAGR):+12% NiCd: -6% per year NiMH: + 9% per year Li-ion: +14% per year

14000

M$

12000 Li-ion

10000

NiMH

8000 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015

NiCd

6000 4000 2000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

Note: Cell level 11

EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES Advantage of ...

Lead Acid

...On

Lead Acid


Nickel Cadmium NiCd


Lithium-Ion

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

Conventional


Lithium-Ion

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

Conventional

Laminate

• Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy • Volumetric energy density density • Operating temperature • Volumetric energy density range • Self discharge rate • Self discharge rate • Reliability (progressive extinction)

• • • •

Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate

• • • •

Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density

• • • •

Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Voltage output Self discharge rate

• • • •

Gravimetric energy density Volumetric energy density Self discharge rate Design characteristics

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Operating temperature range • Higher cyclability • Self discharge rate • Price

• • • •

Higher cyclability Price Safety Recyclability

• Operating temperature range • Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability

• • • •

• Higher cyclability • Price

• Operating temperature range • Higher cyclability • Price

• Volumetric energy density • Higher cyclability • Price

• Operating temperature range • Higher cyclability

• Higher cyclability • Price

• Operating temperature range • Price

• Volumetric energy density

• • • •

Laminate

Absolute advantages

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature range • Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Self discharge rate Price Safety Discharge rate Recyclability

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature range • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics • Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density (potentially) • Design characteristics • Safety • Price

Gravimetric energy density • Gravimetric energy Volumetric energy density density Self discharge rate • Volumetric energy density Voltage output • Self discharge rate • Voltage output • Design characteristics

12

JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market in 2001 to < 40% in 2014 Rechargeable battery(1) market by country The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

90% 80%

LIB market by country

Japan

80%

Korea

70%

Japan Korea

China

70%

China

60%

60%

50%

50% 40%


2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

0% 2009

0%

2008

10%

2007

10%

2006

20%

20%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

March 9, 2015

30%

30%

2005


40%

(1) Excluding lead acid batteries 13

CYLINDRICAL LI-ION BATTERY Cylindrical LIB market Company market share in 2014 in volume: 1925 Million cells (+3%) SONY 7%

LG 18%

Million cells


OTHERS 7%

SANYOPANASONIC 39%

March 9, 2015

2 000 1 500

1 000

350 ppm1

LG

400 ppm

500 1000 Note: ppm: piece per minutes Ah / min

18650 for TESLA

Cylindrical cells (M) by mfg.

400 ppm

0

1 000

Assumptions: TESLA sold 35 kEV in 2014, 55 kEV in 2015 and 100 kEV in 2016

SDI

1

1 500

18650 cells for Portable PC & others

Production Speed: 18650 – 2,8Ah cells


2 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Production speed (-> cost) Performances Customer (Portable PCs) access

PANASONIC

2 500

-

Key success factor • • •

3 000

500

SAMSUNG 29%


SANYO-PANASONIC, SDI & LG will share the market

1500

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 PANASONIC-SANYO Sony SDI LG Others Source: Interviews with LG, SAMSUNG, SANYO-PANASONIC

14

PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERY Prismatic LIB market Company market share in 2014 in volume: 1200 Million cells (-5%)

1 800

OTHERS 5%

1 600 1 400

BYD 8%

SAMSUNG SDI 26%

LISHEN 8%

1 000 800

BAK 7%

600

Panasonic-Sanyo BYD OTHERS Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

SDI LISHEN

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

LG 19%

200

2007

March 9, 2015

400

2006

MAXELL 12%

2005

SANYOPANASONI C 15%

2004


1 200

2003


Prismatic cells (M) by Mfg. : SAMSUNG is leading

LG BAK


LI-LAMINATE BATTERY Laminate battery market Company market share in 2014 in volume: 2 220 Million cells (+32%) The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

SONY 15% 1500


Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

Panasonic-Sanyo LG LISHEN

Sony MAXELL BAK

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

0 2007

LG Chemical 12%

2006

LISHEN 8%

500

2005

BAK 2%

SAMSUNG SDI 13%

2004

BYD 5%

1000

2003

ATL 16%

PANASONIC 3%

March 9, 2015

2500

2000

OTHERS 26%


Pouch cells (M) by Mfg. SONY, ATL and SAMSUNG are leading this market

SDI BYD ATL 16

LI-ION IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 400 M cells –46 000 MWh 13 600 M$ (2) The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

CAGR 2004/2014 +21 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014

60 000

40 000

35 000

50 000

30 000

40 000 M Wh

25 000

20 000

15 000 10 000

10 000

5 000

March 9, 2015

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-

Cellular Phones Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

20 000

2015 estimation data

Portable PCs

Others

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


M Wh

30 000

Tablets Digital Camera Toys E-bikes

Power Tools Video Games Auto Others

Camcorders MP3 Household devices

17

LI-ION IN 2014 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 250 M cells – 45 000 MWh 13 300 M$ (2) The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

CAGR 2004/2014 +20 % per year in Volume +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1) 16 000

12000

14 000

10000

March 9, 2015

8 000 6 000

4000

4 000

2000

2 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-

Cellular Phones Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

6000

Portable PCs

Note: (1) 2013: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level

Others

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


8000

10 000 M$

M$

12 000

Automotives Camcorders Games

Tablets Digital camera E-Bikes

Power tools MP3 Others 18

CELLULAR PHONES MARKET > 1980 M LIB CELLS IN 2014 +1800 M cell phones sold in 2013 (+7% CAGR) M cellular phones/year

500


300

NOKIA MOTOROLA

APPLE

100

SAMSUNG

LG

APPLE

RIM

ZTE

SONY

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

MOTOROLA

350

200

2010

2013

1400 M Phones

1800 M Phones

100

NOKIA 33%

ZTE 4% RIM 3% LG 8%

APPLE 3%

SAMSUNG 20%

NOKIA 14% Others 42%

SAMSUNG 25%

ZTE HUAWEI LG APPLE 4% 3% 4% 8%

-23%

250

150

March 9, 2015


2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000 NOKIA

+ 13% (2012/2013 growth)

400

300

Others 29%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2013

500 450

400

0


Pris. 50%

Samsung Galaxy & I-phone change the game SAMSUNG

200

Lam. 50%

+13%

+67%

50

+25%

0

Standard

Smartphones

19

CELLULAR PHONES/LIB SUPPLIERS RELATIONSHIPS 2013 Cellular Phone makers / battery suppliers relation

Smartphones ie laminate LIB increasing 2 000

ZTE APPLE

1 800

LG Chem

1 600

Samsung 1 400 Sanyo


100

200

300

M cells in 2013 SDI LGC

Sony

400

500

Lishen

ATL

APPLE needs in 2013

1 000 800

Mac 400

iPhone

200

iPod

-

0 ATL Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

1 200

600

IPad March 9, 2015

M cells / Year

Nokia

50 SDI

100 150 M Cells in 2013 LG

SONY

200 LISHEN

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


NiMH

LIB Pr.

LIB La.

20

Lam. 19%

PORTABLE PC MARKET 990 M LIB CELLS IN 2014 195 M portable PCs sold 2012/2013: -3% 35% 30% M Portable PC/year

200

25% 20%

150

15% 10%

100

5% 0%

50

Increase of Ultra-thin Portable PCs

March 9, 2015

Acer

HP Lenovo

Toshiba Asus

100% % of Portable PC sold

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

-10%

2002

0

Dell


Uncertain macro & weakness in both consumer & commercial growth No sign for end-customer demand recovery Decrease due to cannibalization by tablets Small overall decrease only thanks to Emerging market growth

-5% 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

Cyl. 80%

Market outlook 2014

250


Pris. 1%

80%

16in

60%

15in 14in

40%

13in

20%

11-12in Netbook

APPLE

Others

Growth/years

0% 2010


2011

2012

2013

Note: Excluding Tablets 21

TABLET MARKET > 550 M CELLS IN 2013 Tablets sold (Million) Apple leadership

High growth driven by rapid ASP drop Growth driven by

M tablets /year

200 150

Others

100

Samsung

50

mature market (77%) consumer market (95%)

Apple

0

Apple (33%), Samsung (20%), Asus (6%), Acer, Lenovo, Amazon are the key competitors

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Gartner, IDC, Display search – 2013: AVICENNE Estimation

March 9, 2015

ASP tablets drop From $636 in Q4 2010 to $335 in Q4 2013: - 47% in 36 months Average Price (US $)



Market Outlook 2013

250 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

Lam. 100%

700 600 500

636

607

616 550

522

508

500

480

400 300

449

405

370

345

335

200 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013


iPad

Non i-Pad

Total 22

LIB BATTERY SHORT TERM TRENDS Higher capacity, thinner battery, Pouch cells have the highest growth

18650 battery capacity*

Cellular phones battery capacity

100%

100% > 3Ah

80%


2,8Ah 2.6Ah

60%

2.4Ah

40%

2.2Ah

20%

2.0Ah 1.8Ah

0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

<=1.6Ah

> 1800 mAh 80%

1600 mAh

60%

1400 mAh 1200 mAh

40%

1000 mAh 20%

800 mAh < 800 mAh

0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

*1C rate or laptop type 18650 cells

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates

March 9, 2015

3 000 2 500 M cells /year


100%

2 000

1 500

80%

1 000

60%

500

40%

-


Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates in 2013

2010 Li-ion Cyl Laminate

2011

2012

2013 2014 2015 Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl excl Tesla

Li-ion cylindrical: “Tesla impact”: 150 M cells in 2013, 300M in 2014, 600 M in 2015

Others TESLA

Power Tools Tablets

20%

Portable PCs

0%

Cellular Cylindrical Prismatic Laminates

23

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING DRASTICALLY In 10 Years 80% price decreasing despite a fluctuating Co price

1,00

Ni & Co price 2003-2015

0,80

140 120

Ni

100

Co

$/kg


Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

0,60 0,40

80

0,20

60

0,00

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cylindrical

20 0

Prismatic

Laminate

Note- Q4 2013: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh

‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15

Source: LME

3 000

50%

ATL

2 500

40%

Lishen

200

E-One

150

LG

100

SDI MAXELL

50

SONY

1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q11 4Q 11


BAK

2 000

30%

1 500 20%

1 000 500

10%

-

0%

Over supply Ratio

250

18650 oversupply ratio is decreasing thanks to TESLA M cells /Year

March 9, 2015

300 M cells /month


Production capacity 2009/2011: from 150 to 250 M cells/month

PANASONIC SANYO

Standard Demand

TESLA

Production Capacity

Oversupply ratio

24

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 105 OOO T in 2014 Revenues: 2,5 B$ CAGR 04/14: +16% MANUFACTURERS

PACK MANUFACTURERS

Revenues: 13,6 B$

Revenues: 19,6 B$

Gross margin: <10%

Gross margin: <10%

CELL

ANODE


57 000 T Revenues: 0,8 B$ CAGR 03/13: +14%

ELECTROLYTE 44 000 T Revenues: 0,68 B$ CAGR 04/14 : 20%

SEPARATOR 695 M m² Revenues: 1,15 B$ CAGR 04/14 : 18% 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015

BINDER 7 100 Tons Revenues: 0,2 B$ CAGR 08/13 : 15%

ANCILLARY Revenues: 0,7 B$ Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

25

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS SUPPLY BY CHEMISTRY LCO – >45 KT (2014)

Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand)

Other China 8% L&F 16%

120 000 100 000

LMO

60 000

NMC

40 000

B&M 10% Easpring 6%

LMO – > 18 KT (2014) Reshine Nichia 8% 7%

LCO Other China 31%

20 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-

March 9, 2015

LEADERS:


Umicore 16%

LFP

NCA


Shan Internal Shan 3% Nichia 10% 13%

Reshine 16%

80 000 Tons


Others 2%

ShanShan 9%

NMC1 – > 35 KT (2014) SUMITOMO 16%

Qyanyun 11%

Nichia 11%

TODA 4%

Umicore Other China 24% 8% Reshine Others 3% 5% ShanShan Internal L&F 8% 11% 6% 1- Including NCA

LFP – > 10 KT (2014)

Nippon Denko 8% Other 5% Internal 5% JGC 16%

NKS 4%

Tatung 12% Others 30%

Valence 6% Formosa 8%

A123 10%

Aleees 18% Other Japan 5% Clariant Internal 5% 6%

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

(…) 26

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2025 Cathode active materials 2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in 2014: 105 000 Tons

400000

LFP 10%

350000 300000 LFP

250000 Tons


LMO 200000

NCA

150000

NMC

100000

LCO

0

March 9, 2015


NMC 22%

NCA 9%

Cathode active materials in 2025: > 350 000 Tons


LCO 40%

LMO 19%

2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: 2013-2025: +11% per year in volume HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB Industrial & stationary 2013-2025: +16% per year

LFP 23%

LMO 12%

LCO 30%

NCA 10%

NMC 25%

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000) 27

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS 57 000 TONS IN 2014 LIB Anode Materials


Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

Source: Hitachi Chemical

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials 1,0

40000

0,8

30000

0,6

Si or Sn Type Amorphous Carbon

20000

0,4

Meso-Phase

10000

0,2

Artificial Graphite 2013

2500

2012

2000

2011

1500

2010

1000

2009

500

2008

0

2007

0

0,0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

LTO

2006

March 9, 2015

50000

1,2

Tons


Natural Graphite

Source: Sanyo, March 2011 28

ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014 Natural graphite become a commodity


Others A123 BAK ATL Maxell Lishen BYD LGC SDI PANASONIC SONY SANYO

ARTIFICIAL MCMB

Capacity (/g)

Natural Graphite 64%

March 9, 2015

Graphite

400 mAh/g

250 mAh/g

325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++

0

+

Amorphous

Power

++

+

0

METAL

Stability

++

+

0

+

0

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum coke

Cyclability ++ Source: Hitachi Chemical Petroleum Precursors Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts…

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2013)


Soft Carbon

NATURAL

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Artificial Graphite 26%

Hard Carbon

MCMB 4% Amorphous 4% Si or Sn Type 1%

COST 2012>2020

30 -> 25 $/kg

25->20 $/kg

15 -> 10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS

KUREHA

HITACHI

HITACHI BTR & many others

LTO 1%

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

LEADERS:



(…) 29

LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2014 LIB separator market, M$, CAGR 2004/2014: +17%

LIB Separator supplier, market share in 2014

1400 1200


UBE 7%

M$

1000

Others 14%

800 CELGARD 14%

600

TORAY 23%

400 SK 13% ENTEK 3%

200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


ASAHI 25%

SUMITOMO 1%

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

March 9, 2015

LEADERS:



Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)

30

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 44 000 TONS IN 2014 LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 2004/2014: +23%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 2014

50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 Tons


Soulbrain 7%

25000

10000 5000 0


2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Cellular Power tools PHEV

Portable PC E-bikes EV

Tablets HEV Others

Jinniu 8% Mitsui 3%

GTHR 15%

PANAXETEC 13%


LEADERS:

Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang

In-house 9% Tomiyama 3%

Cap Chem 8%

15000

March 9, 2015

Mitsubishi Chem 14%

ShanShan 7%

20000


Others UBE 5% 8%

JINNIU Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

31

LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2014 Electrolyte Battery makers & suppliers relation in 2014

5 000

4 000

2 000


In-house GTHR Cap Chem Others

(1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house

Tomiyama Mitsui ShanShan

Ube Tomiyama Mitsui Shanshan

Mitsubishi PANAX Jinniu Soulbrain

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

10000

2008

5000 Tons

2007

-

Mitsubishi Chem Jinniu Soulbrain

Mitsui Tomiyama

1 000

0

PANAX-ETEC

In-House Jinniu Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain Ube

3 000

2006

March 9, 2015

GTHR Mitsubishi PANAX (2)

2005


6 000

Others TOSHIBA Yuasa (BEC) YUASA (LEJ) NEC A123 BAK ATL Maxell Lishen BYD LG Chem SDI Panasonic Sony

Tons


Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2013

In-House GTHR Capchem

(2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 32

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 2014-2025 Applications covered




Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Parameters analysis Main segment trends Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time) Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor, 2013 -2025 Forecasts OEM strategies and positions Main drivers & limiters

33

Cyl. 25%

CELLULAR PHONES FORECASTS 2010-2025 Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR 2010-2025: +6% 4 000

OTHERS INDIA

3 000


2 000 1 000 -

ASIA CHINA JAPAN

Lam. 50% Pris. 25%


Cellular Phones market Drivers Emergent market Renewal ratio increase Smartphone penetration increase

EUROPE

USA

LIB cells demand 2014-2025 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75% 100% 80%

March 9, 2015

60% 40% 20% 0%


Polymer Prismatic

LIB cells for cellular phones trends Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >1400 mAh capacity


PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES FORECASTS 2010-2025 Portable PCs demand (M Units) 2010-2025 CAGR: +4% 400 300


200

Emerging

100

Mature

0

Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

100%

60%

Laminate

40%

Prismatic

20%

Cylindrical

0% Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28% 80%

March 9, 2015

Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2)) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012 (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel

LIB cells demand 2010-2025 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

Portable PCs market trends

Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025 > 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market


2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)

Others

70000

7000

Household


MP3 5000

Camcorders

MWh

40000

Cordless Phones

M cells/year

Video Games

50000

Digital Camera

4000 3000

Tablets


6000

Toys

60000

Portable PCs

2000

Cellular Phones

20000

1000

March 9, 2015

10000

0 2000 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

0


Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

2005 2010 2015 2020 Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

2025

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4 36

X-EV MARKET


Why x-EV ? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 2013 By country By car makers By battery chemistry

X-EV forecasts 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015

AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts

X-EV battery forecasts Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

37

SAFETY ISSUES


CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”) CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)

Aircraft

March 9, 2015

•

Mobile 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

Automotive


Background

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

38

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025



39

LIB BATTERY COST Costs analysis


Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure : CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)



Raw material needs / mAh Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost …

Battery price in 2013 $/kWh 1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 LIB 18650 cell

LIB EV LIB pack LIB HEV LIB pack Cell for EV cell for HEV

40

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV € 8,250 - € 50 - € 5,500 € 18,100 € 300 € 8,000

HV batt. Pack for EV € 8,150 € 15,100

HV batt. CELL for EV

€ 100 € 400 € 50 - € 1,000 € 400 € 2,500


€ 1,500 € 3,000

€ 150 - € 150 € 250 € 350 € 300 € 500 € 900 € 1,250

€ 150 € 350 Batt. HV Cooling Inverter Charger Packaging battery Syst Rectifier Manuf. cell LV Packaging Batt. DC/DC Generator HV battery material Magt converter Inverter Cables & pack Syst Connectors

Overall


12 000 € 8 000 €

Pack Manufacturing

6 000 €

BMS

4 000 €

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

2 000 €

Cell manu

0€ Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

Power Elec

10 000 €

Active Hybrid 5

HEV

Volt

P-HEV

AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

Bluecar

Leaf

Cell

EV 41

LI-ION BATTERY COST 2013-2020 LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) FOR EV 600

350


Margin 300

Pack Cost

Overheads 250

$ / kWh

Energy, utilities

200

Direct labor Depreciation

150

$ / kWh

Sales & Adm R&D


500

Warranty 400

Cell Manufacturing

300

Other Materials

200

Separator

Others Separator

100

Electrolyte

March 9, 2015

Electrolyte

100

Anode (1)

0 2014 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

2015

(1) Active materials only

2020

2014*

2015*

Pack

Cell

Pack

Cell

Pack

Cathode (1)

Anode

0 Cell

50

2020*

Cathode

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year 42

HEV FORECASTS 2000-2020 HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 – 7 M in 2025


Million

7

5 20% 4 15% 3 10%

2

USA

EUROPE

OTHERS

WORLD

Micro hybrid not included

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

0 2010

0% 2008

1

2006

5%

2000

March 9, 2015

8

6

25%

2004


30%

2002


HEV penetration (% of total car sales)

35%

2000

2005

2010

USA

EUROPE

2015

2020

2025

JAPAN JAPAN

OTHERS


LONG TERM HEV FORECAST FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020


Million HEV worldwide / Year

AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS 10 9

Pike Research

8

Roland Berger Deutsche Bank (2010)

7

AVICENNE Credit Suisse (2010)

6 5


4 3 AAB

2 1 0 2010


2015

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2013 Micro hybrid not included

2020

2025

44

X EV FORECASTS 2011-2020 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020 5


IIT (MARCH 2011)

EV 4

P-HEV

10000

HEV 3

1000

IIT (MARCH 2010)

E-bikes 2

1


ROLAND BERGER (2012) AVICENNE 2007-2012 AAB (2012)

0


25000




EV impact on the LIB & raw material market is HUGE

2010 2015 2020 IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

400

Power Tools

45

Portable PC

50

Mobile Phone

4 1

10

100

1 000 10 000 100 000

Average Wh per device

45

XEV 2025 FORECASTS HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 2025


March 9, 2015

10

100%

9

90%

8 7 Million cars


6

1

5

0,5

1,5

80%

0,65

70% 60%

4

7

3

0,37 0,15

2

0

5

EV

50%

P-HEV

40%

HEV

30% 20% 10%

2,5

1 0,9

2010 2015 2020 2025 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

LIB penetration in HEV 2010-2025

0%

2010

2015 NiMH

2020

2025

LIB

46

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR AUTO FORECASTS EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 2013-2020: +23% The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

Rechargeable battery market for Auto(1), M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 CAGR 2014-2020: +14% 20 000

60 000

18 000 50 000

16 000 14 000

40 000


10 000

30 000

M$

M Wh

12 000

8 000 20 000

6 000 4 000

10 000

2 000 -

2005


2010

2015

NiMH for HEV LIB for P-HEV Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

2020

2025

2005

2010

NiMH for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for HEV LIB for EV (1) Pack level

2015

2020

2025

LIB for HEV LIB for EV

47

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 2020 Micro-hybrids car market 2010-2020 Micro-hybrid car sold per year 80


70 60 AVICENNE Million

50


Optimistic Scenario

40

Micro-hybrid

Full HEV

Battery

Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($)

300

3000

Fuel saving

5%

20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35

3.5

JD Power 30 Valeo 20 10 0 2010


Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2

2015

2020

48

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES MICRO HYBRIDS 10%

STANDARD CAR 88.5%

MILD HEV 0.5%

FULL HEV 1%

EV P-HEV

2010

2020

AFTER Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

ULTRA BATTERY

MICRO HYBRID 50%

Li-ion

Li-ion batteries

March 9, 2015

STANDARD CAR 44%

NiMH NiMH batteries


Advanced Lead acid

2015

Standard Lead acid Batteries


FULL HEV 4%

EV P-HEV 2%

Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells

49

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2013 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 450 000


Lead Acid Batteries 330 GWh for US $ 30 Billion

400 000

350 000 Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

64%

300 000

Industrial


MWh

Li-ion NiMH

3%

250 000 200 000

E-bikes 33%

Industrial Batteries 54 GWh for US $ 10 Billion

NiCD 150 000

Telecom

Lead Acid

22%

100 000 24%

2%

0 1990 2000 2010 2013 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2014

UPS 12%

50 000


SLI

40%

Other Stationary Forklift Other motive 50

BATTERY FOR OTHER APPLICATION US$ 18 BILLION1 MARKET Battery market in 2013 (M$) SLI

60000

Battery Market Power Tools E-bikes

Automotive Portable


Other Applications Marine

50000

SLI

Medical devices Wheelchair

40000

Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic


30000

Automotiv e

ESS

Portable

Other Stand-by UPS

20000

Industrial

M$

Forklifts Motive Others TOTAL MOTIVE Telecom back-up UPS Misc. Standby Stationary ESS Seismic (1) Other Stationary Total STATIONARY TOTAL INDUSTRIAL

Medical Cart Wheelchair Medical Device (1) Marine Others TOTAL

1400 2290 3 570 180 3 750 2 900 2 400 315 450 210 1090 7 370 11 120 150 47 1150 450 1 000 17 600

(1) 500 M$ for Li-ion - Source: Zprime 2011

Telecom Other Motive Forklift

10000

Power Tools


E-Bikes

0 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2014

51

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2013: US $ 54 BILLION Battery market in 2013 (M$) SLI

60000

18 000 Other Applications

Automotive


Other Applications

50000

Medical devices

14 000

Marine

Wheelchair

SLI

Medical devices Wheelchair

Marine

16 000

Portable

Medical Cart

12 000

40000

Other Stationary

Medical Cart

Seismic


Seismic

10 000

Other Stationary

30000

Automotive

ESS

8 000

ESS

Other Stand-by

Portable

Other Stand-by

20000

UPS

6 000 Telecom

UPS

March 9, 2015 Telecom Other Motive

Other Motive

4 000

Forklift

10000

Forklift

2 000

Power Tools

Power Tools E-Bikes


E-Bikes

0

0

Lead Acid

LIB

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2014

52

TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL1) Application details

US$ 18 Billion in 2013

Battery Market Power Tools E-bikes



M$

Forklifts Motive Others TOTAL MOTIVE Telecom back-up UPS Misc. Standby Stationary ESS Seismic (1) Other Stationary Total STATIONARY TOTAL INDUSTRIAL

Industrial

E-Bikes Power Tools

1400 2290 3 570 180 3 750 2 900 2 400 315 450 210 1090 7 370 11 120 150 47 1150 450 1 000 17 600

Medical Cart Wheelchair Medical Device (1) Marine Others TOTAL

Forklift Other Motive Marine 3% Other App 6% Medical devices E-Bikes 6% 12% Power Tools 9% Forklift 20%

Telecom UPS Other Stand-by ESS Seismic Other Stationary Medical Cart

UPS 14%

Wheelchair Medical devices

Telecom 17%

Marine Other App (2)

March 9, 2015

1


2

3

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2013

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 53 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…

“OTHER APPLICATIONS” 10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1 Battery market in 2012 (M$) Other Applications

Marine

18 000

18000

16 000

16000

14 000

14000

12 000

12000

10 000

10000

Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic

Other Stand-by 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015

UPS

> US$ 10 B

ESS 8 000

6 000

8000

> US$ 7 B


Battery market in 2020 (M$)

6000

Telecom Other Motive

4 000

4000

2 000

2000

0

0

Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

LIB

Lead Acid

LIB

For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries 54 1- Pack level

LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS 2013 -2025

Portable: from 28 to 83 GWh Automotive: from 6 to 50 GWh « Others »: from 5 to 30 GWh Li-ion Pack market1 (B$)

Li-ion cell market (B$) The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

45

50

40

45 40

35

35 30 30 25

Others (2)

Automotive


15

March 9, 2015

10

Portable

Automotive

Portable

20 15 10

5

5

0

0 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025


Others (2) 25

2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical… Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014

55

TAKEAWAYS




Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market

775 GWh 575 GWh

MWh

Battery Market 2010-2025 CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

Others LIB

380 GWh 280 GWh

NiMH NiCd Lead Acid

2000

2010

2020

2025 > 100 B$

(Pack level)

4,3

83 B$ 64 B$

15

54B$ 25 B$

18

13

10 52 32

2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 Lead Acid (+4%) NiMH (-4%) LIB for xEV (+16%) Others

NiCd (-5%) LIB for 3C (+3%) LIB for Others* (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025)

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, … 56

THANK YOU


Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY [email protected] Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49



57

About AVICENNE ENERGY

AVICENNE ENERGY JANUARY 2015

Christophe PILLOT [email protected] +33(0)1 4778 4600

AVICENNE PROFILE Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

Headquarter: Paris Liaison Office: Japan, USA AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot



5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

The Rechargeable Battery market 23rd Edition

Customized survey

60

OUR BUSINESS STORY 1992

•AVICENNE Creation

•AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities 1994 •AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN


1999

2003

2008

•« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris •AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL

•AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict

•AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – 2009 China


•Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN 2010 •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020

•AVICENNE Energy division is created 2011 •13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress

2012


•21st Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2011-2025

•23rd Edition of our Battery Market Syrvey •16th Edition of BATTERIES Congress in NICE, France • 1 month mission in China: Qinghai EV Rally, CIBF, 50 companies visited

61

OUR METHODOLOGY Track valuable Information's

Presentation of the results 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT March 9, 2015


Q&A with customers

Customer Evaluation

SUPPLY SIDE

Strategic Analysis

Primary Research

DEMAND SIDE


INFORMATION COLLECTION Secondary Research

Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

Case Studies Reference Customers

MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS Qualitative

Quantitative

Strategic

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025

In Depth analysis Of applications

Cross Check Analysis

Conferences & Exhibitions

Battery Makers Substitution technologies



OEM

Raw materials suppliers

BMS Electronics Environment & recycling

CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN


Source : Photo from BASF

Raw Materials 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

BMS & Electronics

Batteries

March 9, 2015

Cooling Systems Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected]

Power Electronics

MORE THAN 200 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE




3M A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS ARKEMA AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATL AMPEREX AT KEARNEY AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY ASSOCIATION OF KOREA BAYER BLACK & DECKER BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BOOZ BRUCKNER BUHLER GMBH BYD CABOT CALL2RECYCLE CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DELTA DGA

DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FREUDENBERG VLIESSTOFFE SE & CO FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON ICC NEXERGY IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ISRAEL CONSULTING ITRI ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS

JOHNSON MATTHEY KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP – RUSSIA NEC NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC ORANGE OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE PLEXTRONICS POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER ROSKILL INFORMATION SERVICES SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN

SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SEPCELL SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SQM SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TREOFAN TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WILDCAT WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

65

SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP MODERATOR Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year


Extended Battery Life Working Group on battery technology development for mobile devices Meeting Tokyo Japan , Dec 2014 – 1h30 Presentation “The battery market for mobile 2013-2025” BATTERIES 2014, FRANCE – (1999-2014) Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2013-2025”

INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2013, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2012-2020”

AABC Europe, Mainz (2012, 2013, 2015) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020”

THE INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2014 – 2h tutorial

“HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2014)


EVER 2009, 2011, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe” EVS 2011, 2013 “Battery market for automotive industry” CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide” Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009, 2010, 2012 Chairman & speaker,

“The battery business 2009-2020” EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee)


“The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges” China Industry Battery Fair 2006, 2010, 2014 “The Chinese battery Industry” …

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020 5

1,6

IIT (MARCH 2011)

IIT 2007 1,4


1,2

IIT 2008

1

0,8


0,6

IIT 2009 IIT 2010

0,4

March 9, 2015

3

IIT (MARCH 2010)

2


ROLAND BERGER (2012) AVICENNE 2007-2012

1 0,2

AVICENNE 2007 REALITY

0



4

Million HEV powered by LIB


2009

2010

2011

2012

AAB (2012) 0 2010

2015

2020

HEV powered Lithium ion battery Source : International Battery Conference, Fortby Lauderdale forecasts from 2008 to 2012 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

67

BATTERIES 2015 www.batteriesevent.com




3 days congress in France (Paris, Nice, Cannes) 17th Edition (first edition in 1999) 500 attendees 40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating, 80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

SUMMARY A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025



Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, … Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups

We will help and support your growth

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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2011-2020

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