ISSN: 1554-9089
Office of the Chief Economist
WASDE - 573
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
January 12, 2018
WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 20 million bushels and reflects disappearance for June - November as indicated by the December 1 and revised September 1 stocks released in the NASS Grain Stocks report. All wheat exports are unchanged at 975 million bushels; however, a 10 million bushel decrease in Hard Red Spring exports is offset by 5-million-bushel increases each for Soft Red Winter and White wheat. Total supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports while production and the season-average farm price are unchanged. Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are lowered 0.8 million tons on reduced beginning stocks, more than offsetting increased production. World beginning stocks are lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on a large 2016/17 production cut for Australia, reflecting updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data. World production for 2017/18 is raised 1.8 million tons led by a 2.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.8-million-ton increased for Pakistan. Partially offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction for the EU. All these production changes reflect updated government data. Global exports are lowered 1.3 million tons led by reductions for Australia and the EU that reflect decreased supplies and increase market competition. Russian exports, in contrast, are raised 1.5 million tons to a record 35.0 million on increased supplies and competitive prices. Global use for 2017/18 is lowered fractionally and ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 268.0 million, which remain record large. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month as an increase in yield to a record 176.6 bushels per acre is partially offset by a 0.4-millionacre reduction in harvested area. Among the major producing states, yields are estimated to be record high in Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio. FSI is raised 10 million bushels, reflecting an estimated amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose during September-November that was above expectations. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5,550 million based on indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks. With supply rising and use falling, corn stocks are up 40 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.25 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint based on observed prices to date. Sorghum production for 2017/18 is estimated 8 million bushels higher as an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre more than offsets a marginal reduction in harvested area. Grain sorghum prices are forecast at $3.15 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.
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Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 0.3 million tons higher to 1,324.2 million. This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption and greater trade relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Russia, Vietnam and the Philippines more than offsetting an increase for Pakistan. Russia’s corn production is down based on harvest results to date. Vietnam corn production is reduced as the impact of heavy rain during the growing season in the northern production area was worse than previously expected. Barley production is down as a reduction for Russia more than offsets an increase for Argentina. Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include lower corn exports for Russia, partially offset by an increase for Thailand. Brazil’s 2016/17 corn exports are reduced based on observed shipments to date for the local marketing year that started in March 2017. Imports for 2017/18 are lowered for Iran but increased for Vietnam and the Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher than last month, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 206.6 million, are up 2.5 million from last month. RICE: U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is 178.2 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate and down 20 percent from last year. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,507 pounds per acre, up 46 pounds from the prior estimate. Long-grain production is raised to 127.9 million cwt and medium- and short-grain production is lowered to 50.4 million. All rice domestic and residual usage is increased by 5.0 million cwt to 120.0 million on higher-than-expected usage for August-November as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report. Projected U.S. all rice exports are reduced by 3.0 million cwt to 100.0 million, all for long-grain on slower-than-expected exports to Western Hemisphere markets. Projected 2017/18 all rice ending stocks are reduced 1.8 million cwt to 29.2 million, the lowest level since 2003/04. The projected 2017/18 season-average farm price for all rice is reduced 20 cents at both ends of the range to $12.10 to $13.10 per cwt, primarily due to lower-than-expected long-grain prices reported to date by NASS. Global 2017/18 rice supplies are increased by 1.3 million tons to 622.8 million, primarily on larger crops for the Philippines and Pakistan. Philippine rice production is projected at a record 12.0 million tons, mainly on larger harvested area, also a record. World 2017/18 consumption increases 1.0 million tons to 481.8 million on higher expected usage in China, Ecuador, Nigeria, Vietnam, and the United States. Global 2017/18 trade is raised to 45.8 million tons on higher exports by China and India more than offsetting lower U.S exports. Trade is slightly below the 2016/17 record of 46.0 million tons. World ending stocks are projected fractionally higher to 141.1 million tons for 2017/18 and are at the highest level since 2000/01 with China holding over 66 percent of total stocks. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is estimated at 131.3 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by increases for canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4,392 million bushels, down 33 million on lower yields. Harvested area is estimated at 89.5 million acres, up fractionally from the previous forecast. Yield is estimated at 49.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels, led by reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 1,950 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2,160 million, reflecting lagging sales commitments through December and increased competition with higher soybean production and export forecasts
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for Brazil. Ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous forecast. The 2017/18 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $8.80 to $9.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast of 32 to 35 cents per pound is lowered 1 cent at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $295 to $335 per short ton. Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States. The Brazil soybean crop is increased 2 million tons to 110 million reflecting higher yield estimates in recent government reports. Soybean production for Argentina is reduced 1 million tons to 56 million on lower area planted to date, particularly in northern Argentina. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Ukraine and lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina. Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 176.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Lower U.S. soybean and Australian rapeseed shipments are partly offset by increased soybean exports for Brazil and rapeseed for Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 111.2 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly on higher soybean stocks for Brazil and the United States and higher rapeseed stocks for Australia. Partly offsetting are lower soybean stocks for Argentina and sunflowerseed stocks for the EU. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2017/18 is increased by 72,353 short tons, raw value (STRV), mainly due to increases in expected cane sugar production partially offset by a decrease in beet sugar production. Louisiana cane sugar production for 2017/18 is increased by 130,000 STRV to 1.820 million due to a strong harvest campaign that is expected to extend into mid-January, according to industry reporting. Florida cane sugar production is increased by 39,038 STRV to 2.075 million based on processors’ estimates of sugar yield per acre made at the end of December. Beet sugar production for 2017/18 is decreased by 102,455 STRV to 5.257 million based on lower sugarbeet production reported by NASS. Additionally, beginning stocks are increased by 15,438 STRV based on inventory revisions submitted by processors to Sweetener Market Data. These supply increases are slightly offset by a reduction of 9,668 STRV due to fewer imports forecast to enter under FTA tariff-rate quotas. U.S. sugar use for 2017/18 is increased by a 50,000-STRV export increase consisting mostly of shipments to Mexico, part of which is expected to be under the U.S. re-export program. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 1.824 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.4 percent. In Mexico, an increase in imports of 40,000 metric tons (MT) is offset by an increase in exports to non-U.S. destinations. The ending stocks total for 2017/18 remains at 1.008 million MT, an amount to meet sugar supply requirements of domestic consumption before the next season harvest. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The estimate of 2017 total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Based on preliminary data, beef and turkey production estimates are lowered, more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production. The egg production estimate is raised modestly on late-2017 production data. For 2018, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as higher expected pork, beef, and
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broiler production offsets lower turkey production. The 2018 beef production forecast is raised as higher cattle placements in late 2017 are expected to result in higher fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of 2018. Average carcass weights are also expected to be heavier. USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report on January 31, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2018. The pork production forecast for 2018 is raised. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 3 percent above 2016 which supports a higher first half production forecast. The report also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 3 percent in the first half of the year which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, supports higher second-half production. Forecast broiler production is raised for 2018 on favorable returns. Turkey production is reduced based on continued weak demand. The egg production forecast is raised slightly. Beef imports are increased for 2017 on increased shipments from Oceania. No change is made to exports. Pork exports for 2017 are raised reflecting the pace of trade to date but no change is made to pork imports. Broiler imports and exports are raised for 2017, reflecting recent trade data. For 2018, livestock, broiler, and egg trade forecasts remain unchanged from last month. Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2017 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2018, the cattle price is raised, reflecting early-year price strength. The first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast is raised, reflecting recent price strength and firm demand. First and second quarter broiler and egg price forecasts are raised as well on recent price strength and continued strong demand. Turkey price forecasts for 2018 are lowered on recent price movements and continued weakness in demand. The milk production estimate for 2017 is reduced on recent data. For 2018, the milk production estimate is reduced on slower anticipated growth in the dairy cow herd combined with continued slow growth in milk per cow. Fat basis imports for 2017 are reduced on slower butter imports, but exports are raised on solid global demand for U.S. butter and other dairy products. Skim-solids basis imports are reduced modestly while exports are raised on strong demand for skim milk powder and several other products. For 2018, the fat basis import forecast is reduced on slowing demand for butter products, while the export forecast is raised on expected robust foreign demand for U.S. fat-containing products. On a skim-solids basis, the 2018 import forecast is reduced on weak demand for U.S. milk protein concentrates. The 2018 skim-solids basis export forecast is raised reflecting stronger demand for a number of products. Dairy product prices for 2017 are adjusted for December data. For 2018, all dairy product prices are reduced on slowing domestic demand and global competition. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2018 are reduced on lower product prices. The all milk price is lowered to $15.80 to $16.60 per cwt for 2018. COTTON: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. cotton forecasts include slightly lower production and ending stocks. Production is reduced 177,000 bales due to small declines in regions outside the Delta. Ending stocks are reduced 100,000 bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. The forecast for the marketing year average price received by producers is raised 3 cents per pound, to a midpoint of 69 cents.
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Offsetting changes in foreign production and consumption characterize the global 2017/18 cotton forecasts this month. Global production is raised 1.0 million bales as a 1.4-millionbale increase for China is only partly offset by small decreases in India, the United States, and Australia. Global consumption is raised 1.2 million bales largely due to a 1.0-million-bale increase for China. World consumption is forecast to grow at a 5.2 percent annual rate in 2017/18, more than double its long-run level. Projected world ending stocks are changed slightly this month, down 200,000 bales from December, but at 87.8 million bales are still forecast marginally higher than the year before.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Seth D. Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SONNY PERDUE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
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INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
Wheat: William Chambers, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Jennifer Bond, ERS; Andrew Sowell, FAS; Pete Riley, FSA. Rice: William Chambers, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: wchambers @oce.usda.gov Nathan Childs, ERS; Rachel Trego, FAS; Sherrie Grimm, FSA. Feed Grains: Michael Jewison, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Tom Capehart, ERS; Yoonhee Macke, FAS; Thomas Gajnak, FSA. Oilseeds: Keith Menzie, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Mark Ash, ERS; Bill George, FAS; Susan Proper, FSA. Cotton: Stephen MacDonald, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Leslie Meyer, ERS; James Johnson, FAS; Erik Dohlman, FSA. Sugar: Stephen Haley, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Michael McConnell, ERS; Ron Lord, FAS; Barbara Fecso, FSA. Meat Animals: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Sherry Wise, AMS; Mildred Haley, ERS; Lindsay Kuberka, FAS; Dale Leuck, FSA. Poultry: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Larry Haller, AMS; Sean Ramos, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA. Dairy: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Carolyn Liebrand, AMS; Jerry Cessna, ERS; Paul Kiendl, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA.
In 2018, the WASDE report will be released on Feb 8, Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug 10, Sep 12, Oct 11, Nov 8, and Dec 11.
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T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S Page Highlights............................................................................................................. 1 Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees .................................................... 6 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................. 8 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................. 9 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................ 10 U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................. 11 U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class .................................................................... 11 U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ............................................................... 12 U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ....................................................... 13 U.S. Rice Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 14 U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ........................................................... 15 U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ................................................................................... 16 Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ........................................................................... 16 U.S. Cotton Supply & Use .................................................................................. 17 World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................ 18 World Coarse Grains Supply & Use.................................................................... 20 World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................. 22 World Rice Supply & Use ................................................................................... 24 World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................ 26 World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................ 28 World Soybean Meal Supply & Use .................................................................... 29 World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ....................................................................... 30 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production .......................................................... 31 U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products .......................................................... 31 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ............................................................................... 32 U.S. Egg Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 33 U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................. 33 U.S. Dairy Prices ............................................................................................... 34 Reliability Tables................................................................................................ 35 Related USDA Reports ...................................................................................... 38 Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................. 38 Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 8 World and U.S Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use 3/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
2468.53 2603.58
3061.44 3230.37
376.64 430.99
2434.65 2577.77
626.79 652.60
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
2562.59 2565.94
3218.33 3218.54
415.98 415.58
2576.95 2575.68
641.38 642.86
World Total Grains 4/
Wheat
Coarse Grains 5/
Rice, milled
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
735.31 750.44
953.26 992.12
172.84 183.36
711.58 739.40
241.67 252.72
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
755.21 757.01
1010.53 1009.72
182.15 180.85
742.12 741.70
268.42 268.02
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
1260.26 1366.06
1507.43 1618.55
163.46 201.63
1254.95 1356.77
252.48 261.77
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
1323.92 1324.22
1586.31 1586.00
188.51 188.91
1354.07 1352.23
232.24 233.77
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
472.96 487.08
600.75 619.71
40.34 46.01
468.11 481.60
132.63 138.11
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
483.47 484.71
621.48 622.82
45.32 45.82
480.76 481.75
140.73 141.08
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Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use 3/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
429.26 472.56
506.00 556.09
81.75 96.92
348.12 363.41
76.14 95.76
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
436.41 437.29
540.65 541.63
85.45 85.36
363.85 363.10
91.35 93.17
United States
Total Grains 4/
Wheat
Coarse Grains 5/
Rice, milled
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
56.12 62.83
79.66 92.60
21.17 28.72
31.94 31.75
26.55 32.13
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
47.37 47.37
83.59 83.72
26.54 26.54
30.92 30.26
26.13 26.92
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
367.01 402.61
417.89 454.15
57.18 64.50
312.60 327.48
48.11 62.17
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
383.37 384.26
449.16 450.00
55.65 55.65
329.28 329.03
64.23 65.33
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
6.13 7.12
8.45 9.34
3.40 3.70
3.58 4.17
1.48 1.46
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
5.66 5.66
7.90 7.91
3.27 3.18
3.65 3.81
0.98 0.93
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1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports). 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
2,039.27 2,131.02
2,555.44 2,674.28
294.90 334.07
2,086.53 2,214.36
550.65 556.84
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
2,126.18 2,128.65
2,677.68 2,676.91
330.53 330.23
2,213.10 2,212.58
550.03 549.69
Foreign 3/ Total Grains 4/
Wheat
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
679.19 687.61
873.60 899.52
151.67 154.65
679.64 707.65
215.12 220.59
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
707.84 709.64
926.95 926.00
155.61 154.31
711.20 711.44
242.28 241.10
Coarse Grains 5/ 2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
Rice, milled
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893.25 963.45
1,089.54 1,164.39
106.28 137.13
942.36 1,029.29
204.37 199.61
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
940.54 939.97
1,137.15 1,136.00
132.87 133.27
1,024.79 1,023.20
168.01 168.44
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
466.83 479.96
592.30 610.37
36.95 42.30
464.54 477.43
131.16 136.65
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
477.81 479.05
613.58 614.91
42.05 42.65
477.10 477.94
139.74 140.15
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1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. Bales
World
United States
Foreign 4/
Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use 3/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
96.15 106.56
207.30 201.91
35.13 37.24
112.26 114.77
95.35 87.64
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
119.96 120.97
207.61 208.60
38.46 38.38
119.59 120.83
88.00 87.79
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
12.89 17.17
16.57 20.98
9.15 14.92
3.45 3.25
3.80 2.75
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
21.44 21.26
24.20 24.02
14.80 14.80
3.35 3.35
5.80 5.70
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
83.26 89.39
190.73 180.93
25.98 22.33
108.81 111.52
91.55 84.89
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
98.52 99.70
183.41 184.58
23.66 23.58
116.24 117.48
82.20 82.09
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1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Output
Total Supply
Trade
Total Use 2/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
520.87 573.63
614.24 664.31
153.30 170.48
445.86 469.59
90.68 108.34
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
579.54 580.08
687.95 688.42
176.33 175.97
488.58 488.49
110.80 111.18
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
306.11 321.50
323.49 337.81
86.89 88.38
303.51 317.58
16.32 15.84
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
334.81 334.55
350.76 350.39
91.33 91.16
331.58 331.15
15.32 15.25
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
176.73 188.67
201.11 209.50
73.48 80.61
177.45 183.87
20.83 19.30
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
196.88 196.85
216.41 216.15
81.41 81.02
189.94 190.34
20.72 20.55
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Output
Total Supply
Trade
Total / Use 2
Ending Stoc ks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
115.88 126.93
123.76 135.30
53.96 60.28
55.05 56.24
6.87 9.60
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
132.16 131.31
143.31 142.40
61.81 60.04
57.69 57.96
13.90 14.57
World Oilseeds
Oilmeals
Vegetable Oils
United States Oilseeds
Oilmeals
Vegetable Oils
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
42.78 43.08
47.15 47.28
11.18 10.83
35.69 36.04
0.28 0.41
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2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
44.49 44.47
48.92 48.76
11.41 11.41
37.19 37.03
0.33 0.33
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
11.21 11.44
17.03 17.37
1.25 1.42
14.58 14.73
1.20 1.23
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filler
filler
2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
11.65 11.67
17.82 17.81
1.13 1.12
15.57 15.60
1.12 1.09
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
Output
Total Supply
Trade
Total Use 2/
Ending Stoc ks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
404.99 446.69
490.48 529.01
99.34 110.20
390.81 413.35
83.81 98.74
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
447.39 448.77
544.64 546.02
114.52 115.93
430.89 430.53
96.90 96.61
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
263.34 278.41
276.34 290.53
75.71 77.55
267.82 281.54
16.04 15.43
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
290.32 290.08
301.84 301.62
79.92 79.76
294.39 294.12
14.99 14.93
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
165.52 177.23
184.09 192.13
72.23 79.20
162.87 169.15
19.62 18.07
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2017/18 (Proj.) Dec 2017/18 (Proj.) Jan
185.23 185.18
198.59 198.34
80.28 79.90
174.38 174.74
19.59 19.46
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
Foreign 3/ Oilseeds
Oilmeals
Vegetable Oils
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
Area Planted Area Harvested
55.0 47.3
Yield per Harvested Acre
43.6
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Food Seed Feed and Residual Domestic, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
752 2,062 113 2,927 957 67 149 1,174 778 1,951 976 4.89
2016/17 Est.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Million Acres 50.1 46.0 43.9 37.6 Bushels 52.7 46.3 Million Bushels 976 1,181 2,309 1,741 118 150 3,402 3,071 949 950 61 66 156 120 1,167 1,136 1,055 975 2,222 2,111 1,181 960 3.89 4.50 - 4.70
46.0 37.6 46.3 1,181 1,741 155 3,076 950 62 100 1,112 975 2,087 989 4.50 - 4.70
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use Year beginning June 1
Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Soft Red Winter
White
Durum
Total
Million
Bushels
2016/17 (Est.)
Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 3/ Domestic Use Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks, Total
446 1,082 1,533 489 455 943 589
272 491 805 249 321 570 235
157 345 535 228 92 320 215
74 286 368 99 163 263 105
28 104 162 101 24 126 36
976 2,309 3,402 1,167 1,055 2,222 1,181
2017/18 (Proj.)
Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 3/ Domestic Use Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks, Total Ending Stocks, Total
589 750 1,346 457 405 862 484 470
235 385 695 272 245 517 178 167
215 292 527 206 90 296 231 230
105 258 370 94 215 309 61 65
36 55 138 83 20 103 35 28
1,181 1,741 3,076 1,112 975 2,087 989 960
Jan Dec
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
FEED GRAINS
Area Planted Area Harvested Yield per Harvested Acre Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Domestic, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks
103.2 93.0 3.94 46.9 366.7 3.7 417.4 135.2 176.9 312.1 57.2 369.3 48.1 2015/16
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Million Acres 106.6 101.2 96.5 90.9 Metric Tons 4.17 4.21 Million Metric Tons 48.1 62.2 402.3 383.1 3.3 3.4 453.6 448.7 144.4 145.5 182.5 183.4 327.0 328.8 64.5 55.6 391.5 384.5 62.1 64.2 2016/17 E st.
100.9 90.5 4.24 62.1 384.0 3.4 449.5 145.0 183.6 328.6 55.6 384.2 65.3
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
December
January
CORN Area Planted Area Harvested Yield per Harvested Acre Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ Ethanol & by-products 3/ Domestic, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/
88.0 80.8 168.4 1,731 13,602 68 15,401 5,114 6,648 5,224 11,763 1,901 13,664 1,737 3.61
Million Acres 94.0 90.4 86.7 83.1 Bushels 174.6 175.4 Million Bushels 1,737 2,295 15,148 14,578 57 50 16,942 16,922 5,467 5,575 6,889 6,985 5,439 5,525 12,356 12,560 2,293 1,925 14,649 14,485 2,293 2,437 3.36 2.85 - 3.55
90.2 82.7 176.6 2,293 14,604 50 16,947 5,550 6,995 5,525 12,545 1,925 14,470 2,477 2.95 - 3.55
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketingyear weighted average price received by farmers.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley, and Oats Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Dec
Jan
SORGHUM Million Bushels Filler
Area Planted (mil. acres) Area Harvested (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Total Domestic Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
8.5 7.9 76.0 18 597 5 620 107 137 244 340 583 37 3.31
6.7 6.2 77.9 37 480 2 519 130 115 245 241 485 33 2.79
5.7 5.0 70.4 34 356 2 391 60 50 110 260 370 21 2.75 - 3.45
5.6 5.0 72.1 33 364 2 399 65 50 115 260 375 24 2.85 - 3.45
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
December
January
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
3.6 3.2 69.1 79 218 19 315 44 158 202 11 213 102 5.52
3.1 2.6 77.9 102 200 10 312 39 162 201 4 205 106 4.96
2.5 2.0 72.6 106 142 15 263 35 162 197 5 202 61 4.10 - 4.90
2.5 2.0 72.6 106 142 15 263 35 162 197 5 202 61 4.15 - 4.85
BARLEY Filler
Area Planted (mil. acres) Area Harvested (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Total Domestic Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
December
January
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
3.1 1.3 70.2 54 90 86 229 94 77 170 2 172 57 2.12
2.8 1.0 66.0 57 65 90 212 82 76 158 3 162 50 2.06
2.6 0.8 61.7 50 49 100 200 90 78 168 2 170 30 2.30 - 2.70
2.6 0.8 61.7 50 49 100 200 90 78 168 2 170 30 2.35 - 2.65
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
OATS Filler
Area Planted (mil. acres) Area Harvested (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Total Domestic Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ Filler
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
TOTAL RICE
Area Planted Area Harvested
2.63 2.59
Filler
Yield per Harvested Acre
7,472
Beginning Stocks 2/ Production Imports Supply, Total Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports, Total 4/ Rough Milled (rough equiv.) Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Milling Yield (%) 5/ Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/
48.5 193.1 24.1 265.8 112.4 107.0 39.3 67.7 219.3 46.5 70.00 12.20
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Million Acres 3.15 2.49 3.10 2.39 Pounds 7,237 7,461 Million Hundredweight 46.5 46.0 224.1 178.4 23.5 24.5 294.1 248.9 131.4 115.0 116.7 103.0 42.5 36.0 74.2 67.0 248.0 218.0 46.0 30.9 70.00 70.00 10.40 12.30 - 13.30
2.46 2.37 7,507 46.0 178.2 24.9 249.2 120.0 100.0 34.0 66.0 220.0 29.2 70.00 12.10 - 13.10
Total
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
December
January
31.0 126.1 178.5 88.0 74.0 162.0 16.5 11.60 - 12.60
1.75 7,314 31.0 127.9 180.4 93.0 71.0 164.0 16.4 11.30 - 12.30
LONG-GRAIN RICE Harvested Acres (mil.) Yield (pounds/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 7/ Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports 8/ Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/ Filler
1.85 7,219 26.5 133.4 180.7 82.1 75.9 158.0 22.7 11.20
2.40 6,927 22.7 166.5 209.4 99.7 78.7 178.4 31.0 9.64
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
December
January
0.74 8,107 20.2 59.7 82.2 30.3 31.0 61.3 20.9 15.30 18.10 11.20
0.69 8,311 20.9 57.7 81.1 31.7 37.9 69.6 11.5 12.90 13.70 10.10
11.5 52.2 66.9 27.0 29.0 56.0 10.9 14.20 - 15.20 15.00 - 16.00 11.80 - 12.80
0.63 8,048 11.5 50.4 65.3 27.0 29.0 56.0 9.3 14.50 - 15.50 15.50 - 16.50 11.50 - 12.50
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN RICE Harvested Acres (mil.) Yield (pounds/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 7/ Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports 8/ Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 1/ 6/ 9/ California 10/ Other States 1/ Filler
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2015/16-2.9; 2016/17-2.9; 2017/18-2.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. 9/ The medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. For example, the average difference between the August WASDE SAFP forecast and the final price has averaged $1.65 per cwt from 2008/09-2013/14, with a high of $3.50 per cwt in 2008/09 and a low of $0.60 per cwt in 2009/10. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Filler
Filler
Dec
Jan
Filler
Filler
82.7 81.7
Million Acres 83.4 82.7
90.2 89.5
90.1 89.5
Yield per Harvested Acre
48.0
Bushels 52.0
49.5
49.1
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Crushings Exports Seed Residual Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
191 3,926 24 4,140 1,886 1,942 97 18 3,944 197 8.95
197 4,296 22 4,515 1,899 2,174 105 36 4,213 302 9.47
301 4,425 25 4,752 1,940 2,225 106 35 4,306 445 8.60 - 10.00
302 4,392 25 4,718 1,950 2,160 106 33 4,248 470 8.80 - 9.80
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
December
January
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Million Pounds 1,687 1,711 22,099 22,505 319 300 24,104 24,516 19,837 21,000 6,200 7,500 13,637 13,500 2,556 1,900 22,393 22,900 1,711 1,616 32.48 32.50 - 36.50
1,711 22,525 300 24,536 21,100 7,500 13,600 1,900 23,000 1,536 32.00 - 35.00
SOYBEANS Filler
Area Planted Area Harvested Filler
Million Bushels
Total
SOYBEAN OIL Filler
Beginning Stocks Production 4/ Imports Supply, Total Domestic Disappearance Biodiesel 3/ Food, Feed & other Industrial Exports Use, Total Ending stocks Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/
1,855 21,950 287 24,092 20,162 5,670 14,492 2,243 22,405 1,687 29.86
Total
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
1
2
December
January
3
4
Thousand Short Tons 264 401 44,733 46,099 349 300 45,347 46,800 33,345 34,300 11,601 12,200 44,946 46,500 401 300 316.88 295.00 - 335.00
401 46,099 300 46,800 34,300 12,200 46,500 300 295.00 - 335.00
SOYBEAN MEAL Filler
Beginning Stocks Production 4/ Imports Supply, Total Domestic Disappearance Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/
260 44,672 403 45,336 33,118 11,954 45,072 264 324.56
Total
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 1,906 million bushels for 2016/17 and 1,950 million bushels for 2017/18.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
Filler
Filler
Filler
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Filler
Filler
1,836 9,245 5,359 3,886 2,036 0 1,690 160 3,326 1,798 250 1,278 1,268 14,407
1,851 9,312 5,257 4,055 2,075 0 1,820 160 3,316 1,788 250 1,278 1,268 14,479
50 12,555 12,400 155 0 12,605 1,802 14.3
100 12,555 12,400 155 0 12,655 1,824 14.4
Beginning Stocks Production 2/ Beet Sugar Cane Sugar Florida Hawaii Louisiana Texas Imports TRQ 3/ Other Program 4/ Other 5/ Mexico Total Supply
1,815 8,989 5,119 3,870 2,173 152 1,428 116 3,341 1,620 396 1,325 1,309 14,145
1,000 Short Tons,Raw Value 2,054 8,969 5,103 3,866 2,055 43 1,628 140 3,244 1,611 419 1,213 1,201 14,267
Exports Deliveries Food 6/ Other 7/ Miscellaneous Total Use Ending Stocks Stocks to Use Ratio
74 12,051 11,881 170 -33 12,091 2,054 17.0
95 12,283 12,127 156 38 12,416 1,851 14.9
Total
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Historical data are from FSA "Sweetener Market Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2016/17 and 2017/18 are based on Crop Production and processor projections where appropriate. 3/ For 2017/18, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall (183). For 2016/17, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall is undefined because of 13th month rollover into 2017/18. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ For 2015/16, other high-tier (16) and other (0). For 2016/17, other high-tier (12) and other (0). For 2017/18, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/For 2014/15, combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use and SMD miscellaneous uses. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol, feed, and ethanol.
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/ Beginning Stocks
Production
Sugar
Imports
Domestic 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
1,000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
2016/17 Est. 2016/17 Est.
Dec Jan
1,037 1,037
5,957 5,957
93 93
4,851 4,851
1,234 1,234
1,002 1,002
2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.
Dec Jan
1,002 1,002
6,100 6,100
95 135
4,972 4,972
1,217 1,257
1,008 1,008
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): Estimated Oct-Sep 2016/17 = 1,531, projected 2017/18 = 1,531; Oct - Nov 2016/17 = 229, Oct - Oct 2017/18 = 247. Footnote source for estimate: Comite Nacional para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for consumption, Mexico's products export program (IMMEX), and Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments. IMMEX: 2016/17 (397 est), 2017/18 (390 proj). Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments: 2015/16 (-10), 2016/17 (-61), 2017/18 (0).
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 17 U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
Filler
Area Planted Harvested
2015/16
2016/17 Est.
Filler
Filler
8.58 8.07
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Filler
Filler
Million Acres 10.07 12.62 9.51 11.41
12.61 11.35
Filler
Yield per Harvested Acre
766
Pounds 867
902
899
2.75 21.44 0.01 24.20 3.35 14.80 18.15 0.25 5.80 63.00 - 69.00
2.75 21.26 0.01 24.02 3.35 14.80 18.15 0.17 5.70 67.00 - 71.00
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Domestic Use Exports, Total Use, Total Unaccounted 2/ Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price 3/
3.65 12.89 0.03 16.57 3.45 9.15 12.60 0.17 3.80 61.2
3.80 17.17 0.01 20.98 3.25 14.92 18.17 0.06 2.75 68.0
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada European Union 5/ Major Importers 6/ Brazil China Sel. Mideast 7/ N. Africa 8/ Pakistan Southeast Asia 9/ Selected Other India FSU-12 Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine
Beginning Stocks 217.95 20.48 197.48 29.27 4.80 4.67 7.10 12.70 113.34 0.87 76.11 13.65 13.22 3.71 3.85
Production 735.31 56.12 679.19 221.65 11.30 22.28 27.59 160.48 205.43 5.54 130.19 19.91 19.98 25.10 0.00
Imports 170.10 3.07 167.03 7.60 0.01 0.15 0.52 6.92 92.35 6.75 3.48 19.19 27.80 0.02 24.60
Domestic Feed 136.50 4.07 132.44 65.66 0.20 3.70 2.76 59.00 27.94 0.50 10.50 4.85 2.28 0.80 8.02
Domestic Total 2/ 711.58 31.94 679.64 150.60 5.70 7.13 7.92 129.85 264.64 11.10 112.00 37.77 43.67 24.40 22.30
Exports 172.84 21.17 151.67 82.52 9.60 16.12 22.11 34.69 6.42 1.06 0.73 0.55 0.70 0.60 0.97
Ending Stocks 241.67 26.55 215.12 25.41 0.82 3.85 5.18 15.56 140.06 1.00 97.04 14.43 16.63 3.83 5.19
17.22 86.53 0.47 4.20 88.55 1.13 14.54 20.66 117.96 7.40 26.74 77.78 51.48 16.77 6.29 61.04 0.82 14.00 37.00 25.54 5.61 3.28 13.75 0.07 2.10 6.90 7.60 2.60 5.68 27.27 0.03 5.10 12.20 17.43 3.35 Beginning Domestic Domestic Ending 2016/17 Est. Stocks Production Imports Feed Total 2/ Exports Stocks World 3/ 241.67 750.44 179.20 147.10 739.40 183.36 252.72 United States 26.55 62.83 3.22 4.26 31.75 28.72 32.13 Total Foreign 215.12 687.61 175.98 142.84 707.65 154.65 220.59 Major Exporters 4/ 25.41 225.74 5.94 65.42 150.95 83.94 22.20 Argentina 0.82 18.40 0.01 0.10 5.20 13.80 0.22 Australia 3.85 30.36 0.14 3.90 7.35 22.64 4.37 Canada 5.18 31.73 0.51 5.42 10.40 20.18 6.84 European Union 5/ 15.56 145.25 5.29 56.00 128.00 27.32 10.77 Major Importers 6/ 140.06 200.04 96.42 36.62 278.75 5.57 152.20 Brazil 1.00 6.73 7.35 0.80 12.20 0.70 2.18 China 97.04 128.85 4.41 16.50 118.50 0.75 111.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ 14.43 20.14 18.11 4.97 39.12 0.53 13.03 N. Africa 8/ 16.63 14.08 28.36 2.28 44.57 0.58 13.92 Pakistan 3.83 25.60 0.00 0.80 24.50 0.60 4.33 Southeast Asia 9/ 5.19 0.00 26.91 9.89 25.47 1.02 5.61 Selected Other India 14.54 87.00 5.90 4.70 97.12 0.52 9.80 FSU-12 16.77 130.48 7.36 28.00 79.07 54.42 21.11 Russia 5.61 72.53 0.50 17.00 40.00 27.81 10.83 Kazakhstan 2.60 14.99 0.08 2.10 6.90 7.40 3.36 Ukraine 3.35 26.80 0.04 3.60 10.30 18.11 1.78 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks Production
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada European Union 5/ Major Importers 6/ Brazil China Sel. Mideast 7/ N. Africa 8/ Pakistan Southeast Asia 9/ Selected Other India
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
255.33 252.72 32.13 32.13 223.20 220.59 25.03 22.20 0.32 0.22 7.10 4.37 6.84 6.84 10.77 10.77 152.08 152.20 2.18 2.18 111.05 111.05 13.03 13.03 13.92 13.92 4.33 4.33 5.61 5.61
755.21 757.01 47.37 47.37 707.84 709.64 221.50 220.60 17.50 17.50 21.50 21.50 30.00 30.00 152.50 151.60 202.00 202.80 4.25 4.25 130.00 130.00 19.42 19.42 18.15 18.15 25.70 26.50 0.00 0.00
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
180.60 180.19 4.08 4.22 176.52 175.97 6.66 6.66 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.50 0.50 6.00 6.00 95.78 95.48 8.00 8.00 3.50 4.00 18.70 18.40 28.35 27.85 0.03 0.03 26.00 26.00
142.67 143.32 3.27 2.72 139.41 140.60 64.10 64.00 0.10 0.10 3.50 3.40 3.50 3.50 57.00 57.00 30.48 30.78 0.50 0.50 13.00 13.00 5.22 5.31 2.18 2.18 0.80 1.00 7.79 7.79
742.12 741.70 30.92 30.26 711.20 711.44 150.05 149.75 5.60 5.50 7.00 6.80 8.70 8.70 128.75 128.75 276.89 277.11 12.10 12.10 116.00 116.00 40.47 40.50 45.08 45.08 24.80 25.00 24.34 24.34
182.15 180.85 26.54 26.54 155.61 154.31 79.70 76.90 11.70 11.90 17.50 16.00 22.00 22.00 28.50 27.00 6.46 6.46 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.69 0.69 0.60 0.60 1.07 1.07
268.42 268.02 26.13 26.92 242.28 241.10 23.44 22.81 0.53 0.33 4.25 3.22 6.64 6.64 12.02 12.62 166.51 166.90 1.53 1.53 127.75 128.25 9.84 9.51 14.66 14.16 4.66 5.26 6.20 6.20
Dec 9.80 98.38 3.00 5.00 100.00 0.50 10.68 Jan 9.80 98.38 2.50 5.00 100.00 0.50 10.18 FSU-12 Dec 21.11 139.27 7.96 31.50 82.99 59.04 26.32 Jan 21.11 141.27 7.96 32.50 83.99 60.54 25.82 Russia Dec 10.83 83.00 0.50 20.50 44.00 33.50 16.83 Jan 10.83 85.00 0.50 21.50 45.00 35.00 16.33 Kazakhstan Dec 3.36 14.00 0.05 2.10 6.90 7.50 3.01 Jan 3.36 14.00 0.05 2.10 6.90 7.50 3.01 Ukraine Dec 1.78 26.50 0.03 3.40 9.80 17.00 1.51 Jan 1.78 26.50 0.03 3.40 9.80 17.00 1.51 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Major Importers 5/ European Union 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected Other China FSU-12 Russia Ukraine
2016/17 Est. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Major Importers 5/ European Union 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected Other China FSU-12 Russia Ukraine
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
247.17 46.95 200.22 20.12 4.27 1.53 8.24 3.33 49.13 18.89 1.77 4.83 14.49 3.36 3.66 1.89
1,260.26 367.01 893.25 153.93 38.44 12.54 68.65 25.62 246.12 152.67 0.18 32.38 32.77 0.36 27.51 0.19
181.15 3.94 177.22 7.90 0.00 0.00 3.97 1.55 123.97 14.26 17.07 14.95 32.75 14.79 15.17 10.19
767.15 135.37 631.78 83.39 9.36 3.96 50.47 13.81 271.75 117.08 13.29 26.72 55.96 13.60 33.06 7.83
1,254.95 312.60 942.36 112.69 14.32 5.64 59.82 21.25 353.48 157.25 17.26 44.72 64.31 14.11 41.07 10.32
163.46 57.18 106.28 51.63 25.22 6.94 14.03 4.61 15.71 13.11 0.00 1.56 0.11 0.00 0.93 0.00
252.48 48.11 204.37 17.63 3.18 1.50 7.01 4.64 50.03 15.45 1.76 5.89 15.59 4.41 4.33 1.95
101.92 7.92 2.82 3.29
231.40 82.55 37.43 33.39
17.50 0.54 0.13 0.05
166.44 38.26 20.32 8.74
238.74 53.43 29.72 12.37
0.03 31.33 9.00 21.19
112.05 6.25 1.66 3.17
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
252.48 48.11 204.37 17.63 3.18 1.50 7.01 4.64 50.03 15.45 1.76 5.89 15.59 4.41 4.33 1.95
1,366.06 402.61 963.45 210.59 48.57 16.62 101.58 25.79 242.32 152.59 0.17 33.32 26.21 0.36 29.40 0.20
172.70 3.43 169.27 2.65 0.00 0.00 1.49 0.94 120.94 15.83 17.00 15.24 34.29 11.52 13.50 9.29
799.66 144.60 655.06 89.84 11.07 4.29 53.45 13.80 276.35 120.07 13.25 28.00 55.51 13.22 34.96 7.24
1,356.77 327.48 1,029.29 121.99 16.34 6.16 64.03 21.65 358.56 160.69 17.25 46.90 63.33 13.73 42.77 9.59
201.63 64.50 137.13 80.97 28.46 10.17 35.01 4.81 11.04 8.07 0.00 1.54 0.16 0.00 1.27 0.00
261.77 62.17 199.61 27.91 6.95 1.78 11.04 4.91 43.69 15.11 1.69 6.01 12.60 2.56 3.18 1.85
112.05 6.25 1.66 3.17
227.44 92.19 40.77 39.26
16.06 0.76 0.28 0.04
174.28 40.55 22.48 9.06
252.94 55.91 32.13 12.52
0.11 36.58 8.56 26.90
102.49 6.70 2.02 3.04
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks Production
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Major Importers 5/ European Union 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected Other China FSU-12 Russia Ukraine
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
262.40 261.77 62.21 62.17 200.19 199.61 27.10 27.91 6.91 6.95 2.01 1.78 10.04 11.04 4.91 4.91 45.36 43.69 15.12 15.11 1.69 1.69 6.01 6.01 12.61 12.60 4.26 2.56 3.14 3.18 1.85 1.85
1,323.92 1,324.22 383.37 384.26 940.54 939.97 197.45 197.55 49.00 49.10 11.50 11.50 97.79 97.79 26.21 26.21 243.25 242.68 150.80 150.80 0.19 0.19 31.63 31.63 29.99 29.99 0.36 0.36 30.01 29.44 0.20 0.20
182.85 183.55 3.58 3.58 179.28 179.98 2.23 2.23 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.85 1.06 1.06 130.69 131.19 16.71 16.71 16.72 16.72 16.90 16.90 38.87 38.77 13.01 13.01 14.12 14.72 9.77 9.77
817.12 815.32 145.57 145.07 671.54 670.25 91.18 90.87 11.72 11.72 3.64 3.34 54.44 54.44 15.49 15.49 284.91 283.81 119.48 119.48 13.07 13.07 29.22 29.22 60.91 60.31 14.05 13.55 36.16 36.16 7.54 7.54
1,354.07 1,352.23 329.28 329.03 1,024.79 1,023.20 123.43 123.12 17.38 17.38 5.51 5.21 64.89 64.89 23.25 23.25 367.33 366.23 160.10 160.10 17.06 17.06 48.19 48.19 68.91 68.31 14.61 14.11 43.76 43.76 10.01 10.01
188.51 188.91 55.65 55.65 132.87 133.27 78.61 78.81 31.21 31.31 6.93 7.03 34.02 34.02 4.75 4.75 10.78 10.88 8.51 8.51 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.30 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.83 0.00 0.00
232.24 233.77 64.23 65.33 168.01 168.44 24.75 25.77 7.33 7.37 1.07 1.05 9.77 10.77 4.18 4.18 41.18 40.44 14.01 14.01 1.53 1.53 5.05 5.05 12.31 12.81 3.02 1.82 2.77 2.75 1.82 1.82
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
102.49 102.49 6.70 6.70 2.02 2.02 3.04 3.04
223.93 223.93 89.85 89.54 42.30 42.00 34.99 34.99
16.00 16.10 0.72 0.72 0.11 0.11 0.03 0.03
178.85 178.95 40.38 40.30 22.95 23.07 7.24 7.04
261.38 261.48 55.52 55.44 32.60 32.72 10.51 10.31
0.08 0.08 36.27 36.37 9.86 9.66 25.41 25.61
80.97 80.96 5.48 5.16 1.97 1.75 2.15 2.15
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Brazil South Africa Major Importers 5/ Egypt European Union 6/ Japan Mexico Southeast Asia 7/ South Korea Selected Other Canada China FSU-12 Ukraine
2016/17 Est. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Brazil South Africa Major Importers 5/ Egypt European Union 6/ Japan Mexico Southeast Asia 7/ South Korea Selected Other Canada China FSU-12 Ukraine
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
209.74 43.97 165.77 13.19 2.90 7.84 2.45 23.17 2.36 9.63 1.35 4.09 3.65 1.86
973.45 345.51 627.95 104.71 29.50 67.00 8.21 118.33 6.00 58.75 0.00 25.97 27.46 0.08
139.25 1.72 137.54 5.67 0.00 3.42 2.24 81.66 8.72 13.79 15.20 14.01 15.15 10.12
601.78 129.91 471.87 60.70 6.00 49.00 5.70 144.80 12.45 55.50 11.60 20.30 33.00 7.80
968.23 298.79 669.45 77.77 9.30 57.50 10.97 196.29 14.85 73.50 15.20 37.30 41.00 10.12
119.74 48.29 71.45 36.48 21.64 14.00 0.84 4.44 0.01 1.95 0.00 1.56 0.93 0.00
1.40 100.47 3.16 1.52
13.56 224.63 39.87 23.33
1.37 3.17 0.38 0.03
7.10 153.50 16.62 5.50
12.38 217.50 19.33 6.90
1.74 0.00 21.49 16.60
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Domestic Feed
Imports
Domestic / Total 2
Ending Stocks 214.96 44.12 170.84 9.32 1.46 6.77 1.10 22.42 2.22 6.72 1.35 5.21 4.33 1.94 0.00 2.21 110.77 2.59 1.39
Ending Stoc ks
Exports
214.96 44.12 170.84 9.32 1.46 6.77 1.10 22.42 2.22 6.72 1.35 5.21 4.33 1.94
1,075.99 384.78 691.21 156.98 41.00 98.50 17.48 124.52 6.00 61.45 0.00 27.57 29.35 0.08
135.62 1.45 134.17 0.85 0.00 0.80 0.05 80.62 8.77 15.24 15.17 14.57 13.48 9.23
631.93 138.87 493.07 65.63 7.50 51.00 7.13 147.96 12.70 55.00 11.60 22.50 34.90 7.21
1,062.20 313.86 748.35 84.83 11.20 60.50 13.13 200.71 15.10 73.70 15.20 40.40 42.70 9.41
163.10 58.24 104.86 63.00 25.50 35.00 2.50 4.99 0.01 2.17 0.00 1.54 1.27 0.00
2.21 110.77 2.59 1.39
13.19 219.55 47.30 28.00
0.85 2.46 0.35 0.03
7.10 162.00 17.20 5.10
12.70 232.00 19.98 6.50
1.52 0.08 27.15 21.33
228.75 58.25 170.50 19.33 5.76 10.57 3.00 21.86 1.89 7.54 1.32 5.41 3.18 1.83 0.00 2.04 100.71 3.11 1.58
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks Production
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Brazil South Africa Major Importers 5/ Egypt European Union 6/ Japan Mexico Southeast Asia 7/ South Korea Selected Other Canada China FSU-12 Ukraine
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
227.34 228.75 58.30 58.25 169.04 170.50 18.33 19.33 5.76 5.76 9.57 10.57 3.00 3.00 21.82 21.86 1.89 1.89 7.55 7.54 1.32 1.32 5.41 5.41 3.14 3.18 1.83 1.83
1,044.75 1,044.56 370.29 370.96 674.47 673.60 149.50 149.50 42.00 42.00 95.00 95.00 12.50 12.50 122.41 121.84 6.00 6.00 60.09 60.09 0.00 0.00 26.20 26.20 29.96 29.39 0.08 0.08
146.48 146.08 1.27 1.27 145.21 144.81 0.41 0.41 0.01 0.01 0.30 0.30 0.10 0.10 85.80 86.40 10.00 10.00 16.00 16.00 15.00 15.00 16.50 16.50 14.10 14.70 9.70 9.70
652.40 650.57 141.61 140.98 510.79 509.59 66.30 66.30 8.50 8.50 52.00 52.00 5.80 5.80 153.25 153.25 13.40 13.40 56.00 56.00 11.50 11.50 24.30 24.30 36.10 36.10 7.50 7.50
1,068.01 1,066.73 319.04 318.66 748.97 748.07 85.70 85.70 12.50 12.50 61.50 61.50 11.70 11.70 206.20 206.20 15.90 15.90 74.80 74.80 15.10 15.10 42.30 42.30 43.70 43.70 9.80 9.80
151.61 151.51 48.90 48.90 102.72 102.62 64.70 64.70 29.00 29.00 34.00 34.00 1.70 1.70 4.03 4.13 0.01 0.01 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.30 0.72 0.82 0.00 0.00
204.08 206.57 61.92 62.93 142.16 143.65 17.83 18.83 6.27 6.27 9.37 10.37 2.20 2.20 19.80 19.77 1.98 1.98 6.84 6.83 1.22 1.22 4.51 4.51 2.77 2.75 1.81 1.81
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
2.04 2.04 100.72 100.71 3.11 3.11 1.58 1.58
14.10 14.10 215.89 215.89 43.25 42.75 25.00 25.00
1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 0.45 0.45 0.03 0.03
8.40 8.40 166.00 166.00 15.98 15.68 3.80 3.80
14.00 14.00 240.00 240.00 18.66 18.36 5.10 5.10
1.30 1.30 0.05 0.05 25.76 25.56 20.50 20.50
1.84 1.84 79.56 79.55 2.38 2.38 1.01 1.01
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major Importers 5/ Brazil European Union 6/ Indonesia Nigeria Philippines Sel. Mideast 7/ Selected Other Burma C. Amer & Carib 8/ China Egypt Japan Mexico South Korea
2016/17 Est. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major Importers 5/ Brazil European Union 6/ Indonesia Nigeria Philippines Sel. Mideast 7/ Selected Other Burma C. Amer & Carib 8/ China Egypt Japan Mexico South Korea
Beginning Stocks 127.78 1.55 126.23 31.54 17.80 1.21 11.27 1.26 11.80 0.64 1.15 4.11 1.77 2.41 1.23
Production
Imports
Exports
38.34 0.77 37.57 0.61 0.00 0.01 0.30 0.30 12.24 0.90 1.80 1.00 2.10 1.60 3.25
Total /2 Domestic 468.11 3.58 464.54 127.97 93.57 2.80 9.10 22.50 76.66 7.90 3.55 37.80 6.00 12.90 5.58
472.96 6.13 466.83 154.59 104.41 6.80 15.80 27.58 63.28 7.21 2.05 36.20 3.53 11.00 1.89
0.75 0.44 69.00 0.92 2.82 0.17 1.41
12.16 1.49 145.77 4.00 7.67 0.16 4.33
0.03 1.91 4.80 0.10 0.71 0.69 0.31
10.40 3.31 140.80 3.90 8.60 0.89 4.21
1.30 0.04 0.27 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.00
40.34 3.40 36.95 29.40 10.24 4.20 9.87 5.09 0.84 0.55 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Total /2 Domestic
Exports
132.63 1.48 131.16 29.38 18.40 1.02 8.40 1.56 9.82 0.31 1.18 3.51 1.40 2.11 0.80
487.08 7.12 479.96 163.60 110.15 6.85 19.20 27.40 66.23 8.38 2.07 37.15 3.65 11.69 1.96
41.31 0.75 40.56 0.76 0.00 0.01 0.25 0.50 12.13 0.70 1.83 0.30 2.50 1.10 4.05
481.60 4.17 477.43 133.73 96.78 3.10 11.75 22.10 77.27 8.10 3.65 37.50 6.20 12.90 5.78
46.01 3.70 42.30 32.47 11.22 3.60 11.25 6.40 1.02 0.65 0.32 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.24 0.50 78.50 0.92 2.55 0.13 1.83
12.65 1.58 144.95 4.80 7.78 0.18 4.20
0.01 1.83 5.30 0.15 0.69 0.87 0.40
10.20 3.41 141.45 4.30 8.50 0.92 4.73
3.10 0.03 0.81 0.10 0.06 0.09 0.00
Ending Stocks 132.63 1.48 131.16 29.38 18.40 1.02 8.40 1.56 9.82 0.31 1.18 3.51 1.40 2.11 0.80 0.00 1.24 0.50 78.50 0.92 2.55 0.13 1.83
Ending Stoc ks
138.11 1.46 136.65 27.54 20.55 1.18 4.85 0.96 9.89 0.64 1.12 3.44 1.35 2.00 1.03 0.00 0.60 0.46 86.50 1.47 2.46 0.17 1.70
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total /2 Domestic
Exports
Ending Stocks
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
138.01 138.11 1.46 1.46 136.55 136.65 27.69 27.54 20.55 20.55 1.28 1.18 4.85 4.85 1.01 0.96 9.89 9.89 0.64 0.64 1.12 1.12 3.44 3.44 1.35 1.35 2.00 2.00 1.03 1.03
483.47 484.71 5.66 5.66 477.81 479.05 163.25 163.55 107.50 107.50 6.90 7.20 20.40 20.40 28.45 28.45 65.15 65.92 7.82 7.82 2.09 2.09 37.00 37.00 3.65 3.65 11.20 11.97 1.96 1.96
43.85 44.57 0.78 0.79 43.07 43.78 0.55 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.40 12.52 12.42 0.63 0.63 1.90 1.90 0.30 0.30 2.30 2.60 1.70 1.30 3.85 3.85
480.76 481.75 3.65 3.81 477.10 477.94 134.80 134.85 98.00 97.75 3.20 3.30 11.50 11.50 22.10 22.30 77.30 77.50 7.95 7.95 3.75 3.75 37.30 37.30 6.20 6.40 12.90 12.90 5.95 5.95
45.32 45.82 3.27 3.18 42.05 42.65 32.10 32.50 11.60 12.00 3.80 3.80 10.20 10.20 6.50 6.50 0.93 0.93 0.60 0.60 0.28 0.28 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
140.73 141.08 0.98 0.93 139.74 140.15 24.59 24.39 18.45 18.30 1.18 1.28 3.80 3.80 1.16 1.01 9.33 9.80 0.54 0.54 1.08 1.08 3.42 3.42 1.11 1.21 2.00 2.37 0.88 0.88
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
0.60 0.60 0.49 0.46 86.50 86.50 1.47 1.47 2.46 2.46 0.17 0.17 1.70 1.70
12.95 12.95 1.65 1.62 146.00 146.00 4.30 4.30 7.60 7.60 0.19 0.19 3.97 3.97
0.01 0.01 1.87 1.90 5.25 5.25 0.05 0.05 0.69 0.69 0.85 0.85 0.41 0.41
10.20 10.20 3.55 3.53 142.15 142.45 4.40 4.40 8.45 8.45 0.92 0.92 4.80 4.80
3.00 3.00 0.03 0.03 1.10 1.30 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00
0.36 0.36 0.44 0.42 94.50 94.00 1.32 1.32 2.24 2.24 0.20 0.20 1.28 1.28
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major Importers 5/ Brazil European Union 6/ Indonesia Nigeria Philippines Sel. Mideast 7/ Selected Other Burma C. Amer & Carib 8/ China Egypt Japan Mexico South Korea
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-Pound Bales)
2015/16 World United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Central Asia 5/ Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ S. Hemis 7/ Australia Brazil India Major Importers 8/ Mexico China European Union 9/ Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam
2016/17 Est. World United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Central Asia 5/ Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ S. Hemis 7/ Australia Brazil India Major Importers 8/ Mexico China European Union 9/ Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Exports
Loss /2
Ending Stocks
111.15 3.65 107.50 29.72 3.01 2.15 10.80 1.82 7.53 13.49 75.89 0.69 66.92 0.34 1.60 2.89 0.60 0.22 1.33 0.68
96.15 12.89 83.26 46.56 5.97 4.20 9.98 2.85 5.90 25.90 34.00 0.94 22.00 1.28 2.65 7.00 0.01 3/ 0.12 3/
35.42 0.03 35.39 1.77 3/ 3/ 0.25 3/ 0.09 1.07 31.30 0.98 4.41 0.80 4.22 3.30 2.94 1.28 6.40 4.50
112.26 3.45 108.81 32.48 2.63 0.13 4.22 0.04 3.10 24.75 72.20 1.85 35.00 0.81 6.70 10.30 3.00 1.27 6.30 4.40
35.13 9.15 25.98 22.81 4.26 4.87 7.67 2.83 4.31 5.76 2.07 0.13 0.13 1.31 0.23 0.25 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.02 0.17 -0.19 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00
95.35 3.80 91.55 23.05 2.09 1.34 9.43 1.96 6.26 9.94 66.83 0.61 58.20 0.30 1.53 2.62 0.53 0.20 1.54 0.78
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Exports
Loss /2
Ending Stoc ks
95.35 3.80 91.55 23.05 2.09 1.34 9.43 1.96 6.26 9.94 66.83 0.61 58.20 0.30 1.53 2.62 0.53 0.20 1.54 0.78
106.56 17.17 89.39 50.75 5.99 5.09 12.31 4.05 7.00 27.00 35.86 0.76 22.75 1.31 3.20 7.70 0.01 3/ 0.13 3/
37.62 0.01 37.61 3.63 3/ 3/ 0.37 3/ 0.19 2.74 31.78 1.00 5.03 0.70 3.68 2.40 3.39 1.23 6.70 5.50
114.77 3.25 111.52 31.97 2.89 0.13 4.29 0.04 3.20 24.00 75.57 1.75 37.50 0.72 6.50 10.30 3.30 1.20 6.70 5.40
37.24 14.92 22.33 19.20 2.79 4.52 7.07 3.73 2.79 4.55 2.04 0.15 0.06 1.33 0.33 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.12 0.06 -0.18 -0.27 0.00 0.01 -0.30 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00
87.64 2.75 84.89 26.54 2.39 1.77 11.05 2.39 7.61 11.13 56.78 0.44 48.42 0.27 1.58 2.27 0.62 0.20 1.66 0.88
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-Pound Bales) Beginning Production Stocks
2017/18 Proj. World United States Total Foreign
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
87.65 87.64 2.75 2.75 84.90 84.89
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
26.56 26.54 2.39 2.39 1.78 1.77 11.05 11.05 2.39 2.39 7.61 7.61 11.13 11.13
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
56.78 56.78 0.44 0.44 48.42 48.42 0.27 0.27 1.58 1.58 2.27 2.27 0.62 0.62 0.20 0.20 1.66 1.66 0.88 0.88
filler
Major Exporters 4/ Central Asia 5/ Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ S. Hemis 7/ Australia Brazil India
filler
Major Importers 8/ Mexico China European Union 9/ Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam
119.96 120.97 21.44 21.26 98.52 99.70 filler
55.35 55.11 6.30 6.32 5.10 5.14 14.00 13.90 4.70 4.60 7.80 7.80 29.50 29.30 filler
40.35 41.79 1.50 1.54 25.00 26.40 1.52 1.52 4.00 4.00 8.20 8.20 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 0.13 0.13 3/ 3/
Imports
Domestic Use
Exports
Loss /2
Ending Stocks
38.48 38.37 0.01 0.01 38.47 38.36
119.59 120.83 3.35 3.35 116.24 117.48
38.46 38.38 14.80 14.80 23.66 23.58
0.06 -0.02 0.25 0.17 -0.20 -0.20
88.00 87.79 5.80 5.70 82.20 82.09
filler
2.40 2.40 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 0.30 0.30 3/ 3/ 0.13 0.13 1.60 1.60 filler
33.64 33.52 0.80 0.83 5.30 5.00 0.71 0.71 3.50 3.50 2.70 2.70 3.45 3.50 1.25 1.25 7.25 7.25 6.50 6.60
filler
33.22 33.20 3.22 3.23 0.13 0.13 4.48 4.45 0.04 0.04 3.40 3.40 24.75 24.75 filler
78.99 80.25 1.80 1.85 39.00 40.00 0.74 0.74 7.00 7.00 10.40 10.40 3.40 3.45 1.20 1.20 7.20 7.20 6.10 6.25
filler
20.30 20.21 2.49 2.50 4.46 4.36 8.78 8.78 4.30 4.30 4.00 4.10 4.30 4.30 filler
2.35 2.37 0.28 0.30 0.05 0.05 1.41 1.41 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
filler
-0.29 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.30 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.00 filler
0.09 0.09 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
filler
31.07 30.93 2.98 2.98 2.30 2.42 12.38 12.31 2.91 2.81 8.28 8.18 13.18 12.98 filler
49.35 49.39 0.64 0.63 39.67 39.77 0.36 0.36 1.78 1.78 2.44 2.44 0.67 0.67 0.23 0.23 1.82 1.82 1.29 1.24
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Production Stocks
2015/16 World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil Paraguay Major Importers 4/ China European Union Japan Mexico
77.73 5.19 72.55 50.72 31.70 18.93 0.07 18.85 17.01 0.84 0.21 0.11
2016/17 Est. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil Paraguay Major Importers 4/ China European Union Japan Mexico
313.77 106.86 206.91 164.73 56.80 96.50 9.22 15.48 11.79 2.32 0.24 0.34
Imports
Domestic Crush
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stocks
133.33 0.64 132.69 1.12 0.68 0.41 0.01 113.50 83.23 15.12 3.19 4.13
275.31 51.34 223.97 86.89 43.27 39.75 3.80 106.83 81.50 14.95 2.28 4.40
314.25 54.47 259.78 94.75 47.55 43.25 3.86 127.77 95.00 16.58 3.38 4.43
132.55 52.86 79.69 71.88 9.92 54.38 5.40 0.32 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.00
78.02 5.35 72.67 49.94 31.70 18.20 0.03 19.73 16.91 1.56 0.26 0.15
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Crush
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
78.02 5.35 72.67 49.94 31.70 18.20 0.03 19.73 16.91 1.56 0.26 0.15
351.32 116.92 234.40 185.78 57.80 114.10 10.67 16.80 12.90 2.38 0.24 0.51
144.22 0.61 143.61 1.96 1.67 0.25 0.01 122.48 93.50 13.38 3.18 4.13
288.31 51.68 236.63 88.05 43.30 40.90 3.65 113.21 88.00 14.40 2.39 4.60
329.81 55.51 274.29 96.21 47.73 44.55 3.72 135.89 102.80 16.04 3.45 4.64
147.27 59.16 88.11 79.23 7.03 63.14 6.17 0.39 0.11 0.22 0.00 0.00
96.49 8.21 88.28 62.23 36.42 24.86 0.82 22.73 20.39 1.06 0.21 0.15
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Crush
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
96.62 96.49 8.20 8.21 88.42 88.28 62.23 62.23 36.42 36.42 24.86 24.86 0.82 0.82 22.79 22.73 20.39 20.39 1.06 1.06 0.21 0.21 0.15 0.15
348.47 348.57 120.44 119.52 228.03 229.05 176.92 177.92 57.00 56.00 108.00 110.00 9.40 9.40 18.18 18.20 14.20 14.20 2.48 2.50 0.26 0.26 0.48 0.48
150.41 150.17 0.68 0.68 149.73 149.49 1.93 1.93 1.70 1.70 0.20 0.20 0.01 0.01 127.25 127.25 97.00 97.00 14.00 14.00 3.30 3.30 4.30 4.30
301.57 301.45 52.80 53.07 248.77 248.38 90.74 90.74 44.84 44.84 42.00 42.00 3.70 3.70 120.68 120.68 95.00 95.00 14.50 14.50 2.35 2.35 4.72 4.72
344.72 344.47 56.64 56.83 288.08 287.64 99.15 99.15 49.45 49.45 45.70 45.70 3.78 3.78 144.56 144.56 110.80 110.80 16.15 16.15 3.51 3.51 4.76 4.76
152.45 152.19 60.56 58.79 91.90 93.40 82.40 83.90 8.50 8.50 65.50 67.00 6.00 6.00 0.40 0.40 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
98.32 98.57 12.12 12.79 86.20 85.78 59.54 59.04 37.17 36.17 21.86 22.36 0.45 0.45 23.26 23.23 20.64 20.64 1.19 1.21 0.26 0.26 0.17 0.17
2017/18 Proj. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil Paraguay Major Importers 4/ China European Union Japan Mexico
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand).
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks 13.70 0.24 13.47 8.39 4.03 3.81 0.55 1.96 0.66 1.24
2015/16 World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/
2016/17 Est. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/
Production
Imports
216.11 40.53 175.59 68.52 33.21 30.75 4.56 16.43 11.81 2.89
61.86 0.37 61.49 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.05 36.57 19.21 15.64
Domestic Total 213.42 30.04 183.38 23.57 2.67 16.27 4.63 52.54 30.89 18.20
Exports 65.42 10.84 54.58 46.15 30.33 15.41 0.41 0.51 0.30 0.21
Ending Stocks 12.83 0.24 12.59 7.26 4.23 2.91 0.12 1.89 0.48 1.36
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
12.83 0.24 12.59 7.26 4.23 2.91 0.12 1.89 0.48 1.36
226.29 40.58 185.71 72.30 33.28 31.66 7.36 16.17 11.38 2.98
59.90 0.32 59.58 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.01 36.09 18.89 15.59
222.00 30.25 191.75 24.70 2.85 16.84 5.01 52.34 30.24 18.68
64.63 10.52 54.11 47.09 31.32 13.76 2.00 0.55 0.33 0.21
12.38 0.36 12.02 7.81 3.33 4.00 0.48 1.26 0.17 1.05
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
12.52 12.38 0.36 0.36 12.15 12.02 7.81 7.81 3.33 3.33 4.00 4.00 0.48 0.48 1.41 1.26 0.20 0.17 1.17 1.05
236.97 236.73 41.82 41.82 195.15 194.91 74.12 74.12 34.42 34.42 32.50 32.50 7.20 7.20 16.45 16.45 11.46 11.46 3.22 3.22
63.86 63.47 0.27 0.27 63.59 63.20 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 37.68 37.58 19.20 19.20 16.73 16.63
233.79 233.12 31.12 31.12 202.68 202.00 25.99 25.99 3.06 3.06 17.48 17.48 5.45 5.45 53.47 53.37 30.34 30.34 19.61 19.51
67.25 67.18 11.07 11.07 56.19 56.11 48.25 48.25 31.20 31.20 15.25 15.25 1.80 1.80 0.53 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.23 0.20
12.30 12.28 0.27 0.27 12.03 12.01 7.74 7.74 3.50 3.50 3.80 3.80 0.44 0.44 1.54 1.42 0.21 0.18 1.28 1.19
2017/18 Proj. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and Japan. 5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks 4.27 0.84 3.43 0.95 0.37 0.38 0.20 1.57 0.78 0.52 0.27
2015/16 World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil European Union Major Importers 4/ China India North Africa 5/
2016/17 Est. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil European Union Major Importers 4/ China India North Africa 5/
Production
Imports
51.57 9.96 41.61 18.90 8.43 7.63 2.84 15.95 14.61 1.03 0.32
11.63 0.13 11.50 0.39 0.00 0.07 0.33 6.85 0.59 4.27 2.00
Domestic Total 52.19 9.15 43.04 11.41 2.83 6.29 2.29 22.99 15.35 5.30 2.34
Exports 11.71 1.02 10.69 8.16 5.70 1.55 0.92 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.07
Ending Stocks 3.57 0.77 2.81 0.67 0.27 0.24 0.16 1.21 0.52 0.51 0.18
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
3.57 0.77 2.81 0.67 0.27 0.24 0.16 1.21 0.52 0.51 0.18
53.90 10.02 43.88 18.98 8.40 7.85 2.74 17.93 15.77 1.66 0.50
10.93 0.15 10.78 0.35 0.00 0.06 0.29 5.81 0.71 3.53 1.56
53.81 9.00 44.81 11.77 2.97 6.59 2.21 23.80 16.35 5.40 2.05
11.34 1.16 10.18 7.47 5.39 1.24 0.84 0.21 0.12 0.00 0.09
3.25 0.78 2.47 0.76 0.31 0.32 0.14 0.94 0.54 0.30 0.11
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
3.28 3.25 0.78 0.78 2.51 2.47 0.76 0.76 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.14 0.14 0.97 0.94 0.54 0.54 0.30 0.30 0.13 0.11
56.20 56.15 10.21 10.22 46.00 45.93 19.45 19.45 8.63 8.63 8.06 8.06 2.76 2.76 19.27 19.21 17.02 17.02 1.62 1.62 0.62 0.57
11.49 11.20 0.14 0.14 11.35 11.06 0.31 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.25 0.25 6.37 6.06 0.50 0.50 4.10 3.80 1.77 1.76
56.01 56.10 9.53 9.57 46.48 46.53 11.60 11.90 2.75 3.05 6.70 6.70 2.16 2.16 25.34 25.04 17.40 17.40 5.60 5.40 2.34 2.24
11.70 11.37 0.86 0.86 10.84 10.50 8.17 7.87 5.90 5.60 1.45 1.45 0.82 0.82 0.17 0.18 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.08
3.26 3.13 0.73 0.70 2.53 2.43 0.75 0.75 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.17 0.17 1.10 1.00 0.56 0.56 0.42 0.32 0.12 0.12
2017/18 Proj. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil European Union Major Importers 4/ China India North Africa 5/
Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, and North Africa. 5/ Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ Year and Quarter
2016 Annual 2017 I II III IV Annual Dec Proj. Jan Est. 2018 I* II* III* IV* Annual Dec Proj. Jan Proj.
Beef
Pork Red Meat 2/
Broiler
Turkey
Total Red Meat Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Egg
Milk
25,221
24,941
50,387
Million Pounds 40,695 5,981
47,225
97,612
Mil doz 8,565
Bil lbs 212.4
6,300 6,404 6,731 6,740
6,409 6,137 6,239 6,800
12,764 12,595 13,023 13,596
10,233 10,407 10,551 10,400
1,487 1,481 1,479 1,540
11,848 12,023 12,167 12,075
24,612 24,618 25,191 25,671
2,174 2,175 2,187 2,220
53.6 55.3 53.5 53.2
26,305 26,175
25,560 25,585
52,082 51,978
41,541 41,591
5,997 5,987
48,073 48,113
100,155 100,091
8,746 8,756
215.7 215.5
6,510 7,070 6,985 7,195
6,670 6,440 6,580 7,270
13,236 13,564 13,619 14,521
10,425 10,675 10,750 10,600
1,475 1,490 1,490 1,545
12,033 12,305 12,380 12,280
25,269 25,869 25,999 26,801
2,215 2,215 2,240 2,285
54.3 56.2 54.2 54.2
27,590 27,760
26,915 26,960
54,723 54,940
42,275 42,450
6,025 6,000
48,848 48,998
103,571 103,938
8,935 8,955
219.3 218.8
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products Steers 2/
Barrows and gilts 3/
Broilers 4/
Turkeys 5/
Eggs 6/
Milk 7/
Dol./cwt 120.86
Dol./cwt 46.16
Cents/lb. 84.3
Cents/lb. 117.1
Cents/doz. 85.7
Dol./cwt 16.30
2017 I II III IV Annual Dec Proj. Jan Est.
122.96 132.76 112.46 117.88
49.73 51.70 55.59 44.89
88.5 104.7 94.9 86.1
100.4 99.1 96.9 88.0
80.0 74.7 102.1 147.0
18.23 16.83 17.70 17.75-17.85
121.42 121.52
50.38 50.48
93.4 93.5
95.7 96.1
100.3 100.9
17.60-17.70 17.65
2018 I* II* III* IV* Annual Dec Proj. Jan Proj.
120-124 115-123 110-120 112-122
48-50 49-53 47-51 40-44
91-95 92-98 84-92 83-89
77-81 87-93 91-99 96-104
110-114 94-100 96-104 106-114
15.70-16.10 15.35-16.05 15.45-16.45 16.80-17.80
113-122 114-122
46-49 46-49
85-92 87-94
93-100 88-94
100-107 101-108
16.65-17.45 15.80-16.60
Year and Quarter
2016 Annual
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale, National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by farmers for all milk.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use Beginning Production stocks 1/
Item
Beef
Pork
Total Red Meat 5/
Broiler
Turkey
Total Poultry 6/
Red Meat & Poultry
2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan 2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan 2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan 2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan 2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan 2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan 2016 2017 Est. Dec Jan 2018 Proj. Dec Jan
Imports
Total Supply
Exports
Ending Stocks
Total Per Capita Use 2/ 3/
Million Pounds /4 28,986 2,556 30,095 2,875 29,975 2,875 31,387 2,985 31,537 2,985
757 700 680 715 715
25,673 26,520 26,420 27,687 27,837
55.6 57.0 56.8 59.1 59.4
683 757 757 700 680
25,288 26,372 26,242 27,657 27,827
3,015 2,966 2,976 3,030 3,030
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
590 507 507 630 550
24,956 25,576 25,601 26,931 26,976
1,091 1,113 1,113 1,000 1,000
26,637 27,196 27,221 28,561 28,526
5,239 5,588 5,623 5,900 5,900
507 630 550 660 660
20,891 20,978 21,048 22,001 21,966
50.1 50.0 50.2 52.1 52.0
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
1,320 1,304 1,304 1,374 1,274
50,480 52,175 52,071 54,816 55,033
4,322 4,330 4,342 4,272 4,284
56,123 57,809 57,717 60,462 60,591
7,801 8,470 8,505 8,893 8,893
1,304 1,374 1,274 1,419 1,419
47,018 47,965 47,938 50,150 50,279
106.9 108.3 108.2 112.4 112.7
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
832 778 778 825 885
40,260 41,097 41,146 41,823 41,996
131 123 125 130 130
41,223 41,998 42,049 42,778 43,011
6,644 6,713 6,783 6,910 6,910
778 825 885 790 830
33,800 34,460 34,381 35,078 35,271
89.8 90.9 90.7 91.9 92.4
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
201 279 279 325 325
5,981 5,997 5,987 6,025 6,000
50 28 25 40 32
6,232 6,304 6,291 6,390 6,357
569 623 623 655 655
279 325 325 300 300
5,384 5,356 5,343 5,435 5,402
16.6 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.5
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
1,041 1,065 1,065 1,158 1,216
46,789 47,628 47,668 48,395 48,543
184 154 153 174 166
48,014 48,848 48,886 49,727 49,925
7,372 7,469 7,539 7,710 7,710
1,065 1,158 1,216 1,098 1,138
39,577 40,220 40,131 40,919 41,077
107.6 108.6 108.4 109.7 110.1
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2,361 2,369 2,369 2,532 2,490
97,269 99,803 99,739 103,211 103,576
4,506 4,484 4,495 4,446 4,450
104,136 106,656 106,603 110,189 110,516
15,173 15,939 16,044 16,603 16,603
2,369 2,532 2,490 2,517 2,557
86,595 88,185 88,069 91,069 91,356
214.6 216.9 216.6 222.2 222.8
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use 2015
2016
2017 Proj.
2017 Est.
2018 Proj.
2018 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Dec
Jan
Commodity
Eggs Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Exports Hatching Use Ending Stocks Disappearance Total Per Capita (number)
Million Dozen 23.3 8,053.0 123.5 8,199.8
31.1 8,565.0 121.9 8,718.0
27.1 8,746.3 34.4 8,807.8
27.1 8,756.3 32.4 8,815.8
26.0 8,935.0 40.0 9,001.0
20.0 8,955.0 40.0 9,015.0
313.6 995.6 31.1
279.0 1,009.6 27.1
323.0 1,033.7 26.0
323.0 1,033.7 20.0
320.0 1,030.0 27.0
320.0 1,050.0 27.0
6,859.4 256.3
7,402.3 274.7
7,425.1 273.7
7,439.1 274.2
7,624.0 279.1
7,618.0 278.9
2017 Proj.
2017 Est.
2018 Proj.
2018 Proj.
Dec
Jan
Dec
Jan
Billion Pounds 215.7 215.5 1.0 1.0
219.3 1.0
218.8 1.0
Total
U.S. Milk Supply and Use 2015
2016
Commodity Milk
Production Farm Use Fat Basis Supply Beg. Commercial Stocks Marketings Imports Total Cml. Supply Fat Basis Use Commercial Exports Ending Commercial Stocks CCC Donations Domestic Commercial Use Skim-solid Basis Supply Beg. Commercial Stocks Marketings Imports Total Cml. Supply Skim-solid Basis Use Commercial Exports Ending Commercial Stocks CCC Donations Domestic Commercial Use
208.6 1.0
212.4 1.0
10.5 207.6 5.8 223.9
12.3 211.4 7.0 230.8
12.7 214.7 6.1 233.6
12.7 214.5 6.0 233.3
13.6 218.3 6.1 238.0
13.6 217.8 6.0 237.4
8.5 12.3 0.0 203.0
8.4 12.7 0.0 209.7
9.1 13.6 0.0 210.8
9.3 13.6 0.0 210.4
9.4 12.8 0.0 215.9
9.5 12.8 0.0 215.1
9.4 207.6 6.0 223.1
9.2 211.4 6.5 227.1
9.5 214.7 6.1 230.4
9.5 214.5 6.0 230.1
12.6 218.3 6.1 237.0
12.2 217.8 5.9 236.0
37.3 9.2 0.0 176.6
39.0 9.5 0.0 178.5
40.1 12.6 0.0 177.6
40.4 12.2 0.0 177.4
41.8 12.0 0.0 183.2
42.0 11.6 0.0 182.4
Total
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 34 U.S. Dairy Prices 2015
2016
1.6454
1.6050
Butter
2.0670
2.0777
Nonfat Dry Milk
0.9016
0.8292
Dry Whey
0.3804
0.2875
Class III
15.80
14.87
Class IV
14.35
13.77
All Milk 3/
17.13
16.30
Commodity Product Prices 1/ Cheese
Filler
2017 Proj. Dec
2017 Est. Jan
Dollars Per Pound 1.6301.640 2.3152.345 0.8550.875 0.4400.450 Dollars Per Cwt
1.6344 2.3303 0.8666 0.4437
2018 Proj. Dec
2018 Proj. Jan
1.6201.700 2.2702.380 0.7450.805 0.3100.340
1.5351.615 2.2452.355 0.7150.775 0.2700.300
15.3016.10 13.9014.80 16.6517.45
14.2515.05 13.5514.45 15.8016.60
Milk Prices 2/ 16.1516.25 15.0515.25 17.6017.70
16.17 15.16 17.65
1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 35 Reliability of January Projections 1/ Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a record of the January projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent. The average difference between the January projection and the final estimate is 3 million tons, ranging from 0 million to 8.3 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 27 times and above 9 times.
Commodity and Region WHEAT Production World U.S. Foreign Exports World U.S. Foreign Domestic Use World U.S. Foreign Ending Stocks World U.S. Foreign COARSE GRAINS 2/ Production World U.S. Foreign Exports World U.S. Foreign Domestic Use World U.S. Foreign Ending Stocks World U.S. Foreign RICE, milled Production World U.S. Foreign Exports World U.S. Foreign Domestic Use World U.S. Foreign Ending Stocks World U.S. Foreign 1/ Footnotes at end of table.
90 percent Root mean confidence square error interval Percent
Differences between forecast and final estimate Years Below Above Average Smallest Largest Final Final Million Metric Tons
0.7 0.2 0.8
1.1 0.3 1.3
3.0 0.1 3.0
0.0 0.0 0.1
8.3 0.3 8.3
27 15 26
9 10 10
5.3 5.1 6.4
9.0 8.6 10.9
5.4 1.4 5.1
0.1 0.1 0.3
18.4 3.9 18.0
28 20 30
8 16 6
1.2 4.7 1.2
2.1 8.0 2.1
5.3 1.1 5.2
0.1 0.0 0.6
14.7 3.0 14.8
21 11 23
15 24 13
5.0 8.9 5.4
8.4 15.1 9.1
5.9 1.4 5.1
0.2 0.0 0.1
18.1 4.6 16.9
25 21 25
11 14 11
1.3 0.4 1.9
2.3 0.7 3.2
11.1 0.3 11.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
37.7 4.6 37.6
26 17 25
10 7 11
6.6 11.8 11.1
11.3 20.1 18.9
6.4 4.5 6.1
0.2 0.2 0.4
31.9 13.3 26.8
27 17 25
9 19 11
1.2 3.0 1.4
2.0 5.2 2.3
8.4 3.9 8.1
0.0 0.1 0.1
36.2 18.8 36.2
19 16 25
17 20 11
9.6 15.4 12.3
16.2 26.1 20.9
11.7 5.7 9.8
0.6 0.0 0.1
31.8 24.3 29.6
30 19 29
6 16 7
1.6 1.7 1.7
2.8 2.8 2.8
4.8 0.1 4.7
0.0 0.0 0.1
13.9 0.3 13.9
30 13 31
5 7 5
9.2 7.3 10.2
15.6 12.4 17.4
1.7 0.2 1.6
0.0 0.0 0.0
6.6 0.6 6.2
27 19 26
9 15 10
1.4 7.7 1.4
2.4 13.0 2.4
3.6 0.2 3.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
13.9 0.5 13.6
25 15 26
11 21 10
9.5 21.0 9.7
16.2 35.6 16.5
4.8 0.2 4.8
0.5 0.0 0.2
26.6 0.6 26.5
30 6 20 15 30 6 CONTINUED
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 36 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) 1/ Differences between forecast and final estimate 90 percent Years Root mean confidence Below Above Commodity and square error interval Average Smallest Largest Final Final Region SOYBEANS Percent Million Metric Tons Production World 3.5 5.9 4.9 0.0 22.4 21 15 U.S. 1.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 2.5 15 16 Foreign 5.8 9.9 5.1 0.2 22.6 21 15 Exports World 6.9 11.7 3.0 0.1 12.2 23 13 U.S. 8.2 14.0 1.9 0.1 6.7 22 14 Foreign 17.7 30.0 2.8 0.0 11.8 17 19 Domestic Use World 2.6 4.5 3.5 0.1 13.0 20 16 U.S. 3.3 5.6 1.2 0.0 3.6 23 13 Foreign 3.2 5.5 3.2 0.2 12.7 21 15 Ending Stocks World 14.9 25.2 4.2 0.1 18.7 20 16 U.S. 43.0 73.0 2.0 0.1 6.6 8 28 Foreign 17.0 28.9 3.9 0.1 17.2 24 12 COTTON Million 480-Pound Bales Production World 2.6 4.4 1.9 0.0 5.4 23 12 U.S. 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 14 21 Foreign 3.1 5.3 1.9 0.0 5.7 25 10 Exports World 6.4 10.9 1.7 0.1 8.8 20 16 U.S. 11.3 19.2 0.8 0.0 2.7 23 13 Foreign 8.1 13.7 1.2 0.0 8.1 21 15 Domestic Use World 2.6 4.5 2.0 0.3 6.8 19 17 U.S. 5.6 9.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 20 15 Foreign 2.7 4.6 1.9 0.4 6.5 20 16 Ending Stocks World 10.0 17.0 3.7 0.1 11.3 23 13 U.S. 24.7 41.9 0.9 0.2 2.4 10 26 Foreign 10.8 18.3 3.6 0.2 11.6 25 11 1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2016/17 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2016/17. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain.
January 2018 WASDE - 573 - 37 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ Differences between forecast and final estimate
CORN Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks SORGHUM Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks BARLEY Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks OATS Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks SOYBEAN MEAL Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks SOYBEAN OIL Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks
90 percent Root mean confidence square error interval Percent 0.4 0.7 12.3 20.9 3.0 5.1 17.2 29.1
Years Average Smallest Million Bushels 11 0 161 9 140 6 223 1
Largest
Below Final
Above Final
148 467 574 986
4 16 17 20
2 20 19 16
1.1 15.9 17.7 45.4
1.8 26.9 30.1 77.0
2 28 35 24
0 0 1 1
53 97 148 98
1 24 17 12
3 10 19 24
0.8 23.3 6.0 11.6
1.3 39.6 10.2 19.7
1 8 14 11
0 0 0 1
11 37 70 52
16 12 13 23
4 22 20 13
0.3 67.0 4.6 17.5
0.6 113.7 7.9 29.8
2 7 39 47
4 8 17 21
4 10 19 15
3.2 10.1 2.9 34.7
5.4 17.2 4.9 58.8
2,728 2,350 2,066 214
23 26 18 14
13 10 18 20
3.1 23.6 3.5 20.5
5.3 40.1 6.0 34.8
1,418 1,325 1,628 1,206
25 20 23 23
11 14 13 13
ANIMAL PROD.
0 0 1 0 11 1 12 1 Thousand Short Tons 869 15 617 1 644 34 62 0 Million Pounds 409 7 289 0 429 25 290 25 Million Pounds
Beef Pork Broilers Turkeys
3.5 3.1 1.7 2.9
5.9 5.3 2.9 5.0
717 9 400 5 383 24 122 2 Million Dozen
2,111 1,717 1,011 407
24 19 22 18
11 16 13 17
Eggs
1.9
3.3
103 4 Billion Pounds
525
22
13
Milk 1.5 2.6 1.7 0.0 5.7 17 13 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. Marketing years 1981/82 through 2016/17 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2016/17. Calendar years 1982 through 2016 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as the latest annual production estimate published by NASS for 1982-2016.
WASDE-573-38
Related USDA Reports The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
Supply and Demand Database The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Foreign Production Assessments Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE report are provided by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the Foreign Agricultural Service. PECAD is located at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/.
Metric Conversion Factors 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds Metric-Ton Equivalent
= Domestic Unit
Factor
Wheat & Soybeans Rice Corn, Sorghum, & Rye Barley Oats Sugar Cotton
bushels cwt bushels bushels bushels short tons 480-lb bales
.027216 .045359 .025401 .021772 .014515 .907185 .217720
United States Department of Agriculture
USDA’s 94th Annual
Agricultural Outlook Forum
tHe Roots of PRospeRity February 22-23, 2018 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia www.usda.gov/oce/forum
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[email protected]
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates WASDE-573 – January 12, 2018
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