USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW January 12, 2018
SOYBEANS SOYBEANS: The January USDA Supply/Demand and Quarterly Stocks report for the soybean market was considered slightly bullish with the final soybean yield at 49.1 bushels per acre versus the average estimate of 49.5 bushels per acre (49.0-50.0 range). The total production came in at 4.392 billion bushels versus the average estimate at 4.430 billion (4.385-4.475 range) and compared to 4.425 billion in the December report. The US ending stocks came in at 470 million bushels versus the average estimate of 479 million (442-595 range) and compared to 445 million bushels in the December report. The December 1st quarterly soybean stocks were 3.157 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 3.179 billion bushels (2.963-3.306 range). The world ending soybean stocks came in at 98.6 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 99.0 million tonnes (97.0-100.4 range) and compared to 98.3 million tonnes in December. The Brazilian soybean production was 110.0 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 110.1 million tonnes (108.0-115.0 range) and compared to last month's 108.0 million tonnes. Argentina's soybean production was 56.0 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 56.0 million (54.0-58.0 range) and compared to 57.0 million tonnes last month. PRICE OUTLOOK: The USDA reduced the US exports by 65 million bushels to 2.160 billion bushels which was a bit more aggressive than traders anticipated. The surprise was the reduction in soybean yield to 49.1 bushels per acre which took total production down 33 million bushels to 4.392 billion bushels. This offset the already anticipated reduction in exports. December 1 stocks while slightly below the average estimate are still 259 million bushels above last year's stocks. South American production numbers were right on the average estimates and World ending stocks were no surprise at 98.6 million tonnes. The market has already priced in a bearish report down nearly 20 cents on the week, some short covering is likely ahead.
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND US SOYBEANS
Jan
Jan
Dec
Jan
USDA 15-16
USDA 16-17
USDA 17-18
USDA 17-18
Area (M Acres) Planted Harvested
82.7 81.7
83.4 82.7
90.2 89.5
90.1 89.5
Yield (Bu/Acre)
48.0
52.0
49.5
49.1
Beginning Stocks (M Bu) Production Imports Supply,Total
191 3,926 24 4,140
197 4,296 22 4,515
301 4,425 25 4,752
302 4,392 25 4,718
Crushings Exports Seed Residual Use, Total Ending Stocks
1,886 1,942 97 18 3,944 197
1,899 2,174 105 36 4,213 302
1,940 2,225 106 35 4,306 445
1,950 2,160 106 33 4,248 470
Stocks/Use Ratio
5.0%
7.2%
10.3%
11.1%
Jan USDA 15-16
Jan USDA 16-17
Dec USDA 17-18
Jan USDA 17-18
77.73 313.77 133.33
78.02 351.32 144.22
96.62 348.47 150.41
96.49 348.57 150.17
275.31 314.25 132.55 78.02
288.31 329.81 147.27 96.49
301.57 344.72 152.45 98.32
301.45 344.47 152.19 98.57
24.8%
29.3%
28.5%
28.6%
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND WORLD SOYBEANS (Million Metric Tons) Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Crush, Domestic Total Domestic Exports Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW January 12, 2018
CORN CORN: The January USDA Supply/Demand and Quarterly Stocks report for the corn market was considered bearish with the final corn yield at a record high 176.6 bushels per acre versus the average estimate of 175.4 bushels per acre (173.7-177 range). Total production came in at 14.604 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 14.580 billion bushels (14.434-14.750 range). US ending stocks came in at 2.477 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 2.437 billion bushels (2.263-2.550 range). December 1st quarterly corn stocks came in at 12.516 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 12.429 billion bushels (12,230-12,675 range). World corn ending stocks came in at 206.57 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 202.6 million (197.0-207.0 range) and compared to 204.1 million tonnes last month. The Brazilian corn production estimate was 95 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 93.3 million tonnes (86.798.5 range) and compared to last month's 95.0 million tonnes. Argentina's corn production came in at 42 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 41.4 million (40.042.5 range) and compared to last month's 42.0 million tonnes. PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was bearish with US yield at a record high which boosted production. US and world ending stocks were a bit higher than expected. With South America production estimates unchanged from last month, traders might view the news as somewhat supportive as adverse weather could cause future estimates to drift lower. The move under the December lows for March corn leaves a downside technical target at 343 1/2. If December corn takes out the low, 376 is downside target.
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND US CORN
Jan
Jan
Dec
Jan
USDA 15-16
USDA 16-17
USDA 17-18
USDA 17-18
Area (M Acres) Planted Harvested
88.0 80.8
94.0 86.7
90.4 83.1
90.2 82.7
Yield (Bu/Acre)
168.4
174.6
175.4
176.6
Beginning Stocks (M Bu) Production Imports Supply, Total
1,731 13,602 68 15,401
1,737 15,148 57 16,942
2,295 14,578 50 16,922
2,293 14,604 50 16,947
Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industry Ethanol f or Fuel Domestic Total Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks
5,114 6,648 5,224 11,763 1,901 13,664 1,737
5,467 6,889 5,439 12,354 2,293 14,349 2,293
5,575 6,985 5,525 12,560 1,925 14,485 2,437
5,550 6,995 5,525 12,545 1,925 14,470 2,477
Stocks/Use Ratio
12.7%
16.0%
16.8%
17.1%
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND WORLD CORN
Jan USDA 15-16
Jan USDA 16-17
Dec USDA 17-18
Jan USDA 17-18
(Million Metric Tons) Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Feed, Domestic Total Domestic Exports Ending Stocks
601.78 631.93 652.40 650.57 968.23 1,062.20 1,068.01 1,066.73 119.74 163.10 151.61 151.51 214.96 228.75 204.08 206.57
Stocks/Use Ratio
22.2%
209.74 214.96 227.34 228.75 973.45 1,075.99 1,044.75 1,044.56 139.25 135.62 146.48 146.08
21.5%
19.1%
19.4%
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW January 12, 2018
WHEAT WHEAT: The January USDA Supply/Demand, Stocks and Planting Intentions report for the wheat market was considered bearish with 2017-18 winter wheat plantings at 32.6 million acres versus the average estimate of 31.5 million (30.1-32.5 range) and compared to last year's 32.7 million acres. The breakdown is as follows: hard red winter came in at 23.1 million acres compared to 23.4 million last year, soft red winter came in at 5.98 million versus 5.7 million last year and white winter came in at 3.56 million versus 3.5 million acres. The US wheat ending stocks came in at 989 million bushels versus 960 million bushels last month and above the high end of estimates ranging from 855 to 987. The December 1st quarterly stocks came in at 1.874 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 1.851 billion (1.725-2.005 range) and compared to 2.077 billion bushels in December 2016. World wheat ending stocks were 268.0 million tonnes versus expectations ranging from 265 to 271 and down from 268.4 million tonnes estimated last month. PRICE OUTLOOK: The trade was looking for a lower winter wheat planting number, especially in the hard red winter wheat areas. This has taken Kansas City wheat down significantly. The US ending stocks went up 29 million bushels to 989 million bushels on a 20 million bushel reduction in feed/residual. This increase in stocks went right to the HRW ending stocks. A pullback in the July KC wheat/July Chicago wheat spread to the 7 to 5 3/4 cent support zone could be a buying opportunity for the spread with an eventual target of 27 3/4 cents.
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND US WHEAT
Jan
Jan
Dec
Jan
USDA
USDA
USDA
USDA
15-16
16-17
17-18
17-18
Area (M Acres) Planted Harvested
55.0 47.3
50.1 43.9
46.0 37.6
46.0 37.6
Yield (Bu/Acre)
43.6
52.7
46.3
46.3
Beginning Stocks (M Bu) Production Imports Total Supply
752 2,062 113 2,927
976 2,309 118 3,402
1,181 1,741 150 3,071
1,181 1,741 155 3,076
Food Seed Feed/Residual Domestic Total Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks
957 67 149 1,174 778 1,951 976
949 61 156 1,167 1,055 2,222 1,181
950 66 120 1,136 975 2,111 960
950 62 100 1,112 975 2,087 989
Stocks/Use Ratio
50.0%
53.2%
45.5%
47.4%
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND WORLD WHEAT
Jan USDA 15-16
Jan USDA 16-17
Dec USDA 17-18
Jan USDA 17-18
(Million Metric Tons) Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Feed, Domestic Total Domestic Exports Ending Stocks
217.95 735.31 170.10
241.67 750.44 179.20
255.33 755.21 180.60
252.72 757.01 180.19
136.50 711.58 172.84 241.67
147.10 739.40 183.36 252.72
142.67 742.12 182.15 268.42
143.32 741.70 180.85 268.02
Stocks/Use Ratio
34.0%
34.2%
36.2%
36.1%
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW January 12, 2018
COTTON USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND COTTON
Jan USDA 15-16
Jan USDA 16-17
Dec USDA 17-18
Jan USDA 17-18
Area (M Acres) Planted Harvested
8.58 8.07
10.07 9.51
12.62 11.41
12.61 11.35
Yield (Lb/Acre)
766
867
902
899
Beginning Stocks (M Bales) Production Imports Supply, Total
3.65 12.89 0.03 16.57
3.80 17.17 0.01 20.98
2.75 21.44 0.01 24.20
2.75 21.26 0.01 24.02
Domestic Use Exports Use, Total Unaccounted Ending Stocks
3.45 9.15 12.60 0.17 3.80
3.25 14.92 18.17 0.06 2.75
3.35 14.80 18.15 0.25 5.80
3.35 14.80 18.15 0.17 5.70
30.2%
15.1%
32.0%
31.4%
Stocks/Use Ratio
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND WORLD COTTON (Million 480-lb Bales) Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Domestic Exports Loss Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio
Jan USDA 15-16
Jan USDA 16-17
Dec USDA 17-18
Jan USDA 17-18
111.15 96.15 35.42
95.35 106.56 37.62
87.65 119.96 38.48
87.64 120.97 38.37
112.26 35.13 -0.02 95.35
114.77 37.24 -0.12 87.64
119.59 38.46 0.06 88.00
120.83 38.38 -0.02 87.79
84.9%
76.4%
73.6%
72.7%
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
