JEK T
6 [1] : 16 - 29
ISSN : 2301 - 8968
!"#$%&'((&) *+(,) !%-(&.) /$01&) 23",) 4+$(,) 5(&..() ) !"# $%&'(')'*# +%*,'-'.# /'.')0# $1)'# +%*,'-'.0# 2.13"*-"# /'4" !"#$%&'(")"*+ ,%-$#$%./'/%01)"2"' !"#$"%&'()*+,'-$",.,/0,/1(#/234'5%3*6)%/'!2")%0,%0'70,82"/,)%/'7+%9%0%
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`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a=%)9"4%$#6C"(1/'%4$^$4%/<%(;$%;/9$%4"##$)?%"'#% D%V#699A%^")1"54$=+%R%;$"#%/<%;/6=$;/4#%7/5=F%G;$%)$=64(=%=;/2%(;$%<6'C(1/'%/<%:)$$'%5"'"'"%<)61(%#$9"'#% 5A%;/6=$;/4#=%(;"%)$>)$=$'("(1^$%1=%(;$%41'$")%#$9"'#%<6'C(1/'?%'"9$4AW%.%R%J?XOYUXIO%Z%J?JJJJS[S[PQ%\% J?JJJQTTXYPO% \% J?JJJJJQQJPS% \% J?QIJJTSOQPT% \% J?[JUYOJXUPU! "! #$#%&'()*+,-! ! ./01234! 15/1! 6789:70:!
*+%]9"14W%"'(")"b6'6#cA";//FC/9
16
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
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d4$;% 8")$'"% (1':8"(% 8$9"'<""("''A"% A"':% C686>% (1'::1% 5":1% 9"=A")"8"(% H1'#6%#1%E"41?%(1#"84";%5$)4$51;"'%514"%("'"9"'%>1="':% #1%E"41%#1"'::">%=$5":"1%8/9/#1("=%=()"($:1=F% !$'6)6(% D1'"=% 3$)("'1"'% G"'"9"'% 3"':"'% 3)/^1'=1% E"41% VQIII+?% 8$56(6;"'% (/("4% 56";@56";"'% #1% B"56>"($'% E"#6':% #"'% B/("% D$'>"=")% (";6'% QIIY%"#"4";%=$5$=")%TIFIS[?OY%(/'F%M19"%7$'1=%56";% A"':% ($)5"'A"8% #156(6;8"'% "#"4";% '$'"=?% >$>"A"?% =$9"':8"?%>1="':?%#"'%">$4F%e$5":1"'%#")1%7694";%1(6% 5$)"="4%#")1%8$56(6;"'%56";%#1%=$8(/)%7"="%=$>$)(1%;/($4% #"'%)$=(/)"'%A"':%9$'C">"1%OIFTOQ?TY%(/'?%=$#"':8"'% =1="'A"% =$5$=")% OQFUQT?Y% (/'% 5$)"="4% #")1% (/8/% 56";% #"'%>"=")%VD1'"=%3$)("'1"'%G"'"9"'%3"':"'%3)/>1'=1% E"41?%QIII+F &8;1)@"8;1)%1'1%($)#">"(%5$5$)">"%<$'/9$'"%A"':% #">"(%#1"9"(1%=$>6(")%>$)$#")"'%56";%>1="':%#1%B/("% D$'>"=")F% K$'/9$'"% >$)("9"?% 6'(68% 9$9$'6;1% >$)91'(""'%8/'=69$'?%56";%>1="':%#1#"("':8"'%#")1% f"2"%G196)?%=$>$)(1%M69"7"':?%f$95$)?%!"4"':%#"'% E"'A62"':1F% f$'1=% >1="':% A"':% #1>"=/8% 6969'A"% 6'(68%8$>$)46"'%=$="7$'?%A"':%9$41>6(1%>1="':%"95/'?% >1="':%)"7"?%4696(?%#"'%=6=6F%K$'/9$'"%4"1'%A"':%4$51;% 9$'")18%"#"4";%8$>$)46"'%"8"'%>1="':%=""(%>$)"A""'% -"46':"'%#"'%B6'1':"'%9$'1':8"(%("7"9%;1'::"%(1:"% 8"41% 41>"(F% 3"#"% ;")1@;")1% 51"="% >$)91'(""'% ("8% 4$51;% #")1%UJ%(/'F%!$'7$4"':%;")1%)"A"%>$)91'(""'%9$'C">"1% QOU% (/'g;")1F% H"):"% >1="':% #1% >"=")"'% 5$)^")1"=1?%
6'(68% 8$4"=% =6>$)% #1("2")8"'% N>F[JFJJJ?@% ;1'::"% N>FXUFJJJ?@g("'#"'F%e$#"':8"'%6'(68%8$4"=%&%V=6>$)+% N>FUJFJJJ?@% ;1'::"% N>F[JFJJJ?@g("'#"'?% 8$96#1"'% 6'(68% 8$4"=% E% N>FSUFJJJ?@% ;1'::"% N>FUJFJJJ?@g ("'#"'?%#"'%6'(68%8$4"=%L%#"4"9%81=")"'%N>FQUFJJJ?@% ;1'::"%N>FSUFJJJ?@g("'#"'%V&'/'19%OJJT+F % D")1% =(6#1% >$'#";646"'% A"':% #14"868"'% #1% 9"=A")"8"(% #"'% #1>"=")@>"=")?% #1#">"(% 5$5$)">"% 1')9"=1% A"1(6% 6969'A"% 56";% >1="':% A"':% #18/'=69=1% /4$;% 9"=A")"8"(% B/("% D$'>"=")% "#"4";% 56";%>1="':%"95/'?%)"7"?%=6=6?%="5"?%#"'%>1="':%8"A6F% D")1%=$81"'%5"'A"8%7$'1=%>1="':%($)=$56(%A"':%>"41':% 5"'A"8% #18/'=69=1% /4$;% 9"=A")"8"(% B/("% D$'>"=")% A"1(6%56";%>1="':%"95/'F% 3$)("95";"'%>$'#6#68?%>$'1':8"("'%>$'#">"("'% )69";% ("'::"% =$)("% 9$'1':8"('A"% 8$:"1)";"'% #"'% 8$="#")"'%9"=A")"8"(%#"4"9%9$4"8="'"8"'%6>"C")"@ 6>"C")"% ":"9"% H1'#6% #1% E"41% 5$)#"9>"8% ($);"#">% >$'1':8"("'% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'F% ,'1% 5$)")(1% >")"#1:9"% A"':% 5$)8$95"':% 9$'6'7688"'% 8/'=69$'%9$'A68"1%"#"'A"%56";%>1="':%"95/'%A"':% 5$)96(6% 5"18% #"'% =$:")?% ($)=$#1"% =$C")"% 8/'(1'A6?% /;/7!9719:>/4!=/36!?/1@?/1!<6;6/! "("6%5";"'%>$':"2$(F !$95";"=%=65=("'=1%>$)9"="4";"'%8/'=69=1%(1#"8% #">"(% #14$>"=8"'% #")1% >$)14"86% >$)91'(""'?% A"1(6% 5$)6>"%>$)91'(""'%)69";%("'::"%"8"'%56";%>1="':% "95/'F%E$)#"=")8"'%6)"1"'%=$5$469'A"?%9"8"%>$)46% #14"868"'%>$'$41(1"'%($'("':%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'?%<"8/)@ <"8(/)%A"':%9$9>$':")6;1%>$)91'(""'%=$)("%$4"=(1=1("=% >$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%/4$;%)69";%("'::"%#1% B$C"9"("'%D$'>"=")%E")"(?%B/("%D$'>"=")?%3)/^1'=1% E"41F%E$)#"=")8"'%6)"1"'%#1%"("=?%9"8"%>$'$41(1"'%1'1% >:319A9/7!9719$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% /4$;% )69";%("'::"%#1%B$C"9"("'%D$'>"=")%E")"(?%B/("% ,:7E/4/3$!F32G6746!H/I6J O+% <"8(/)@<"8(/)% A"':% 5$)>$':")6;% >"#"% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% /4$;% )69";% ("'::"% #1% B$C"9"("'% D$'>"=")% E")"(?% B/("% D$'>"=")?% F32G6746!H/I6J!=/7 S+% $4"=(1=1("=% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% #1% B$C"9"("'% D$'>"=")% E")"(?% B/("% D$'>"=")?% 3)/^1'=1%E"41F 3$'$41(1"'%1'1%#1;")">8"'%5$)9"'<""(%=$C")"%>)"8(1=%
17
JURNAL EKONOMI KUANTITATIF TERAPAN Vol. 6 No. 1 FEBRUARI 2013
#"'% ($/)1(1=F% e$C")"% >)"8(1=?% =$5":"1% 4"'#"="'% #"4"9% >$':"9514"'% 8$>6(6="'% 5":1% >$9$)1'(";F% e$C")"% ($/)1(1=?% =$5":"1% =695"':"'% >$':$(";6"'% 5":1% 9";"=1=2"%#"'%9"=A")"8"(?%76:"%=$5":"1%"C6"'%5":1% >$'$41(1%4"1'%A"':%>$'$41(1"''A"%=$)6>"F ;+D+$)9(&)E+&.-%)!"#$%&'((& e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h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
18
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e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f"#1%>$)91'(""'%"8"'%'"18%"("6% 86)^"% >$)91'(""'% 5$):$=$)% 8$% 8"'"'F% e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
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
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e$4"'76('A"% A"':% ($)9"=68% #"4"9% ^")1"5$4% 4"1'% "#"4";%8$517"8"'%>$9$)1'(";?%7694";%>$'#6#68%#"'% C6"C"F _")1"5$4% =()"($:1=% 9$)6>"8"'% ^")1"5$4% A"':% #">"(% #1:6'"8"'% =$C")"% 4"':=6':% 6'(68% 9$9>$':")6;1% >$)91'(""'%5")"':%A"':%#1;"=148"'%/4$;%>$)6=";""'F% d4$;% 8")$'"% 1(6% ^")1"5$4% =()"($:1=% 1'1% #1=$56(% >64"% =$5":"1% ^")1"5$4% A"':% #">"(% #18$'#"418"'% 4"':=6':% /4$;%>$)6=";""'%V<#0)"#66%.62'8%",%.62/+?%=$#"':8"'% ^")1"5$4@^")1"5$4% #1% 46")% 1(6% 9$)6>"8"'% ^")1"5$4% A"':% (1#"8% #">"(% #18$'#"418"'% >$)6=";""'% ($)=$56(% V*0<#0)"#66%.62'8%",%.62/+F K6':=1%>$)91'(""'%A"':%#18$968"8"'%/4$;%3">>"=% #"'%H1)=C;$A%VQIIU+%=$C")"%<6':=1/'"4%#">"(%#1="718"'% =$>$)(1%>$)="9""'%VQ+F% f694";%>)/#68%i%A"':%#191'("%W% % hi%R%K%ViQ?%iO?%iS?jF?i'+%%
%
VQ+
hi%R% K%V;"):"%>)/#68%P?%;"):"%5")"':@5")"':%A"':% 5$)8"1("'?% >$)81)""'% >$)65";"'% ;"):"?% >$'#">"("'% 8/'=69$'?% =$4$)"% #"'% >)$<$)$'=1?%>$':$46")"'%>$)184"'"'%#"'%=$5":"1'A"+
>$)="9""'% VQ+% 9$'6'7688"'% ^")1"5$4@^")1"5$4% A"':% 9$9>$':")6;1%>$)91'(""'F%e/$8")("21%VQIYI+%9$9@ 5$)18"'%C/'(/;%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%="A6)%9"A6)%8/'@ =69$'%2"):"%8/("%=$>$)(1%>$)="9""'%VO+F% .28%R%"Q%\%5QiQ%\%5OiO%\5SiS%\%5TiT%\%5UiU%\%5[i[% % % % % VO+ \%5XiX%\%$Q%% B$($)"':"'%W .28% R%% 8/'=69=1%="A6)%9"A6)%2"):"%8/("%V8:g564"'+ "Q% R%% >$)>/(/':"' iQ% R%% >$'#">"("'%8/'=69$'%VN>g564"'+ iO% R%% ;"):"%="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'%)$'#";%VN>g8:+ iS% R%% ;"):"%="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'%(1'::1%VN>g8:+ iT% R%% 7694";%8$46"):"%V/)"':+ iU% R%% 4"9"%>$'#1#18"'%)9"4%156%)69";%("'::"%V(";6'+ i[% R%% 696)%156%)69";%("'::"%V(";6'+ iX% R%% 8/9>/=1=1% 8$46"):"% V"#"% "("6% (1#"8% "#"'A"% "'"8% #1% 5"2";% 696)% 419"% (";6'?% 156% 9$':"'#6':?% "("6% 156% 9$'A6=61+ $Q% R%% 8$="4";"'%"C"8
K6':=1% >$)91'(""'% >"#"% >$)="9""'% VO+?% #1>$):6'"8"'%6'(68%9$'#6:"%>$)91'(""'%="A6)%9"A6)% #"(")"'% )$'#";% #"'% #"(")"'% (1'::1F% E14"% 8/'=69=1% ="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'%)$'#";%"#"4";%.28Q?%9"8"%="A6)% 9"A6)%=65(1(6=1'A"%"#"4";%="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'%(1'::1F% e$5"418'A"%514"%8/'=69=1%="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'%(1'::1% "#"4";%.28O?%9"8"%="A6)%9"A6)%=65=(1(6=1'A"%"#"4";% ="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'%)$'#";F%H1>/($="%#")1%>$)="9""'% VO+%"#"4";%=$5":"1%5$)186(%W k'(68% ="A6)% 9"A6)% #"(")"'% )$'#";W% 5QlJ?% 5OmJ?% 5SlJ?%5TlJ?%5UlJ?%5[%lJ?%5XlJ k'(68% ="A6)% 9"A6)% #"(")"'% (1'::1W% 5QlJ?% 5OlJ?% 5SmJ?%5TlJ?%5UlJ?%5[%lJ?%5XlJ 5QlJ?%%% 5$)")(1%=$9"81'%(1'::1%>$'#">"("'?%=$9"81'%5$=")%7694";% 8/'=69=1%="A6)%9"A6)F 5OmJ?%% 5$)")(1% 5";2"% >"#"% >$'#6:""'% <6':=1% ="A6)% 9"A6)% #"(")"'% )$'#";?% =$9"81'% (1'::1% ;"):"% ="A6)% 9"A6)% ($)=$56(?%9"8"%=$9"81'%=$#181(%>$)91'(""'%7694";%="A6)% 9"A6)%#"(")"'%)$'#";%A"':%#18/'=69=1F%e$5"418'A"%>"#"% >$'#6:""'% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% ="A6)% 9"A6)% #"(")"'% (1'::1?%5O%#1;1>/($="8"'%4$51;%8$C14%#")1%'/4F 5SlJ?%% 5$)")(1%5";"'%>"#"%>$'#6:""'%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%="A6)% 9"A6)%#"(")"'%)$'#";?%=$9"81'%(1'::1%;"):"%="A6)%9"A6)% #"(")"'%(1'::1?%9"8"%=$9"81'%(1'::1%>64"%8/'=69=1%="A6)% 9"A6)%#"(")"'%)$'#";%V>$':")6;%=65=(1(6=1+F%e$5"418'A"?% >"#"%>$'#6:""'%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%="A6)%9"A6)%#"(")"'% (1'::1?%5S%#1;1>/($="8"'%4$51;%8$C14%#")1%'/4F 5TlJ?%% 5$)")(1% =$9"81'% 5$=")% 7694";% 8$46"):"?% 9"8"% =$9"81'% 5$=")%7694";%8/'=69=1%="A6)%9"A6)F 5UlJ?%% 5$)")(1%=$9"81'%(1'::1%>$'#1#18"'%156%)69";%("'::"?%9"8"% =$9"81'%5$=")%7694";%="A6)%9"A6)%A"':%#18/'=69=1F 5[lJ?%% 5$)")(1%>"#"%156%A"':%5$)>$'#1#18"'?%=$9"81'%5$=")%696)% 156% )69";% ("'::"?% 9"8"% =$9"81'% (1'::1% 7694";% ="A6)% 9"A6)%A"':%#18/'=69=1F 5XlJ?%% 5$)")(1% "#"'A"% "'"8% #1% 5"2";% 696)% 419"% (";6'?% 156% 9$':"'#6':% "("6% 156% 9$'A6=61?% "8"'% 9$'A$5"58"'% 9"81'%(1'::1%7694";%="A6)%9"A6)%A"':%#18/'=69=1F
K6':=1%6969%>$)91'(""'%A"':%#1(6'7688"'%#"4"9%
19
JURNAL EKONOMI KUANTITATIF TERAPAN Vol. 6 No. 1 FEBRUARI 2013
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e681)'/?%OJJQ+F e/$8")("21% VQIYI+% 9$'A"("8"'% 5";2"% $4"=(1=1("=% =6"(6%5")"':%($);"#">%5")"':%4"1'%"#"4";%>$)=$'("=$% >$)65";"'% ;"):"% 5")"':% A"':% ="(6% #1=$56(% P% #"'% 5")"':% A"':% 4"1'% #1=$56(% .?% 9"8"% ]4"=(1=1("=% V]+% "#"4";W ]% R% V>$)=$'("=$% >$)65";"'% .+gV>$)=$'("=$% >$)65";"'%P+ %%%%R%V!.g.+gV!PgP+% 3$);1(6':"'% $4"=(1=1("=% #">"(% #18$)7"8"'% #$':"'% 5$)5":"1% C")"% ($):"'(6':% #")1% 86)^"% >$)91'(""'F% &>"514"%86)^"%>$)91'(""'%:")1=%46)6=?%9"8"%$4"=(1=1("=% (1(18%4$51;%5"18%#1>$):6'"8"'?%">"514"%86)^"%>$)91'(""'% ":"8%<#0<%82%V9$4$':86':%9$':;"#">%8$%"("=+%9"8"% A"':%#1>"8"1%"#"4";%$4"=(1=1("=%56=6)%V%""#"%#6"%(1(18F OI/416461/4!1616")=1"4% #")1% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% >"#"%;"):"%V"hg"3+%#18"418"'%#$':"'%;"):"%V3+%#"'% 86"'(1("=%Vh+%>"#"%=6"(6%(1(18?%#$':"'%)696=%=$5":"1% 5$)186(%W
$###
"! " !# "" ! %
N696=% $4"=(1=1("=% 56=6)% 9$'6)6(% &)=A"#% VOJJJ+% "#"4";%=$5":"1%5$)186(%W
Q2 - Q1 Perubahan Q (Q + Q1 )/ 2 Rata - rata Q Elastisitas busur = = 2 Perubahan X X 2 - X1 Rata ! rata X (X 2 + X1 ) / 2 ]4"=(1=1("=% >$)91'(""'% #15":1% 9$'7"#1% (1:"% 5":1"'% A"1(6% W% $4"=(1=1("=% ;"):"?% $4"=(1=1("=% >$'#">"("'?% #"'% $4"=(1=1("=%;"):"%=14"':F @3(-'%-%'(-);(#.( ]4"=(1=1("=% ;"):"% "("=% >$)91'(""'% 9$'6)6(% e"96$4=/'% #"'% n/)#;"6=% VQIII+% "#"4";% 9$':686)% >$)65";"'%7694";%5")"':%A"':%#191'("%">"514"%;"):"%
20
5$)65";?%"("6%8$>$8""'%7694";%5")"':%A"':%#191'("% ($);"#">%>$)65";"'%;"):"%5")"':?%"=69=1'A"%;"4@;"4% 4"1''A"%(1#"8%5$)65";F D"4"9%"'"41=1=?%$4"=(1=1("=%>$)91'(""'%;"):"%4$51;% 8$)">%#1'A"("8"'%=$5":"1%$4"=(1=1("=%>$)91'(""'F%n14"1% >$)5"'#1':"'% "'(")"% >)$=$'("=$% >$)65";"'% 7694";% 5")"':% A"':% #191'("% #$':"'% >)$=$'("=$% >$)65";"'% ;"):"% #1=$56(% 8/$<1=1$'% $4"=(1=1("=% >$)91'(""'% Ve681)'/?%OJJQ+F &>"514"% $4"=(1=1("=% ;"):"% ($);"#">% >$)91'(""'% ($)=$56(% #1'A"("8"'% #$':"'% "':8"% 9"8"% 5$=")'A"% "#"%(1:"%9"C"9%5$=")"'%"':8"%$4"=(1=1("=%1'1?%A"1(6%W Q+% ]#% l% Q?% 9"8"% >$)91'(""'% ($);"#">% 5")"':% #18"("8"'%$4"=(1=?%")(1'A"%($)7"#1%>$'6)6'"'%;"):"% =$5"'A"8%Qo%9"8"%"8"'%#1186(1%/4$;%>$'1':8"("'% A9;I/5!>/3/7B!L/7B!=6;671/!4:>/7L/$)91'(""'% ($);"#">% 5")"':% #18"("8"'% 1'$4"=(1=?% ")(1'A"% 718"% "#"% >$'1':8"("'% ;"):"% =$5"'A"8% Qo% "8"'% #1186(1% /4$;% >$'6)6'"'% A9;I/5!>/3/7B!L/7B!=6;671/J!=/7 S+%%]#%R%Q?%9"8"%>$)91'(""'%($);"#">%5")"':%#18"("8"'% $4"=(1=%($(">%"("6%*0,)%"9D26%/),<,)9?%")(1'A"%;"):"% 5$)5"'#1':%46)6=%#$':"'%>$)91'(""'E "%>64"%#6"%8"=6=%$4"=(1=1("=%A"':%7")"':%#1($961?% A"1(6%W Q+%%]#% R% $?% ")(1'A"% $4"=(1=1("=% =$9>6)'"% A"1(6?% "8"'% #15$41% =$7694";% 5")"':% A"':% (1#"8% ($)5"("=% >"#"% 5/3B/!L/7B!1:1/E!/1/9!4/;/J!=/7 O+%%]#% R% J?% ")(1'A"% 1'$4"=(1=% =$9>6)'"?% A"1(6% 8"4"6% 7694";% 5")"':% A"':% #191'("% "("6% #15$41% ($(">% 7694";'A"% #"'% (1#"8% ($):"'(6':% >"#"% (1':8"(% ;"):"F D$':"'%9$9>$);"(18"'%5$=")%$4"=(1=1("=%1'1?%>")"% >$)$'C"'"% #">"(% #$':"'% 96#";% 9$)$'C"'"8"'% 5$=")'A"% >$)91'(""'% 8/9/#1(1% ($)($'(6% #1% 9"="% 9$'#"("':F @3(-'%-%'(-)!"&9(<('(& ]4"=(1=1("=% >$'#">"("'% #")1% >$)91'(""'% 9$'6)6(% 3">>"=%#"'%H1)=C;$A%VQIIU+%9$':686)%#"A"%("'::">% >$)91'(""'%($);"#">%>$)65";"'%#"4"9%>$'#">"("'?% #$':"'% 9$9>$)(";"'8"'% >$':")6;% =$9"% >$65";% 4"1''A"%($(">%8/'=("'F%!$951")8"'%,%6'(68%9$2"8141% >$'#">"("'?% $4"=(1=1("=% (1(18% #")1% >$'#">"("'% =6=:C76467!4:>/B/6!D
$ & ###
")04)*-,4)#()012,3,*#+,.,/# 51/.,3#%!' ")04)*-,4)#()012,3,*#+,.,/#()*+,(,-,*#%&' !!
%# % ##
!&
! &
!! & #6# % !& !
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
]4"=(1=1(=% 56=6)% >$'#">"("'% #")1% >$)91'(""'% #1)696=8"'%=$5":"1%5$)186(%W
$ & # ##
")04)*-,4)#()012,3,*#+,.,/# 51/.,3#%!' ")04)*-,4)#()012,3,*#+,.,/#()*+,(,-,*#%&'
%
(Q2 - Q1 ) =
(I2 - I1 )
% ##
(Q2 + Q1 ) (I2 + I1 )
!! & 8 #%#&7 % #6# !& ! 8 #%#! 7
E$)#"=")8"'%"':8"%$4"=(1=1("=%>$#">"("'%V],+?%9"8"% #">"(%#1:/4/':8"'%9$'7"#1%W Q+%%],% &% J?% 5$)")(1% 9$)6>"8"'% 5")"':% 1'<$)1/)?% A"1(6% >$)91'(""'% >)/#68% A"':% 9$'6)6'% =$9$'(")"% >$'#">"("'% 9$'1':8"(?% C/'(/;'A"% "#"4";% 5";"'% ;/7/7!=/4/3!=/7!E:3A/I/7/7!=:7B/7!>64J O+%%J%m%]%m%Q?%5$)")(1%9$)6>"8"'%5")"':%'/)9"4?%A"1(6% >)/#68%A"':%>$)91'(""'%)$4"(1<%(1#"8%#1>$':")6;1% /4$;% >$)65";"'% >$'#">"("'?% C/'(/;'A"% "#"4";% E:3I:7B:3465/7$! ;679;/7$! =/7! 32<2"8"'%5")"':%9$2";%"("6%>)/#68% A"':%>$)91'(""''A"%=$C")"%86"(%#1>$':")6;1%/4$;% >$)65";"'% >$'#">"("'?% C/'(/;'A"% A"1(6% 9/514?% 9/(/)?%#"'%>$)69";"'F @3(-'%-%'(-);(#.()6%3(&. e/$8")("21% VQIYI+% 5$)>$'#">"(% 5";2"% $4"=(1=1("=% =14"':% "#"4";% 5$=")"'% $4"=(1=1("=% A"':% (1#"8% ="7"% 9$'6'7688"'%>$)65";"'%=6"(6%5")"':%A"':%#191'("% ="7"?%($(">1%76:"%($);"#">%>$)65";"'%5")"':%4"1'%A"':% 5$)8"1("'%#$':"'%5")"':%A"':%#191'("%($)=$56(F%H"4% ($)=$56(%#">"(%#17$4"=8"'%=$5":"1%5$)186(%W
ES =
Persen perubahan Q A (!Q A ) Persen perubahan PB (!PB )
ES =
(Q2A - Q1A )/ (Q2A + Q1A ) (P2B - P1B )/ (P2B + P2A )
%
E$=")'A"% ]e% #">"(% '$:"(1<% "("6% >/=1(1<% ($):"'(6':% #")1%=1<"(%5")"':%A"':%#191'("%/4$;%8/'=69$'F%&>"514"% =1<"(% 5")"':% ($)=$56(% ="41':% 9$'::"'(1% V/*./),)*)2+% 9"8"% ]e% >/=1(1% =$5"418'A"% ">"514"% =1<"(% 5")"':% ="41':% 9$4$':8">1% V<#&:62&20)+?% 9"8"% ]e% '$:"(1"8"'%5")"':%'$()"4% "("6%(1#"8%5$);656':"'F%D$':"'%#$9181"'%("'#"%]e% =/E/1!=6E/6!971997B/7!<:=9/! 5")"':%($)=$56(%="41':%9$'::"'(1?%="41':%9$4$':8">1%
"("6%'$()"4F e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e$81)"'A"%=$=6"(6%5")"':%9$9>6'A"1%5"'A"8% 5")"':% >$'::"'(1?% 9"8"% >$)91'(""''A"% C$'#$)6':% 5$)=1<"(%$4"=(1=?%>$)65";"'%;"):"%A"':%8$C14%="7"%"8"'% 9$'195648"'%>$)65";"'%A"':%5$=")%"("=%>$)91'(""'F% 3"#"% 2"8(6% ;"):"% '"18?% >")"% >$95$41% "8"'% 9$)"="% $'::"'%9$95$41%5")"':%($)=$56(?%9$)$8"%4$51;%=68"% 9$'::6'"8"'% 5")"':@5")"':% 4"1'% A"':% 9$'7"#1% >$'::"'(1'A"?% A"':% ;"):"'A"% (1#"8% 9$':"4"91% >$)65";"'F%e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
21
JURNAL EKONOMI KUANTITATIF TERAPAN Vol. 6 No. 1 FEBRUARI 2013
!
!
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
!
B"-30%CD"-30%&@"+,&$*%2*+,"%47&2";"&
2*%#/+3""+& KGH) Q(&.D() R(D'+) /&(3%-%-) !"#I ! $%&'((& e$9"81'% 4"9"% 7"':8"% 2"8(6% ! ! ! E"%,"&$%,C .*+;"2"3"+& 6"+@"-+@"& >$)91'(""'%#1"'"41=1=?%=$9"81'%$4"=(1=% F*5*%"& G-12*-3"1/& -0+14#*+& -0+14#*+& ! $%,&5"/+&@"+,& =1<"(%>$)91'(""'%=6"(6%5")"':F%D"4"9% 2*#$*5/& $*%1"+,-43" +& 7"':8"%2"8(6%A"':%=1':8"(%>$)91'(""'% ! 5$)=1<"(% 4$51;% (1#"8% $4"=(1=% 8")$'"% >0;*5&8+"5/1/1& >$)65";"'@>$)65";"'% A"':% 5")6% ! ($)7"#1% #"4"9% >"=")% 5$469% #18$(";61% ! /4$;% >")"% >$95$41F% d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f6:"%">"514"%#"4"9%7"':8"% ! >"'7"':%5")"':%>$'::"'(1%9$':"4"91% ! )*1/#245"+&;"+&F"%"+& >$)65";"'%#"4"9%96(6%#"'%#$="1''A"% ! ! "8"'%9$'A$5"58"'%/)"':%4$51;%96#";% >$)91'(""'%=$)("%$4"=(1=1("=%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':% ! 5$)>1'#";%"("6%9$95$41%5")"':%>$'::"'(1F "95/'% /4$;% )69";% ("'::"% #">"(% #1"'"41=1=% #$':"'% ! 9/#$4% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% L/55@D/6:4"==% #"'% 7"#(&.D()!"$%D%#(&)71&-"<'+(3) <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 41'1$)F% B$96#1"'% #1671% #$':"'% D")1%6)"1"'%=$5$469'A"%#">"(%#156"(%=6"(6%8$)"':8"% 9$'::6'"8"'% 8)1($)1"@8)1($)1"% =$>$)(1% 8)1($)1"% "#! ! >$9181)"'%8/'=$>=6"4%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'F% $8/'/91% V5$)6>"% ("'#"@("'#"+?% 8)1($)1"% $8/'/9$()1% e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k'(68% 9$':$(";61% E")"(%>"#"%(1:"%D$="%A"1(6%#1%D$="%3$9$C6("'%B"7"?% <6':=1%>$)91'(""'?%<"8(/)@<"8(/)%A"':%9$9>$':")6;1% D$="% 3"#"':="951"'% B"7"?% #"'% D$="% G$:"4% H")69F%
22
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
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e6:1A/'/%VQIII+?%7694";%="9>$4%91'19"4% 6'(68% "'"41=1=% )$:)$=1% "#"4";% =$5"'A"8% SJ?% #$':"'% #$9181"'%="9>$4%A"':%#1"9514%#1%9"=1':@9"=1':%#$="% "#"4";%SJ%)69";%("'::"?%=$;1'::"%="9>$4%8$=$46)6;"'% 5$)7694";%IJ%)69";%("'::"F f$'1=%#"("%A"':%#1869>648"'%#"4"9%>$'$41(1"'%1'1% A"1(6W%VQ+%D"("%86"'(1("(1<%"#"4";%#"("%A"':%5$)5$'(68% "':8"?% "'(")"% 4"1'W% >$95$41"'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'?% ;"):"%56";%>1="':%"95/'%VN>g8:+?%;"):"%56";%=$4"1'% 56";%>1="':%"95/'%VN>g8:+?%>$'#">"("'%(/("4%)69";% ("'::"% VN>g564"'+?% 7694";% "'::/("% )69";% ("'::"% V/)"':+?% #"'% >$'#1#18"'% )9"4% 156% )69";% ("'::"% M1/597NJ!=/7!M)N!=/1/!<9/I61/16R!/=/I/5!=/1/!L/7B!16=/$8$)7""'?%#"'%4"1'@4"1'F% e$#"':8"'%#"("%A"':%#1>$)/4$;%5$)=695$)%#")1W Q+% #"("%>)19$)%#1>$)/4$;%=$C")"%4"':=6':%#")1%/5A$8% >$'$41(1"'% 9$4"461% 9$(/#$% =6)^$1% #"'% 2"2"'C")"% #$':"'%5"'(6"'%86$=1/'$)F%f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e$C")"% 6969% <6':=1% L/55@D/6:4"=% #">"(% #1(641=% =$5":"1%5$)186(W % VS+ .%R%5JPQ5Q% PO5O% PS5S% PT5T% PU5U% $%% k'(68%(676"'%"'"41=1=?%9"8"%9/#$4%"("6%>$)="9""'% VS+% #1()"'=)9"=1% 8$% #"4"9% 5$'(68% 41'1$)% =$>$)(1% >$)="9""'%VT+%5$)186(W M/:.% R% 4/:5J% \% 5Q4/:PQ% \% 5O4/:PO% \% 5S4/:PS% \% 5T4/:PT%\%5U4/:PU% \%5[D\%$Q%% % VT+ % E+&.-%)!"#$%&'((&)C%&%"# !/#$4%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%41'1$)%#">"(%#1(641=%=$>$)(1% >$)="9""'%VU+%5$)186(W .%R%5J%\%5QPQ%\%5OPO%\%5SPS%\%5TPT%\%5UPU%\%5[D%\%$%% % % % % % % VU+ B$($)"':"'%W .% R%% B/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'%6'(68%)69";%("'::"%VB:g 564"'+ PQ% R%% H"):"%56";%>1="':%"95/'%VN>gB:+% % PO% R%% H"):"%56";%=$4"1'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%VN>gB:+ PS% R%% 3$'#">"("'%(/("4%)69";%("'::"%VN>g564"'+ PT% R%% f694";%"'::/("%)69";%("'::"%V/)"':+ PU% R%% 3$'#1#18"'%)9"4%156%)69";%("'::"%V(";6'+ D% R%% >*&&9'F%",%.26!L/619!F:<:3A//7J!,T(!!%718"%>$8$)7""'% R23;/IJ!,!! T!#!!%718"%>$8$)7""'%1')9"4 5J% R%% B/'=("'(" $% R%% B$="4";"'%"C"8 5Q?%5O?jFF?%5U!T!U2:C46:7!3:B3:46
H1>/($="% #")1% >$)="9""'% ($)=$56(% "#"4";% =$5":"1% 5$)186(%W 5Q%m%J?%5O%l%J?%5S%l%J?%5T%l%J?%5U%l%J?% 5Q%m%J?% ")(1'A"% 718"% ;"):"% 56";% >1="':% =$9"81'% (1'::1?% 9"8"% >$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%=$9"81'%=$#181(F 5O%l%J?% ")(1'A"% =$9"81'% (1'::1% ;"):"% 56";% =$4"1'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'?% "8"'% #1186(1% /4$;% >$'1':8"("'% 8/'=69=1% 56";% >1="':%"95/'F 5S%l%J?% 5$)")(1% =$9"81'% (1'::1% >$'#">"("'?% =$9"81'% 5$=")% 8/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F 5T%l%J%% 5$)")(1%=$9"81'%5"'A"8%7694";%"'::/("%8$46"):"?%9"8"% =$9"81'%5$=")%8/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F 5U%l%J% 5$)")(1% >$'#1#18"'% )$=>/'#$'% 9"81'% (1'::1% "8"'% 5$)>$':")6;%($);"#">%8/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F
23
JURNAL EKONOMI KUANTITATIF TERAPAN Vol. 6 No. 1 FEBRUARI 2013
k'(68% 9$9141;% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% A"':% C/C/8?% 9"8"%#1:6'"8"'%(1:"%8)1($)1"?%A"1(6W Q+%%8)1($)1"%$8/'/91?%#"4"9%5$'(68%("'#"@("'#"%V5Q%m% J?%5O%l%J?%5S%l%J?%5T%l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
R2 =
JK Regresi JKTotal
k71@K%#1:6'"8"'%6'(68%9$':$(";61%">"8";%>$65";% 5$5"=%VP1+%=$C")"%5$)="9"@="9"%5$)>$':")6;%'A"("%V3% m%J?JU+%($);"#">%>$65";%("8%5$5"=%V.+%#$':"'%)696=% =$5":"1%5$)186(W
FHitung =
KTRegresi KTGalat
B)1($)1"%K%;1(6':%"#"4";%W K% ;1(6':%m%K% ("5$4%U%o?% >$65";%5$5"=%VP1+%=$C")"%5$)="9"@="9"% 5$)>$':")6;%(1#"8%'A"("%($);"#">%>$65";% ("8%5$5"=%V.+ K% ;1(6':%'%K% ("5$4%U%o?% >$65";%5$5"=%VP1+%=$C")"%5$)="9"@="9"% 5$)>$':")6;%'A"("%($);"#">%^")1"5$4%("8% 5$5"=%V.+F
3$':")6;%=$(1">%>$65";%5$5"=%51%($);"#">%>$65";% ("8%5$5"=%V.+%#">"(%#18$(";61%#")1%671@(%=$C")"%>")=1"4% #$':"'%)696=%W
- 3:-1*; #
2: 9%2: '
B$($)"':"'%W T!U2:C46:7!3:B3:46!=/36!E:9>/5!W1 51! eV51N! T!X1/7=/3!:3323!<2:C46:7!W1
B)1($)1"%671@(%"#"4";%W (% ;1(6':%V51+%m%(% ("5$4%QJ%o%!%>$65";%P1%5$)>$':")6;% (1#"8%'A"("%($);"#">%>$65";%("8%5$5"=%V.+%=$C")"%>")=1"4 (%;1(6':%V51+%'%(%("5$4%QJ%o%!%>$65";%P1%5$)>$':")6;% 'A"("%($);"#">%>$65";%("8%5$5"=%V.+%=$C")"%>")=1"4 B;6=6=% 6'(68% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% L/55@D/6:4"=%
24
<2:C46:7!3:B3:46!4:$)91'(""'F%n"96'%6'(68%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'% 41'1$)% $4"=(1=1("=% >$)91'(""'% A"':% "8"'% #1C")1% A"1(6% $4"=(1=1("=%;"):"?%$4"=(1=1("=%>$'#">"("'%#"'%$4"=(1=1("=% ;"):"%=14"':?%#1)696=8"'%=$5":"1%5$)186(F FGH)@3(-'%-%'(-);(#.()*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&
$ ": ###
" "!: #<# : "": !:
B$($)"':"'%W ]31%R%]4"=(1=1("=%;"):"%"("=%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'
"!: >")=1"4% #")1% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "": R% G6)6'"'% "95/'%>"#"%;"):" ": % R%N"("@)"("%;"):"%56";%>1="':%"95/' !: % R%N"("@)"("%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/' #
H1>/($="%#")1%"':8"%$4"=(1=1("=%;"):"%"("=%>$)91'@ (""'%"#"4";%W VQ+%]31% l% Q?% 5$)"(1% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% $4"=(1=F VO+%]31% m% Q?% 5$)")(1% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% 1'$4"=(1=F VS+%]31% RQ?% 5$)")(1% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% $4"=(1=%($(">%"("6%*0,)%)%"9D26%/),$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% 1'$4"=(1=%=$9>6)'"F VU+%%]31% R% $?% 5$)")(1% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% $4"=(1=%=$9>6)'"F JGH@3(-'%-%'(-) !"&9(<('(&) /'(-) !"#$%&'((&) *+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..(
$ &: ###
& "!: #<# : "&: !:
B$($)"':"'%W ],1%% R%% ]4"=(1=1("=% >$'#">"("'% "("=% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'%/4$;%)69";%("'::" "!: "&:
!: %
Y1%
% R%% G6)6'"'%>")=1"4%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'% >"#"%>$'#">"("'%)69";%("'::" R%% N"("@)"("%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/' R%% N"("@)"("%>$'#">"("'%)69";%("'::"
H1>/($="% #")1% "':8"% $4"=(1=1("=% >$'#">"("'% "("=% >$)91'(""'%"#"4";%W VQ+%],1% &% J?% 5$)")(1% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% 9$)6>"8"'% 5")"':%1'<$)1/)F VO+%J%m%],1%m%Q?5$)")(1%56";%>1="':%"95/'%9$)6>"8"'% 5")"':%'/)9"4F VS+%],1% '% Q?% 5$)")(1% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% 9$)6>"8"'% 5")"':%9$2";F
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
KGH@3(-'%-%'(-) ,(#.() -%3(&.) ('(-) <"#$%&'((&) 0+(,)<%-(&.)($01&H
$9 ###
"!: "= #<# ""= !:
B$($)"':"'%W ]e%% R%% ]4"=(1=1("=%;"):"%=14"':%56";%>1="':%"95/'%#$':"'%56";% 4"1''A"
"!: %%R%% G6)6'"'% >")=1"4% #")1% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% ""= "95/'%/4$;%)69";%("'::"%>"#"%;"):"%56";%4"1''A"
!: %%
R%% N"("@)"("%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'
"= %% R%% N"("@)"("%;"):"%56";%4"1''A"
H1>/($="% #")1% "':8"% $4"=(1=1("=% =14"':% >$)91'(""'% "#"4";%W VQ+%]e%l%J?%5$)")(1%56";%4"1''A"%9$)6>"8"'%=65=(1(6=1% #")1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F VO+%]e% R% J?% 5$)")(1% 56";% 4"1''A"% 9$)6>"8"'% 5")"':% '$()"4%#")1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F VS+%] e% m% J?% % % 5$)")(1% 56";% 4"1''A"% 9$)6>"8"'% 8/9>4$9$'($)%#")1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F D$':"'%9$'::6'"8"'%8)1($)1"%$8/'/91?%$8/'/9$()1% #"'%=("(1=(18%A"1(6?%NO?%671%K?%#"'%671@(?%9"8"%#1>$)/4$;% ="4";%="(6%9/#$4%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%6'(68%#1($(">8"'% =$5":"1% 9/#$4% A"':% )$>)$=$'("(1<% 9$2"8141% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'%#"$)";%>$'$41(1"'%A"':%#1:6'"8"'%6'(68% >$)"9"4"'F ;/6TC)8/A)!@O*/;/6/A E+&.-%)!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&) D"4"9%>$'$41(1"'%1'1%#1:6'"8"'%#6"%9/#$4%"'"41=1=% A"1(6% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% L/55@D/6:4"=% #"'% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 41'1$)?% D$':"'% 9$'::6'"8"'% 8)1($)1"% $8/'/91?% $8/'/9$()1% #"'% =("(1=(18% A"1(6?% NO?% 671@K% #"'% 671@(?% 9"8"% #1>$)/4$;% ="4";% ="(6% 9/#$4% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 6'(68% #1($(">8"'% =$5":"1% 9/#$4% A"':% )$>)$=$'("(1<% 9$2"8141% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% #"$)";% >$'$41(1"'%A"':%#1:6'"8"'%6'(68%>$)"9"4"'%VG"5$4%Q+F 3$)5"'#1':"'% "'(")"% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% L/55@ D/6:4"=% #$':"'% 41'1$)% 6'(68% 8)1($)1"% $8/'/91?%
$8/'/9$()1?%#"'%=("(1=(18%>"#"%("5$4%Q%#">"(%#17$4"=8"'% =$5":"1%5$)186(F FGH)7#%'"#%()@D1&1$% B)1($)1"% 1'1% #1($'(68"'% /4$;% >)1'=1>@>)1'=1>% ($/)1% $8/'/91F%f18"%'14"1%9"6>6'%("'#"%("8=1)"'%>")"9$($)% (1#"8%=$=6"1%#$':"'%8)1($)1"%$8/'/91%9"8"%("8=1)"'@ ("8=1)"'% 1(6% ;")6=% #1(/4"8?% 8$C6"41% 8"4"6% "#"% "4"="'% 86"(% 6'(68% 9$'A"("8"'% 5";2"% #"4"9% 8"=6=% 8;6=6=% 1'1?%>)1'=1>@>)1'=1>%$8/'/91%(1#"8%5$)4"86F%e$;1'::"% "4"="'@"4"="'% 6'(68% 9$95$'")8"'% ("8=1)"'% A"':% 5$)5$#"% #$':"'% A"':% ($4";% #1:")1=8"'% /4$;% ($/)1% $8/'/91?%;")6=%#1'A"("8"'%#$':"'%7$4"=F%3"#"%G"5$4% Q% ($)41;"(% 5";2"% #")1% #6"% 9/#$4% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 5"18%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%L/55@D/6:4"=%9"6>6'%<6':=1% >$)91'(""'%41'1$)%="9"@="9"%($4";%9$9$'6;1%8)1($)1"% $8/'/91F%3$'7$4"="'%#")1%;1>/($="%>"#"%G"5$4%Q%"#"4";% =$5":"1%5$)186(%W 5Q%m%J?% ")(1'A"% 718"% ;"):"% 56";% >1="':% =$9"81'% (1'::1?% 9"8"% >$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%=$9"81'%=$#181(F 5O%l%J?% ")(1'A"% =$9"81'% (1'::1% ;"):"% 56";% =$4"1'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'?% "8"'% #1186(1% /4$;% >$'1':8"("'% 8/'=69=1% 56";% >1="':%"95/'F 5S%l%J?% 5$)")(1% =$9"81'% (1'::1% >$'#">"("'?% =$9"81'% 5$=")% 8/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F 5T%l%J% 5$)")(1%=$9"81'%5"'A"8%7694";%"'::/("%8$46"):"?%9"8"% =$9"81'%5$=")%7694";%8/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F 5U%l%J% 5$)")(1% >$'#1#18"'% )$=>/'#$'% 9"81'% (1'::1% "8"'% 5$)>$':")6;%($);"#">%8/'=69=1%56";%>1="':%"95/'F
!"8"% #")1% 1(6% $^"46"=1% "("6% >$':671"'% "("=% #"=")% 8)1($)1"% $8/'/91% ($);"#">% >")"9$($)@>")"9$($)% =6#";%5$)9"8'"%=$C")"%($/)1(1=F JGH)7#%'"#%()@D1&1$"'#% B)1($)1"% 1'1% #1($'(68"'% /4$;% ($/)1% $8/'/9$()1F% D"4"9% >$'$41(1"'% 1'1% #1:6'"8"'% 8)1($)1"% $8/'/9$()1% 964(18/41'1$)1("=%#"'%"6(/8/)$4"=1%V41;"(%B/6(=/A1"''1=?% (*++J! Z5245$! (**(J! F67=6067R6:I=$! (*\(J! f/;'=(/'?% QIIX+F% k71% "=69=1% )$:)$=1% 5$):"'#"% 964(18/41'1$)1("=% #14"868"'% #$':"'% (676"'% 6'(68% 9$':671%">"8";%>"#"%9/#$4%)$:)$=1%#1($968"'%"#"'A"% 8/)$4"=1% "'(")% >$65";% 5$5"=F% f18"% ($)7"#1% 8/)$4"=1?%
1'2%3#40##5'-"3#6*'3"-"-#78*9-"#:%.("*)''*#/8';#:"-'*9#6(2<*#<3%;#=8(';#1'*99'#!"#$%&'(')'*#+%*,'-'.#/'.') &;0(
'(
=(
<4+,1/&2*%#/+3""+
A<22B+<893'-
S/+/*%
)%/3*%/"&*-0+0#/
$'JB?&$=KB?&$IKB? $DKB?&$HKB
$'JB?&$=KB?&$IKB? $DKB?&$HKB
)%/3*%/"&*-0+0#*3%/ @83>?<3"*"%.")'8430-0%*5"1/ '?@A= >!'?#'!' @83>?<3" +/*%/3"1&-"%*+" 1*#4"&"+,-" -0%*5"1/&M/$"N"7 B?H >!'?#'!' @83>?<3" +/*%/3"1&-"%*+" 1*#4"&"+,-" -0%*5"1/&M/$"N"7 B?H
'.>*C' >!'?#'!' "430-0%*5"1/ O'?HHP&=?DCQ
9=
B?CBA
'?TBB '.>*C' >!'?#'!' "430-0%*5"1/ O'?HHP&=?DCQ
B?CAH
$.")%."'#-)'>->? <>/34+, :>/34+, E'F&GB?HDB+1 E=F&B?C=I&+1 EIF&C?'@CLL '@?BD@ EDF&'?DA@+1 EHF&D?C@ILL R&F&GB?I='&+1 E'F&GB?==C&+1 E=F&'?T='L& EIF&C?AIHLL =T?CCA EDF&=?=TDLL EHF&C?BCILL R&F&B?=='&+1
25
JURNAL EKONOMI KUANTITATIF TERAPAN Vol. 6 No. 1 FEBRUARI 2013
9"8"%#1'"9"8"'%($)#">"(%>)/54$9%964(18/41'1$)1("=% V964(18/+F%!/#$4%)$:)$=1%A"':%5"18%=$;")6='A"%(1#"8% ($)7"#1%8/)$4"=1%#1%"'(")"%>$65";%5$5"=F%3$#/9"'%=6"(6% ;2=:I! 3:B3:46! L/7B! >:>/4! ;9I16<2! /=/I/5$! <2:C46:7! 8/)$4"=1%"'(")%>$65";%5$5"=%;")6=4";%4$9";%V#15"2";% J?U+F%f18"%8/)$4"=1%86"(?%9"8"%($)7"#1%>)/54$9%!64(18/F% D")1%;"=14%"'"41=1=%6'(68%8$#6"%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%>"#"% /6(>6(%5":1"'%!"#$%&'#()*!"++#,-)'"(.%($)41;"(%=$96"% "':8"%8/)$4"=1%"'(")%>$65";%5$5"=%7"6;%#15"2";%J?UF% k'(68% 5$=")"'% _,K* /0-+'-(* 1(2-)'"(* 3-&)"+4* #"'' G/4$)"'C$?% >$#/9"'% =6"(6% 9/#$4% )$:)$=1% A"':% 5$5"=%964(18/%"#"4";?%9$9>6'A"1%'14"1%_,K%#1%=$81(")% "':8"%Q%#"'%9$9>6'A"1%"':8"%G/4$)"'C$%9$'#$8"(1%QF% D")1%G"5$4%O%6'(68%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%L/55@D/6:4"=% ($)41;"(%"#"%8"=6=%964(18/%8")$'"%"':8"%_,K%9$4$51;1% Q%V^")1"5$4%4/:%PU%"#"4";%O?JXQ+?%#"'%'14"1%G/44$)"'C$% 6'(68% ^")1"5$4% 4/:% PU% (1#"8% 9$'#$8"(1% ="(6% A"1(6% J?TYUF% e$#"':8"'% 6'(68% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 41'1$)% E/=/!>/B6/7!K2:RC06:71!1:3I65/1!9719/5! 5$5"=?%"':8"%_,K%"#"%#1=$81(")%"':8"%Q%V91="4%Q?JJT% #"'%Q?QOU+F%D$9181"'%76:"%'14"1%G/4$)"'C$%9$'#$8"(1% Q% V=$>$)(1% 6'(68% ^")1"5$4% PT% "#"4";% J?IUY+F% !"8"% #1>141;% 9/#$4% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 41'1$)% 8")$'"% (1#"8% "#"%>)/54$9%964(18/4F 1'2%3#D0##5'-"3#EF"#@83>?<3"*"%.")'-#G/%-'.'*#HI7#!'*#1<3%.'*&%JK#78*9-"#:%.G ("*)''*#/8';#:"-'*9#6(2<*#<3%;#=8(';#1'*99'#!"#$%&'(')'*# R*+2"1"%&6"%"3& ;0(
<4+,1/&.*%#/+3""+
'(&
A<22B!<893'-
=(
S/+/*%
U0M*5 )0+13"+3" S0,&E' S0,&E= S0,&EI S0,&ED S0,&EH R &)0+13"+3" E' E= EI ED EH R
A<33"*%'.")C#L)'>->&1<3%.'*&% VW< G G B?CBB '?CCA B?ACD '?IB@ B?ADD '?IDD B?@=I '?BTD B?DTI =?BA' B?ACT '?IBI G G B?HTT '?AB= B?TI= '?=B' B?ACC '?IBH B?@HT '?BDD B?HHC '?A@T B?TT@ '?'=H
k'(68% 9$'#1":'/=1=% "#"'A"% &6(/8/)$4"=1% #"4"9% =6"(6% 9/#$4% )$:)$=1% #14"868"'% 9$4"461% >$':671"'% ($);"#">% '14"1% 671% D6)51'@0"(=/'% Vk71% D0+% #$':"'% 8$($'(6"'%=$5":"1%5$)186(%W VQ+%&':8"%D0!<93/7B!=/36!($(#!>:3/316!/=/!P912<23:I/46J M)N!($(#!=/7!($]%!>:3/316!1/7E/!<:46;E9I/7J M'N!($]]!=/7!)$%&!>:3/316!16=/:3/316!1/7E/!<:46;E9I/7J!=/7 VU+%&':8"%D0%4$51;%#")1%O?IQ%5$)")(1%"#"%&6(/8/)$4"=1F k71%&6(/8/)$4"=1%#")1%G"5$4%Q%($)41;"(%"':8"%D6)51'@ 0"(=/'% =$5$=")% Q?IXO% 6'(68% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% L/55@D/6:4"==?% #"'% 6'(68% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 41'1$)%
26
=$5$=")% Q?YJJF% H"4% 1'1% 9$'6'7688"'% 5$)")(1% 9/#$4% )$:)$=1% #1"("=% (1#"8% ($)#">"(% 9"="4";% &6(/8/)$4"=1F% f18"% "#"% 9"="4";% &6(/8/)$4"=1?% 9"8"% 9/#$4% )$:)$=1% L/7B!4:5/3947L/!46B76C7!;:7A/=6!16=/"8"1F KGH)7#%'"#%()6'('%-'%D D"4"9%>$'$41(1"'%1'1%#1:6'"8"'%NO?%671@K%#"'%671@(% V41;"(% e67"'"?% QII[+F% D")1% G"5$4% Q% ($)41;"(% 5";2"?% 6'(68% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% L/55@D/6:4"=% '14"1% NO% =$5$=")%J?[JX%#"'%6'(68%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%41'1$)%'14"1% =$5$=")% NO% =$5$=")% J?[XUF% k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k'(68%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%L/55@D/6:4"=%;"=14%671@(% 9$'6'7688"'% ;"'A"% >$65";% 5$5"=% PS% V>$'#">"("'% (/("4% )69";% ("'::"+% #"'% PU% V(1':8"(% >$'#1#18"'% )9"4% 156% )69";% ("'::"+% A"':% 5$)>$':")6;% ="':"(% 'A"("%($);"#">%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%/4$;% )69";%("'::"%>"#"%(")"<%U%>$)=$'?%=$#"':8"'%>$65";% 5$5"=% 4"1''A"% (1#"8% 9$'6'7688"'% >$':")6;% 'A"("% ($);"#">%>$)91'(""'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%/4$;%)69";% ("'::"F% e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f"#1%"("=%#"=")%C)1($)1"%$8/'/91?%$8/'/9$()18"?%#"'% =("(1=(1C?%9"8"%#1>141;%<6':=1%>$)91'(""'%41'1$)%6'(68% #1($(">8"'%=$5":"1%9/#$4%A"':%)$>)$=$'("(1<%9$2"8141% <6':=1%>$)91'(""'%#"$)";%>$'$41(1"'%A"':%#1:6'"8"'% 6'(68%>$)"9"4"'F E(D'1#IE(D'1#) :(&.) *"#<"&.(#+,) 5"#,(9(<) !"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&) 3$)="9""'% <6':=1% >$)91'(""'% 41'1$)% 56";% >1="':%
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
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k71@K% 9$'6'7688"'% 5";2"% >$65";% 5$5"=% =$C")"% 5$)="9"@="9"% 5$)>$':")6;% ="':"(% 'A"("% ($);"#">% >$65";% ("8% 5$5"=% A"':% #1(6'7688"'% /4$;% .@56197B! 4:>:4/3! )\$&&+! =/7! <2:C46:7! =:1:3;67/46! VNO+%=$5$=")%[X?U%>$)=$'%VG"5$4%S+F :"$*5&I(&&>"1/5&XY/G&<4+,1/&.*%#/+3""+&64"7&./1"+,&8#$0+&05*7&94#"7& 1'*99'#!"#$%&'(')'*#+%*,'-'.#/'.')# Z4#$*%& -*%","#"+ 9*,%*1/ Z/1"& :03"5
R$ [4#5"7&-4"M%"3 )4"M%"3&3*+,"7 C TI T@
'H'?ICB AI?BDB ==D?DBB
=H?==A B?TTB
<
.G\"54*
=T?CCALL B?BBB
9=&F&B?CAH R$&F&M*%"Y"3&$*$"1
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k'(68% 9$':$(";61% >$65";% 5$5"=% P?% A"':% 5$)>$':")6;%($);"#">%>$65";%("8%5$5"=%.%#14"868"'% 671@(%V=$C")"%>")=1"4+F%k71@(%#1"868"'%6'(68%9$':$(";61% >$65";%5$5"=%A"':%5$)>$':")6;%($);"#">%>$)91'(""'% 56";%>1="':%"95/'%/4$;%)69";%("'::"%A"':%;"=14'A"% =$>$)(1%#141;"(%>"#"%G"5$4%TF%
:"$*5&D(&&>"1/5&XY/G3?&<4+,1/&.*%#/+3""+&64"7&./1"+,&8#$0+&05*7&94#"7& 1'*99'#!"#$%&'(')'*#+%*,'-'.#/'.')# ;0( .*4$"7&$*$"1 $<%M-"%* Z3"+M"%&*%%0% GB?BBBBICIC B?BBB '( E' B?BBB'DDAT B?BBB =( E= B?BBBBB''B B?BBB I( EI B?'@BBDI=' B?BTI D( ED B?CBHT=BAH B?'BB H( EH C( R B?BDCI'=@A B?='B
3G7/34+, GB?==C&+1 '?T='L& C?AIHLL =?=TDLL C?BCILL B?=='&+1
.G\"54* B?T=' B?BA= B?BBB B?B=H B?BBB B?T=C
)*3*%"+,"+&] L& F& .&J&B?' LL& F& .&J&B?BH +1& F& 2&'&B?'
PQ% PO% PS% PT% PU% ,!
R%% R%% R%% R%% R%% T!!
H"):"%56";%>1="':%"95/'%VN>gB:+ H"):"%56";%=$4"1'%56";%>1="':%"95/'%VN>gB:+ 3$'#">"("'%(/("4%)69";%("'::"%VN>g564"'+ f694";%"'::/("%)69";%("'::"%V/)"':+ G1':8"(%>$'#1#18"'%)9"4%156%)69";%("'::"%V(";6'+ F:<:3A//7J!,T(!!!A6!E:<:3A//7!R23;/IJ!,!T!#!!%718"% >$8$)7""'%1')9"4
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
27
JURNAL EKONOMI KUANTITATIF TERAPAN Vol. 6 No. 1 FEBRUARI 2013
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n"96'%#$)"7"(%)$=>/'%>")"%8/'=69$'%>$95$41%A"':% #1'A"("8"'% #$':"'% 86"'(1("=% A"':% #15$41g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e65%E"5%SFU%&'"41=1=% D"("F% ]4"=(1=1("=% >$)91'(""'% A"':% "8"'% #1C")1% A"1(6% $4"=(1=1("=%;"):"?%$4"=(1=1("=%>$'#">"("'%#"'%$4"=(1=1("=% ;"):"%=14"':%VG"5$4%U+F
1'2%3#N0##O3'->-")'-#78*9-"#:%.("*)''*#/8';#:"-'*9#6(2<*#<3%;#=8(';# 1'*99'#!"#$%&'(')'*#+%*,'-'.#/'.')# 8+,-"& )*3*%"+,"+ O3'->-")'G&B?BI'DBC=' ^./&Q#RK#"*%3'->& '( ^./&G%3'->-")'-#;'.9'J =( ^W/&G%3'->-")'-#,%*!',')'*J B?IT=BT@@H B&J^W/&J'?&$"%"+,&+0%#"5& I( ^Z&G%3'->-")'-#-"3'*9J B?'IDDITHA ^Z#S#RK#2'.'*9#-82->)8-"
;0(
P%*"-#%3'->-")'-
]4"=(1=1("=% ;"):"% "#"4";% (1':8"(% 8$>$8""'% )$4"(1<% #")1% 7694";% A"':% #191'("% 8/'=69$'?% "815"(% "#"'A"% >$)65";"'% ;"):"% 5")"':F% D")1% ("5$4% #1% "("=% 9$'6'7688"'%5";2"%$4"=(1=1("=%;"):"%"("=%>$)91'(""'% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% /4$;% )69";% ("'::"% 1'$4"=(1=F% k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m] ,1m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e% l% J% 9"8"% "'(")"% 56";% >1="':% "95/'% #$':"'% 56";% 4"1''A"% V>$>"A"?% =$9"':8"?% 7$)68?% 9"'::"+% 9$9>6'A"1% ;656':"'% ="41':% 9$'::"'(1% ($(">1% ;656':"''A"% ="':"(% 4$9";% A"1(6% =$5$=")% J?QSTTSYUXF%3$'1':8"("'%)"("@)"("%;"):"%56";%4"1''A"% =$5"'A"8%Q%o%"8"'%9$'A$5"58"'%>$'1':8"("%8/'=69=1% 56";%>1="':%"95/'%=$5"'A"8%J?QS%>$)=$'F 6TO!BC/A) E$)#"=")8"'%6)"1"'@6)"1"'%#1%#$>"'?%>"#"%5":1"'% 1'1%#">"(%#1(")18%5$5$)">"%8$=19>64"'%=$5":"1%5$)186(F
28
!"#$%&'((&)*+(,)!%-(&.)/$01&)23",)4+$(,)5(&..()6%)7"8($('(&)9"&:(-(#)*(#(';)71'()9"&:(-(#;)!#1<%&-%)*(3%)))!"#$%&'()#*#+&,&-%$%&./(/&01*#2#(3
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e")"'@=")"'%A"':%#">"(%#1="9>"18"'%5$);656':"'% #$':"'%>$'$41(1"'%1'1%"'(")"%4"1'%=$5":"1%5$)186(F Q+F%%k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
4@E@4@A6T &'/'19F%OJJTF%p3$)91'(""'%31="':%N"("@)"("%QOU%G/'gH")1q?% E1='1=%E"41F%!1'::6%8$%T?%OU%f"'6")1%OJJTF%3GF%E"41%3/=(F% D$'>"=")F%H49F%QQF &'#$)=/'?%fF!F%"'#%NF]F%h6"'#(F%QIYJF%!1C)/$C/'/91C%G;$/)AW% &%!"(;$9"(1C"4%&>>)/"C;F%G;1)#%]#1(1/'F%!C-)"2@H144% ,'($)'"(1/'"4%E//8%L/9>"'A?%G/8A/ &)=A"#?%MF%OJJJF%]8/'/91%!"'"7$)1"4%]8/'/91%!18)/%G$)"@ >"'%6'(68%!"'"7$9$'%E1='1=F%]#1=1%8$(1:"F%./:A"8")("% W%E3K]F E/$#1/'/F%QIY[F%]8/'/91%!18)/F%L$("8"'%B$(676;F%./:A"8")("% W%E3K] D1'"=%3$)("'1"'%G"'"9"'%3"':"'%3)/>1'=1%E"41F%QIIIF%M">/@ )"'%3$4"8="'""'%&'"41="%B$56(6;"'%3"=")%e"A6)"'%#"'% E6";@56";"'%#1%B/("9"#A"%D$'>"=")%#"'%B"56>"($'% D"(1F%,,%E"#6':%G";6'%&7")"'%QIIYgQIIIF% -;/=;?% eFBF% QIIQF% ]C/'/9$()1C=?% G;$/)A% "'#% &>>41C"(1/'F% 3)$'(1C$%H"44?%]':4$2//#?%n$2%f$)=$A%JX[SO H1)=;4$1<$)?%f%"'#%-F&91;"1F%QIIOF%3)1C$%G;$/)A%"'#%&>>41C"@ (1/'=F%K1<(;%]#1(1/'F%3)$'(1C$@H"44?%,'CF?%]':4$2//#%L41<% n$2%f$)=$A%JX[SOF ,'()141:"(/)?% !F-FF% QIXYF% ]C/'/9$()1C% !/#$4=?% G$C;'1`6$=% r%&>>41C"(1/'=F%3)$'(1C$%H"44?%]':4$2//#?%n$2%f$)=$A% JX[SOFf/;'=(/'?%fFF%QIYXF%]C/'/9$()1C%!$(;/#=F%G;1)#% ]#1(1/'F%!C-)"2@H144%E//8%L/9>"'A?%G/8A/F f/;'=(/'?% fF% QIYXF% ]C/'/9$()1C% !$(;/#=F% G;1)#% ]#1(1/'F% !C-)"2@H144%E//8%L/9>"'A?%G/8A/ B/6(=/A1"''1=?%&F%QIXXF%G;$/)A%/<%]C/'/9$()1C=W%&'%,'()/C6C@ (1/'%]i>/=1(1/'%/<%]C/'/9$()1C%!$(;/#=F%e$C/'#%]#1(1/'F% H")>$)%rN/2%36541=;$)?%,'CF B/6(=/A1"''1=?% &F% QIXIF% !/#$)'% !1C)/$C/'/91C=F% e$C/'#% ]#1(1/'F%!C!144"'%3)$==%M(#F?%M/'#/'%"'#%E"=1':%=(/'$F !"'812?%nF%-)$:/)AF%OJJJF%!20$%0)%"'G3#0#&,F%f141#%,F%f"@ 8")("%W%])4"'::"F !C]"C;$)'?%0F%&F%QIISF%!20$%0)%"'G3#0#&,'H,3"#'='!20+23%D )%0';#0)2&:#"2"F%f"8")("%W%3GF%e"4$95"%]95"'%3"()1"F 3">>"=?%fF%MF%#"'%!F%H1)=C;$AF%QIIUF%G3#0#&,'!"'"7$)1"4F%f141#% ,F%f"8")("%W%E1'")6>"%&8=")"F 31'#1C8?%NFEF%"'#%DFMF%N651'<$4#F%QIYQF%]C/'/9$()1C%!/#$4=% "'#% ]C/'/91C% K/)$C"=(=F% !C-)"2@H144% ,'($)'"(1/'"4% E//8%L/9>"'A?%G/8A/F e"96$4=/'?%3F&F%#"'%0FDF%n/)#;"6=F%QIIIF%H,3"#DG3#0#&,F% ]#1=1% B$$9>"(% 5$4"=F% L$("8"'% B$$'"9F% f"8")("% W% ])@ 4"'::"F e/$8")("21F% QIYIF%!",0/,:' >%/%"' G3#0#&,' !2")%0,%0' I2#",' +%0'-:6,3%/,F%L$("8"'%B$#6"F%f"8")("%W%L_F%N"7"2"41F e6#")9"'?%&F%OJJJF%I2#",'G3#0#&,'H,3"#F%]#1=1%B$(1:"F%E3K]% ./:A"8")("F%L$("8"'%B$#$4">"'F e6#7"'"F%QII[F%H2)#+2'()%),/),3F%]#1=1%,_F%E"'#6':%W%3$'$)51(% G")=1(/%E"'#6':F e681)'/?% eF% OJJQF% !20$%0)%"' I2#",' H,3"#23#0#&,F% ]#1=1% B$#6"F% L$("8"'% B$419"% 5$4"=F% f"8")("% W% 3GF% N"7"% -)"@ C7=2!F:34/=/017"A"?% KF% QIIXF% pe$)1% 3$':"'(")% ]8/'/918"% W%G3#0#&,3%D &,3"#qF%]#1=1%B$#6"F%E3K]%./:A"8")("F%L$("8"'%B$#6"F%
29